official Iowa Republican results thread

[Sam Spade]

Huck got all the late breakers.  As I suspected, the silly late Rollins ploy worked.  It helped that no one liked Romney in the first place.  Now McCain should be able to finish off Romney in NH.

[Sam Spade]

frankly, third place appears to be interesting.  romney may have bled support at the end.  kinda reminds me of mondale - bring the people there, they vote differently.

[Sam Spade]

Something weird going on. CNN's results just went from 40% to 65% and while everyone's results went up appreciably, Giuliani just lost 1300 votes and is down to 4% from 11%.

Huckabee 34%
Romney 25%
Thompson 14%
McCain 13%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 4%

Probably someone adding numbers wrong.  Considering the homogenity of Iowa precincts, I would guess that this is the correct number

[Sam Spade]

As of now, it looks like Zogby actually came closest to predicting the final results on the GOP side.

Zogby is very good at this thing - as I said earlier today.  He still sucks at other polling.

[Sam Spade]

Based on the numbers, it looks like the Democratic turnout for the caucuses is going to double the Republicans. Maybe the typical Iowa Republican just cares less about politics than the typical Iowa Democrat, but this is a 50/50 state in general elections, that is a huge difference. What is everyone's opinion on this?

We're screwed. Unless we nominate McCain, but the base would not come out for him.

That assumption is not backed up by any polls that I know of.

[Sam Spade]

Based on the numbers, it looks like the Democratic turnout for the caucuses is going to double the Republicans. Maybe the typical Iowa Republican just cares less about politics than the typical Iowa Democrat, but this is a 50/50 state in general elections, that is a huge difference. What is everyone's opinion on this?

We're screwed. Unless we nominate McCain, but the base would not come out for him.

That assumption is not backed up by any polls that I know of.

They hate him because of McCain/Feingold and they don't trust him on immigration. Don’t get me wrong, I think he could beat Clinton but I’m not too sure about Obama. I’m starting to think the man is destined to be president. He's a compromise choice whereas Obama is someone the Democrats seem really excited about, and their's not as much of an energy to keep him out of the white house as their is with Clinton.

But hey, I predicted a third place finish for Paul, so I don't really have a good track record here.

Obama will have problems with older Democratic voters, generally, especially in the South, but maybe he can make up that with younger and newer voters.  I remain far from convinced of that, however.

[Sam Spade]

Based on the numbers, it looks like the Democratic turnout for the caucuses is going to double the Republicans. Maybe the typical Iowa Republican just cares less about politics than the typical Iowa Democrat, but this is a 50/50 state in general elections, that is a huge difference. What is everyone's opinion on this?

We're screwed. Unless we nominate McCain, but the base would not come out for him.

That assumption is not backed up by any polls that I know of.

They hate him because of McCain/Feingold and they don't trust him on immigration. Don’t get me wrong, I think he could beat Clinton but I’m not too sure about Obama. I’m starting to think the man is destined to be president. He's a compromise choice whereas Obama is someone the Democrats seem really excited about, and their's not as much of an energy to keep him out of the white house as their is with Clinton.

But hey, I predicted a third place finish for Paul, so I don't really have a good track record here.

You predicted 3rd? Dude. I tried to keep my hopes in check and predicted 4th barely ahead of Thompson.

My prediction was Huckabee gets a close win over Romney, McCain a distant third, Paul just squeaking ahead of Thompson and Giuliani.

So Romney loses by a bigger margin than I expected, Thompson and Paul switched positions and Thompson is close to McCain, and Giuliani was further back than I expected.

Well, I'm eating major crow now, ha ha. I'm going over to McCain now, he's the only other Republican I like. Still hope Paul does well in NH though.

Paul should perform well in NH.  Huckabee should gain, but his type of supporters there are rather thin on the ground.

[Sam Spade]

Iowa Republican Caucuses Results 
Candidate   Votes *   %
Mike Huckabee    35,257   34%
Mitt Romney    25,995   25%
Fred Thompson    13,786   13%
John McCain    13,473   13%
Ron Paul    9,992   10%
Rudy Giuliani    3,571   3%
Duncan Hunter    452   0%
Tom Tancredo    3   0%

Fred over McCain again.

Still with 15% or so of precincts to go right?

Yep.

[Sam Spade]

Iowa Republican Caucuses Results 
Candidate   Votes *   %
Mike Huckabee    35,257   34%
Mitt Romney    25,995   25%
Fred Thompson    13,786   13%
John McCain    13,473   13%
Ron Paul    9,992   10%
Rudy Giuliani    3,571   3%
Duncan Hunter    452   0%
Tom Tancredo    3   0%

Fred over McCain again.

Still with 15% or so of precincts to go right?

Yep.

Regardless...it looks, as of right now that McCain would be the frontrunner in New Hampshire, especially after Huckabee spanked Romney...though that can change...

Does McCain gain at not just Romney's, but also Giuliani's expense?

He's been gaining from Giuliani for about 3-4 weeks.  Don't see why it would stopped.

As pointed out by another poster on another site, who's been posting here , McCain ate into Mitt's base of voters (or the base he'd been courting) in upper-income Des Moines precincts.

[Sam Spade]

For BRTD:  Looks like McCain is going to finish in 2nd, ahead of Romney, in Sioux County...

[Sam Spade]

Looks like I was wrong:  Republican turnout is going to be more in the 115,000-120,000 range.

I also suspect Thompson finishes a few hundred votes ahead of McCain, probably not enough to get him up to 14%, however.

[Sam Spade]

I am so surprised that Fred Thompson finished third in the Republican race, with 93% of the precents in. How in God's name does this occur when he hasn't bothered to campaign half the time? As long as he fails in New Hampshire (which he will) and South Carolina I will be a happy man.

I wouldn't be surprised if Mitt Romney wins New Hampshire with Senator McCain a very close second and Congressman Ron Paul finishing third. McCain and Paul both have the 'Big Mo' as George Bush said back in 1980. What happens next is anybody's guess.

If McCain continues to have the "big mo", he will destroy Romney in NH, not finish 2nd.