1. Remember the entusiasm that McCovern generated or the fact that many people believed that Reagan would lose in 1984?
Eh. Remember how everyone thought George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan were lightweights?
Fair. McCain will do well to run against Congress, because people do seem to prefer divided government. However Jimmy Carter also ran against Washington gridlock - even when it was caused by his own party. It worked.
Also fair, although his major legislative works, bills on immigration and campaign spending, don't exactly ignite passion among Republicans. He's also well-known for voting against the Bush tax-cuts.
Is this a documented phenomenon?
A large part of this country is also bored with the war.
I don't know if there are a lot of blue collar voters in Illinois, but when it came to the Democratic primary in the Senate race, he blew all of his opponents out of the water and did well downstate, which is full of white voters. I'd say that speaks to his crossover appeal. As for national security, McCain has some advantage there but he is on record supporting a war that most Americans want to end sooner rather than later.
I'd predict something more like this:
- Colorado is a tossup. It has an increasingly Democratic electorate, but I'm not sure yet if they would vote for someone as liberal as Obama.
- Florida is McCain country. Katherine Harris's problems were personal and the state remains a bright spot for Republicans, I think.
- Louisiana is a tossup. There simply hasn't been a national election held there since Katrina. Jindal's victory could be seen as a vote against Democrats or a vote against incumbents; let's also not forget that it shows that Louisiana voters aren't as racist as some may think.
- Missouri is Democratic. It voted for Clinton, recently tossed out Jim Talent, and is probably ready for a fellow Midwesterner.
- Ohio is Democratic. I would list it as a tossup, but Bush only narrowly carried the state and the Ohio GOP utterly collapsed last year, when Sherrod Brown and Ted Strickland won easy victories. McCain has national security credibility, but that type of credibility only just put Republicans over the edge in 2004 and it won't do so again.
- Nevada is a tossup. See Colorado.
- New Hampshire is Democratic. It switched teams from Bush in 2000 to Kerry in 2004, and dropped both GOP Congressmen in 2006. I don't see any indication why this should change.
- New Mexico is Democratic. McCain is from a neighboring state, which helps, but not too much. Remember that New Mexico voted for DC's Gore over Texas's Bush, and nearly did the same for Kerry. In addition, the high number of Hispanics who are tired of the Republican party will push Obama over the top.
- Pennsylvania is Democratic. At the risk of oversimplifying the state, it seems a lot like Ohio, only a smidgen more favorable to Democrats.
