Can McCain Beat Clinton?

[Person Man]

He may be too old to campaign but people really dislike Hillary. When she does that laugh, I know people that have to turn off their TV.

Although, Bush has shown us that "Anybody but X" does not work. Clinton will simply have to show that her opponent is unacceptable.

[Person Man]

I guess it could happen and it has before...but it seems unlikely...

[Person Man]

Easily.
People will say it's sexism, but polls show that McCain is uniquely strong against each democrat. If Clinton were facing any other Republican, she would have a way to win, but McCain would not give her an inch.

Will he be able to hold out?

[Person Man]

McCain has the best shot, especially against Clinton, but right now Democrats should be favored to win, even in McCain v. Clinton.

Thats not to say the Democrats won't blow it...again.

My thoughts exactly.

[Person Man]

Maybe she will even do better in the west.

[Person Man]

If McCain runs against Hillary he will win Ohio easily and thus the election.

Even if we assume the first part is correct, the second doesn't have to be:

Imagine if we LOSE the popular vote and win this way....

[Person Man]

Clinton could actually sweep the sun belt on top of her popularity with hispanics.

[Person Man]

Perhaps Hillary will unite the GOP.  But so did Bush, and he only barely won; most surveys show that the GOP has only lost voters to the Democrats.  I don't think that uniting the Republican party again will suffice.  I also remain in doubt that McCain can unite the Republican party.  He didn't do much better in SC than he did eight years ago (pulling around 30% both times) and he is loathed by Rush Limbaugh and his ilk.

To the poster above who said Ohio likes moderate or maverick Republicans - perhaps.  But Mike DeWine was pretty independent; a member of the Gang of 14, I think.  The GOP base didn't mind punishing him for that, and so he lost by a sizeable margin to a very liberal Democrat.

Finally, I think a lot of McCain's support is based on the impression that he isn't your typical Republican and thus whatever is wrong with the GOP, he surely must be different.  Unfortunately he remains a staunch supporter of the war, which turns off many independents; and he favors a moderate solution for immigration, which is enough to make many Republicans stay home.  I think a few well-constructed ads that inform voters of his specific positions will do a great deal of harm to his image.

That's a very eloquent way of putting it, yes. Also the fact that we don't know what his positions really are is something everyone should know.

[Person Man]

15 swing states. Wow.

[Person Man]

The reason President Bush's approval rating is at 37%...is because 15% of Republicans who supported him during the '04 election, when his approval was 45-50%, are not currently approving. Take 10-15% and add it onto 37%...and he'd be right back around 50% where he was in November 2004. I expect this to happen by the time the convention rolls around and Republicans see him speaking at the convention, ect.

If you mean Bush is -15% because of dwindling Republican support, that is close to right.  But taking 15% of self-identified Republicans (extremely generously) considered as a third of the voting populace only totals 5%, which added back maybe gives you 40% depending on the poll you use.  Bush's approval stands at about 25% among independents/moderates, and you probably do not need all your fingers to count it among Democrats/liberals.

This thread is about McCain and Clinton, but the election will be significantly about Bush.  RRB & Jeff from NC are right in highlighting that the year is an uphill climb for the GOP.  You cannot simply start with 2004 and add or subtract a points here and there.  The Republican ranks have thinned in recent years as was mentioned.  The gains in self-identified independents accounts for basically all of that, however those cannot be expected to just "come home" to beat Hillary.  Iraq may not be a huge negative but is not a winning issue for them, and the economy figures to me to be a tough sell too.  Just like the hatred of Bush was not enough to topple him in 2004, the hatred of Hillary will not be enough to knock her off in 2008.

Definitely the Dems can blow it, and obviously there is a lot of time for things to change.  McCain has a real chance.  But if we maintained the current environment through the nominating and the hypothetical matchups and turned it into the final one-on-one, I think you could clearly see an edge for the Democrats.

I would give it 51-48. Things are worse for the Republicans in the news, but they are the incumbents and though there a more democrats, when you remove the DINOs and RINOs from the pack,  there could still be slightly more republicans. If that wasn't the case, I would give the dems a 52.5-46.5 advantage and if the GOP wasn't the incumbent, I would give the dems a similiar spread of what they had last time in 2006, about 54-45. The only way I can see the Republicans winning is if the economy recovers and that Hillary runs yet another horrible campaign for the dems. Then I see similiar margins as in 2004, otherwise it will be like 2000 all over again and we would have learned nothing. Iraq won't change anything, I don't think. People already know that it is unpredictable and that there is nothing they can do about it unless a president with reasonable expectations about Iraq wins.



This is just what I see.

If EVERYTHING goes according to plans for the DNC, I see this-

If things turn around for the GOP- I see this.