Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee

[Eraserhead]

I actually agree with Edwards' people.  Too many first-time voters, too any young voters.  Kind of chronic during caucus polling.  I think Clinton is probably in the best position coming into IA (relative to the results here), but we'll see.

Hillary leads by 6% among Democrats. If those indys don't show up for Obama...

Yeah.  Hillary has Democrats and the most likely caucusgoing demographics.  Edwards has...well, I'm not quite sure what he has, and I think he's biggest wildcard.  I haven't seen internals on whether his supporters tend to be liberal anti-war Democrats, or independents who think he's moderate.  The more it's the former, the better for him.

Then again, Vorlon seems to disagree, and he's the Last Word.

He is predicting an Obama victory correct?

[Cubby]

The Bradley effect is pretty small in the first place, even smaller amongst Democrats, and even smaller than that amongst Democrats committed enough to go to the caucus.  It won't be an issue.

While I agree that the Bradley effect is small in Democrat primaries and caucuses compared to in general elections, I disagree that the Bradley effect is completely negligible among Democratic voters. I believe it may very well be relatively significant, particularly in predominantly caucasian states such as Iowa and New Hampshire, for example. Go read up on the polls that pitted Jesse Jackson against Michael Dukakis in 1988, especially in places like Wisconsin, and compare them to the actual results. There is no doubt the Bradly effect was significant in 1988 in a number of Democratic primaries and caucuses.

As for 2008, this is merely a suspicion on my part. I may be wrong, and I actually hope that I am. We will find out Thursday.

The Bradley Effect may still be a factor. But much less of one than back in the 80's. First of all, Obama isn't involved with Jackson, Sharpton, Lewis, etc. so he is seen as being separate from the black establishment. Second of all, people are less racist today than they were then. I'm not saying racism is dead, but its far less acceptable or widespread than in 1988. And thirdly, if people have last minute doubts about Obama, it will be because of his supposed inexperience, not his race. (Also, getting his supporters to show up at the caucus will make a big difference).

[ShadowRocket]

The thing that interests me about this is that the DM Register got the correct order of the candidates right in '04. So its worth wondering whether or not history will repeat itself tommorow.

But I still think Iowa is Edwards' to lose simply because pretty much every poll that has been done on second choices show him with a clear lead over Obama and Hillary. So I'm going to stand by my prediction of an Edwards victory, Obama taking second place, and Hillary falling in third.

[Flying Dog]

But I still think Iowa is Edwards' to lose simply because pretty much every poll that has been done on second choices show him with a clear lead over Obama and Hillary. So I'm going to stand by my prediction of an Edwards victory, Obama taking second place, and Hillary falling in third.

2nd Choices could actually benefit Obama if supporters of Kucinich, Richardson and Biden follower  the advice of their candidates and caucas 2nd choice for Obama. (This is, of course, only if the rumors prove to be true)

[Eraserhead]

But I still think Iowa is Edwards' to lose simply because pretty much every poll that has been done on second choices show him with a clear lead over Obama and Hillary. So I'm going to stand by my prediction of an Edwards victory, Obama taking second place, and Hillary falling in third.

2nd Choices could actually benefit Obama if supporters of Kucinich, Richardson and Biden follower  the advice of their candidates and caucas 2nd choice for Obama. (This is, of course, only if the rumors prove to be true)

If these rumors turn out to be true, Iowa could be a blowout on the Demoratic side. We shall see. I'm not buying it yet.

[Jacobtm]

I feel like because of Edwards' rural support, and the fickleness of young voters, that Edwards will end up ahead of Obama. I'm not sure where Clinton will fall, but Edwards ahead of Obama is what I'm feeling...

Probably dead wrong, but we'll see in about 21 hours.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I feel like because of Edwards' rural support, and the fickleness of young voters, that Edwards will end up ahead of Obama. I'm not sure where Clinton will fall, but Edwards ahead of Obama is what I'm feeling...

Probably dead wrong, but we'll see in about 21 hours.

It's not just about the fickleness of young voters... they just never show up. 

[Aizen]

Des Moines Reigster wins again.

[Verily]

Des Moines Reigster wins again.

They didn't quite nail the order this time, though they did get that Obama would be well ahead of Clinton and Edwards. Zogby (!) nailed the order but predicted a much more even split between candidates.

[Tender Branson]

Des Moines Reigster wins again.

And their editorial board was once again wrong in endorsing Clinton and McCain ...

[Eraserhead]

Des Moines Reigster wins again.

Ann Salazar = Poll God.

[CultureKing]

I will never again doubt the Des Moines Register. EVER.

[TheresNoMoney]

They basically nailed it again!