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Author Topic: official Iowa Republican results thread  (Read 9313 times)
Gabu
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« Reply #100 on: January 03, 2008, 10:46:43 pm »

They just shifted Chuck Norris into an even more prominent position on the stage.

Well of course they did; do you think they wanted a Norris roundhouse to the face?
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CultureKing
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« Reply #101 on: January 03, 2008, 10:47:24 pm »

They just shifted Chuck Norris into an even more prominent position on the stage.

Well of course they did; do you think they wanted a Norris roundhouse to the face?
Now he is recognizing the "patriots" behind him. Is Chuck Norris holding him hostage or something?
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« Reply #102 on: January 03, 2008, 10:48:32 pm »

whose the blonde?


Norri's wife
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Reluctant Republican
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« Reply #103 on: January 03, 2008, 10:49:29 pm »

Based on the numbers, it looks like the Democratic turnout for the caucuses is going to double the Republicans. Maybe the typical Iowa Republican just cares less about politics than the typical Iowa Democrat, but this is a 50/50 state in general elections, that is a huge difference. What is everyone's opinion on this?

We're screwed. Unless we nominate McCain, but the base would not come out for him.

That assumption is not backed up by any polls that I know of.

They hate him because of McCain/Feingold and they don't trust him on immigration. Donít get me wrong, I think he could beat Clinton but Iím not too sure about Obama. Iím starting to think the man is destined to be president. He's a compromise choice whereas Obama is someone the Democrats seem really excited about, and their's not as much of an energy to keep him out of the white house as their is with Clinton.

But hey, I predicted a third place finish for Paul, so I don't really have a good track record here.

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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #104 on: January 03, 2008, 10:51:45 pm »

Foreigners must think American politics is trivial business that is driven by uninformed voters who are swayed by the likes of Chuck Norris and Oprah Winfrey.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #105 on: January 03, 2008, 10:52:11 pm »

As of now, it looks like Zogby actually came closest to predicting the final results on the GOP side.


Actually, maybe Des Moines Register was actually closer.  I don't know.  Both Zogby and DMR were pretty close.  Insider Advantage wasn't bad either.  Strategic Vision didn't do so well.
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« Reply #106 on: January 03, 2008, 10:52:30 pm »

Iowa Republican Caucuses Results 
Candidate   Votes *   %
Mike Huckabee    35,257   34%
Mitt Romney    25,995   25%
Fred Thompson    13,786   13%
John McCain    13,473   13%
Ron Paul    9,992   10%
Rudy Giuliani    3,571   3%
Duncan Hunter    452   0%
Tom Tancredo    3   0%

Fred over McCain again.
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« Reply #107 on: January 03, 2008, 10:53:07 pm »

whose the blonde?

looks like the girl on total gym with chuck norris.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #108 on: January 03, 2008, 10:53:53 pm »

Based on the numbers, it looks like the Democratic turnout for the caucuses is going to double the Republicans. Maybe the typical Iowa Republican just cares less about politics than the typical Iowa Democrat, but this is a 50/50 state in general elections, that is a huge difference. What is everyone's opinion on this?

We're screwed. Unless we nominate McCain, but the base would not come out for him.

That assumption is not backed up by any polls that I know of.

They hate him because of McCain/Feingold and they don't trust him on immigration. Donít get me wrong, I think he could beat Clinton but Iím not too sure about Obama. Iím starting to think the man is destined to be president. He's a compromise choice whereas Obama is someone the Democrats seem really excited about, and their's not as much of an energy to keep him out of the white house as their is with Clinton.

But hey, I predicted a third place finish for Paul, so I don't really have a good track record here.

Obama will have problems with older Democratic voters, generally, especially in the South, but maybe he can make up that with younger and newer voters.  I remain far from convinced of that, however.
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« Reply #109 on: January 03, 2008, 10:54:38 pm »

Based on the numbers, it looks like the Democratic turnout for the caucuses is going to double the Republicans. Maybe the typical Iowa Republican just cares less about politics than the typical Iowa Democrat, but this is a 50/50 state in general elections, that is a huge difference. What is everyone's opinion on this?

We're screwed. Unless we nominate McCain, but the base would not come out for him.

That assumption is not backed up by any polls that I know of.

They hate him because of McCain/Feingold and they don't trust him on immigration. Donít get me wrong, I think he could beat Clinton but Iím not too sure about Obama. Iím starting to think the man is destined to be president. He's a compromise choice whereas Obama is someone the Democrats seem really excited about, and their's not as much of an energy to keep him out of the white house as their is with Clinton.

But hey, I predicted a third place finish for Paul, so I don't really have a good track record here.

You predicted 3rd? Dude. I tried to keep my hopes in check and predicted 4th barely ahead of Thompson.

My prediction was Huckabee gets a close win over Romney, McCain a distant third, Paul just squeaking ahead of Thompson and Giuliani.

So Romney loses by a bigger margin than I expected, Thompson and Paul switched positions and Thompson is close to McCain, and Giuliani was further back than I expected.
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« Reply #110 on: January 03, 2008, 11:02:41 pm »

Based on the numbers, it looks like the Democratic turnout for the caucuses is going to double the Republicans. Maybe the typical Iowa Republican just cares less about politics than the typical Iowa Democrat, but this is a 50/50 state in general elections, that is a huge difference. What is everyone's opinion on this?

We're screwed. Unless we nominate McCain, but the base would not come out for him.

That assumption is not backed up by any polls that I know of.

They hate him because of McCain/Feingold and they don't trust him on immigration. Donít get me wrong, I think he could beat Clinton but Iím not too sure about Obama. Iím starting to think the man is destined to be president. He's a compromise choice whereas Obama is someone the Democrats seem really excited about, and their's not as much of an energy to keep him out of the white house as their is with Clinton.

But hey, I predicted a third place finish for Paul, so I don't really have a good track record here.

You predicted 3rd? Dude. I tried to keep my hopes in check and predicted 4th barely ahead of Thompson.

My prediction was Huckabee gets a close win over Romney, McCain a distant third, Paul just squeaking ahead of Thompson and Giuliani.

So Romney loses by a bigger margin than I expected, Thompson and Paul switched positions and Thompson is close to McCain, and Giuliani was further back than I expected.

Well, I'm eating major crow now, ha ha. I'm going over to McCain now, he's the only other Republican I like. Still hope Paul does well in NH though.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #111 on: January 03, 2008, 11:04:24 pm »

Based on the numbers, it looks like the Democratic turnout for the caucuses is going to double the Republicans. Maybe the typical Iowa Republican just cares less about politics than the typical Iowa Democrat, but this is a 50/50 state in general elections, that is a huge difference. What is everyone's opinion on this?

We're screwed. Unless we nominate McCain, but the base would not come out for him.

That assumption is not backed up by any polls that I know of.

They hate him because of McCain/Feingold and they don't trust him on immigration. Donít get me wrong, I think he could beat Clinton but Iím not too sure about Obama. Iím starting to think the man is destined to be president. He's a compromise choice whereas Obama is someone the Democrats seem really excited about, and their's not as much of an energy to keep him out of the white house as their is with Clinton.

But hey, I predicted a third place finish for Paul, so I don't really have a good track record here.

You predicted 3rd? Dude. I tried to keep my hopes in check and predicted 4th barely ahead of Thompson.

My prediction was Huckabee gets a close win over Romney, McCain a distant third, Paul just squeaking ahead of Thompson and Giuliani.

So Romney loses by a bigger margin than I expected, Thompson and Paul switched positions and Thompson is close to McCain, and Giuliani was further back than I expected.

Well, I'm eating major crow now, ha ha. I'm going over to McCain now, he's the only other Republican I like. Still hope Paul does well in NH though.

Paul should perform well in NH.  Huckabee should gain, but his type of supporters there are rather thin on the ground.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #112 on: January 03, 2008, 11:07:47 pm »

Iowa Republican Caucuses Results 
Candidate   Votes *   %
Mike Huckabee    35,257   34%
Mitt Romney    25,995   25%
Fred Thompson    13,786   13%
John McCain    13,473   13%
Ron Paul    9,992   10%
Rudy Giuliani    3,571   3%
Duncan Hunter    452   0%
Tom Tancredo    3   0%

Fred over McCain again.

Still with 15% or so of precincts to go right?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #113 on: January 03, 2008, 11:08:37 pm »

Iowa Republican Caucuses Results 
Candidate   Votes *   %
Mike Huckabee    35,257   34%
Mitt Romney    25,995   25%
Fred Thompson    13,786   13%
John McCain    13,473   13%
Ron Paul    9,992   10%
Rudy Giuliani    3,571   3%
Duncan Hunter    452   0%
Tom Tancredo    3   0%

Fred over McCain again.

Still with 15% or so of precincts to go right?

Yep.
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J. J.
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« Reply #114 on: January 03, 2008, 11:10:21 pm »

So far McCain and Thompson are tied.

Official J. J. endorsement:  John McCain.

Go MacMan! Smiley
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #115 on: January 03, 2008, 11:10:40 pm »

Iowa Republican Caucuses Results 
Candidate   Votes *   %
Mike Huckabee    35,257   34%
Mitt Romney    25,995   25%
Fred Thompson    13,786   13%
John McCain    13,473   13%
Ron Paul    9,992   10%
Rudy Giuliani    3,571   3%
Duncan Hunter    452   0%
Tom Tancredo    3   0%

Fred over McCain again.

Still with 15% or so of precincts to go right?

Yep.

Regardless...it looks, as of right now that McCain would be the frontrunner in New Hampshire, especially after Huckabee spanked Romney...though that can change...

Does McCain gain at not just Romney's, but also Giuliani's expense?
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Gabu
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« Reply #116 on: January 03, 2008, 11:12:42 pm »

Well, I'm eating major crow now, ha ha. I'm going over to McCain now, he's the only other Republican I like. Still hope Paul does well in NH though.

Hey, I've always tossed Paul aside as a joke candidate; getting 10% is pretty good by me.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #117 on: January 03, 2008, 11:13:04 pm »

Iowa Republican Caucuses Results 
Candidate   Votes *   %
Mike Huckabee    35,257   34%
Mitt Romney    25,995   25%
Fred Thompson    13,786   13%
John McCain    13,473   13%
Ron Paul    9,992   10%
Rudy Giuliani    3,571   3%
Duncan Hunter    452   0%
Tom Tancredo    3   0%

Fred over McCain again.

Still with 15% or so of precincts to go right?

Yep.

Regardless...it looks, as of right now that McCain would be the frontrunner in New Hampshire, especially after Huckabee spanked Romney...though that can change...

Does McCain gain at not just Romney's, but also Giuliani's expense?

He's been gaining from Giuliani for about 3-4 weeks.  Don't see why it would stopped.

As pointed out by another poster on another site, who's been posting here Smiley, McCain ate into Mitt's base of voters (or the base he'd been courting) in upper-income Des Moines precincts.
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« Reply #118 on: January 03, 2008, 11:14:00 pm »

lol, Rudy got murdered.  we all knew he would but being tripled up by Paul is something else altogether.
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« Reply #119 on: January 03, 2008, 11:15:25 pm »

Well, I'm eating major crow now, ha ha. I'm going over to McCain now, he's the only other Republican I like. Still hope Paul does well in NH though.

Don't feel bad. I support Paul, but I know full well he's not winning the nomination. My hope is he just forces the party toward his direction like Dean did to the Democrats in late 2003 and that it will make libertarians more openly accepted in the Republican Party, which they most certainly are not now. I said previously to a hater on here, Paul by being where he's at now has far exceeded my expectations from what I thought this past summer, and it's nice to know there are more people in this party that think like I do than I had previously thought.

6 months ago he was around Duncan Hunter and Jim Gilmore level around a tie for ninth place at 0.5%. He got fifth tonight at 10% with support from probably around 11,000 out of 115,000 Republicans.
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« Reply #120 on: January 03, 2008, 11:15:57 pm »

No. Giuliani told most people in Iowa that he didnt care if they caucused for him or not, and that they weren't part of his strategy. He needs to finish third in NH to stay viable, though. If he finishes behind Paul again, then McCain will take all his supporters.
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« Reply #121 on: January 03, 2008, 11:16:10 pm »


He's been gaining from Giuliani for about 3-4 weeks.  Don't see why it would stopped.

As pointed out by another poster on another site, who's been posting here Smiley, McCain ate into Mitt's base of voters (or the base he'd been courting) in upper-income Des Moines precincts.


I guess what I'm saying here is, for Giulani's delayed strategy to work...it almost requires McCain to be dead in the water by super tuesday...doesn't look like that's gonna happen now...
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« Reply #122 on: January 03, 2008, 11:20:00 pm »

Based on the numbers, it looks like the Democratic turnout for the caucuses is going to double the Republicans. Maybe the typical Iowa Republican just cares less about politics than the typical Iowa Democrat, but this is a 50/50 state in general elections, that is a huge difference. What is everyone's opinion on this?

We're screwed. Unless we nominate McCain, but the base would not come out for him.

That assumption is not backed up by any polls that I know of.

They hate him because of McCain/Feingold and they don't trust him on immigration. Donít get me wrong, I think he could beat Clinton but Iím not too sure about Obama. Iím starting to think the man is destined to be president. He's a compromise choice whereas Obama is someone the Democrats seem really excited about, and their's not as much of an energy to keep him out of the white house as their is with Clinton.

But hey, I predicted a third place finish for Paul, so I don't really have a good track record here.



Huckabee and Obama are both populists, so if both of them are on the ticket come November, it should make too much of a difference overall in how the country is ran.  Both speak well and bring a positive message, and I find this to be one of the interesting variables for predicting how the states will vote.  We could easily see a complete shift of the EV map, and that causes me to laugh when I read people saying almost too confidently that Huckabee can't beat Obama... since it's impossible to tell at this early stage.
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« Reply #123 on: January 04, 2008, 12:11:51 am »

So far McCain and Thompson are tied.

Official J. J. endorsement:  John McCain.

Go MacMan! Smiley

Welcome aboard!
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The Duke
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« Reply #124 on: January 04, 2008, 12:12:22 am »


Good job, Chuck.
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