The reason President Bush's approval rating is at 37%...is because 15% of Republicans who supported him during the '04 election, when his approval was 45-50%, are not currently approving. Take 10-15% and add it onto 37%...and he'd be right back around 50% where he was in November 2004. I expect this to happen by the time the convention rolls around and Republicans see him speaking at the convention, ect.
If you mean Bush is -15% because of dwindling Republican support, that is close to right. But taking 15% of self-identified Republicans (extremely generously) considered as a third of the voting populace only totals 5%, which added back maybe gives you 40% depending on the poll you use. Bush's approval stands at about 25% among independents/moderates, and you probably do not need all your fingers to count it among Democrats/liberals.
This thread is about McCain and Clinton, but the election will be significantly about Bush. RRB & Jeff from NC are right in highlighting that the year is an uphill climb for the GOP. You cannot simply start with 2004 and add or subtract a points here and there. The Republican ranks have thinned in recent years as was mentioned. The gains in self-identified independents accounts for basically all of that, however those cannot be expected to just "come home" to beat Hillary. Iraq may not be a huge negative but is not a winning issue for them, and the economy figures to me to be a tough sell too. Just like the hatred of Bush was not enough to topple him in 2004, the hatred of Hillary will not be enough to knock her off in 2008.
Definitely the Dems can blow it, and obviously there is a lot of time for things to change. McCain has a real chance. But if we maintained the current environment through the nominating and the hypothetical matchups and turned it into the final one-on-one, I think you could clearly see an edge for the Democrats.
