What is a swing state?

[Person Man]

and what are those states? ...or something else (explain). Perhaps it's just states where both parties have to spend X amount of money or have a certain portion of the congressional delegation. (that would make MS,AR swingers though)

[gorkay]

In addition to one where both parties seem to have a good chance of winning, I usually think of a swing state as one that has enough EVs to make it a plum target... although if this election is as close as the last two, virtually any state would qualify.

[Padfoot]

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin are the states I think have a chance of flipping depending on the circumstances.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin are the states I think have a chance of flipping depending on the circumstances.

Change NJ with NC and I would have to agree.

[auburntiger]

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin are the states I think have a chance of flipping depending on the circumstances.

I would take out NJ and put in PA

[MarkWarner08]

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin are the states I think have a chance of flipping depending on the circumstances.

I would take out NJ and put in PA

If McCain's the GOP's nominee, add Oregon and Minnesota.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Even HILLARY beats McCain in MN by a fairly wide margin.

[MarkWarner08]

Even HILLARY beats McCain in MN by a fairly wide margin.

Really? If the Democrats nominate Al Franken...

[Verily]

Even HILLARY beats McCain in MN by a fairly wide margin.

Really? If the Democrats nominate Al Franken...

Franken polls respectably well against Coleman. If he loses, he's certainly not going to drag down the Presidential candidate.

[MarkWarner08]

Even HILLARY beats McCain in MN by a fairly wide margin.

Really? If the Democrats nominate Al Franken...

Franken polls respectably well against Coleman. If he loses, he's certainly not going to drag down the Presidential candidate.

If Coleman blows out Franken (which is possible, though not likely), the higher suburban vote could hurt the Democratic nominee. It won't matter anyway because if the Democratic nominee loses Minnesota, he'll lose the general election.

[Person Man]

I think that the MUST WIN states are
NM and CO or NV or OH ...if any party can sweep ALL of those states, while keeping ALL of their own, they have a mandate.

[Hatman 🍁]

Don't forget Arkansas

[Person Man]

The GOP needs that. The dems don't.

[Reignman]

I think the political map will look a lot different in '08 than '00/'04, but I wouldn't be surprised if in the home stretch the states that look like surprise wins default to their more historic leaniencies.

[Person Man]

I think the political map will look a lot different in '08 than '00/'04, but I wouldn't be surprised if in the home stretch the states that look like surprise wins default to their more historic leaniencies.

For example?

[12th Doctor]

A swing state is pretty much any state that has been within 10% for at least the last to elections.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin, Arkansas, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, and Oregon.

[Tender Branson]

For 2008 it´s too early to tell, especially if Romney is the nominee.

Generally I would say NV, CO, NM, MO, IA, WI, OH and FL can be considered swing states.

VA and WV are possible candidates as well.

If it´s Clinton vs. someone other than Huckabee or Thompson, AR is a swing state as well.

OR, MN, MI, PA and NH are likely to remain Democratic next year.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin, Arkansas, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, and Oregon.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

My definition of a swing state has nothing to do with past results, but with  future results.

For a state to be a "swing state," it simply needs to be competitive enough such that either candidate could still win it even if the national popular vote is within three or four points.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I wouldn't consider NC a swing state yet, unless Romney wins the nomination. Then we can consider it a lean Democratic state. Same with Colorado. Rudy lead Hillary by 9% in the first poll taken there. They are both trending Democrat, but not yet swing states.

PA, WS, MI, OH, FL, WV, VA, NM, NH, and OR will all be swing states in the upcoming election. If Rudy and Clinton are nominated, we can add CT and NJ into the mix.

I think Minnesota will remain Democratic, but it has moved closer to the GOP in recent elections.

[Politico]

We will know the swing states after each party chooses its nominee. After the dust settles and each party has its nominee, many polls will be conducted. After analyzing the results of these polls and taking other factors into consideration (i.e., historical trends, campaign infrastructure already in place, proximity to the nominee's home state, etc.), each campaign will devise a strategy to win the election. The states that each campaign most heavily focuses their resources (i.e., ground operations, rallies, conferences, advertising, etc.) on will be the swing states, or the "initial" swing states if you will. Of course, the number of swing states will most likely increase or decrease as the campaign progresses. Obviously that number may change for any number of reasons.

All in all, I expect there to be quite a few "initial" swing states no matter who is nominated. Let's hope for a fun and exciting presidential campaign!

[user60521]

In 2004 the swing states were Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, and Pennsylvania.  For 2008 I would take Pennsylvania and Colorado out and add Virginia, West Virginia, Missouri, and Arkansas.  I base this on 2004 and 2006 and current opinion polls.

[Person Man]

In 2004 the swing states were Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, and Pennsylvania.  For 2008 I would take Pennsylvania and Colorado out and add Virginia, West Virginia, Missouri, and Arkansas.  I base this on 2004 and 2006 and current opinion polls.

Well, Colorado has become close. All major candidates are now within 4 points of eachother.