Crazy 2008 What-if: Clinton/Richardson vs McCain/Pawlenty vs Paul/Barr

[defe07]

Crazy 2008:

Let's assume that Hillary Clinton manages to have the super-delegates on her side and is able to clinch the nomination, beating Barack Obama at the Democratic Convention. She selects Bill Richardson as her VP.

John McCain is able to clinch the Republican nomination but Ron Paul supporters have a strong showing at the Convention. He selects Tim Pawlenty as his VP.

Running as an independent, endorsed by the Libertarian, Constitution, Reform and other third parties, Ron Paul and Bob Barr are running.

I'll also assume that there's a huge signal of a depression few months before the Election. So:
what would a map look like? popular vote? electoral vote? Thanks!

[Ban my account ffs!]

Paul pulls away with younger votes in the west and more liberal REpublicans in the Northeast.

McCain performs strongly in the south and the plains.

Clinton, like her husband, wins because Paul splits the conservative vote.

[defe07]

Paul pulls away with younger votes in the west and more liberal REpublicans in the Northeast.

McCain performs strongly in the south and the plains.

Clinton, like her husband, wins because Paul splits the conservative vote.

Any popular vote %? Thanks!

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Paul pulls that 5% he got in the Primaries away from playing World of Warcraft and working at repair shops, leading to a nearly identical McCain victory, except with some morons going to the polls rather than staying home and yelling at their wife and kids/friends about the gold standard and imperialism.

[specific_name]

interesting scenario Defe:

Okay first Clinton is in bad shape because she's perceived as stealing the nom. However, dems rally to her because of a potential down slump in the economy.

Paul has little impact because he's perceived as far from the mainstream and a economically right message doesn't work with the electorate when the economy is looking bad.

McCain holds a decent position because he doesn't get bloodied in the primary fight and conservatives come around to him strongly. However, he advocates no intervention in the economic problems that are looming...sealing his fate, since a panic is on the horizon.

53% Clinton
45% McCain
2% Paul

[auburntiger]

Paul pulls away with younger votes in the west and more liberal REpublicans in the Northeast.

McCain performs strongly in the south and the plains.

Clinton, like her husband, wins because Paul splits the conservative vote.

It would take more than a strong showing with Paul to flip TN and LA