Basically, my argument is that people always say "My prediction would have been right, in a universe where nothing unexpected had happened!" But unexpected things happen in every single election. It doesn't seem to deter people from making ironclad predictions about what's going to happen in each succeeding election.
I see. You're right about that. That's why I always try to preface any predictions I make with a closed-universe where the political climate remains consistent and no major events have happened. But I guess that's essentially impossible.
