New Hampshire Democratic Primary Results

[ottermax]

I really wanted Obama to win. Did we see the Bradley effect tonight? Or did people make last minute decisions to choose Clinton because of her tears? So many questions. Hopefully Obama can keep it up till the end. At least Clinton didn't win both Iowa and New Hampshire.

[Verily]

Obviously. The last thing wounded, depressed people enjoy is "HAHAHAHA YOU LOST". Its really unsportsman like, especially in the anti-tone taken only by the anti-Obama crowd.

Yeah, well let me extend my thanks to you for standing up and being so vocal when people did this with Santorum and his family for months after an election he got destroyed in.

Personally, I would have expected you not to partake in petty vengeance. By doing so, you're only baiting people like BRTD to be idiots again. I know, it made you upset when it happened, but if you feel so strongly about it, break the cycle. By doing this now, you're endorsing the tactic.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I've only found out the results now and I must admit I am quite surprised. I thought Obama would have continued his momentum from Iowa and would have easily encountered for Hillary. But that is politics for you. One day your down, the next your back up again. And I don't think Obama will suffer from the Bradley effect. He's got many backups like South Carolina and many more to come.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Clinton 107,502 39%
 Obama 99,658 37%

94% reporting

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Clinton 109,173 39%
 Obama 101,432 37%

95% reporting

[jimrtex]

How could the Dem polls be so wrong? The GOP ones were accrurate, the Dem ones were not, and the late break per the exit polls were about even, so one cannot attribute it to that, or the tearing episode of Hillary (marginal at best).  My wild theory is that the turnout model on the Dem side was too male, and maybe too young. The young did not vote as anticipated, and and the men voted in the GOP primary for the man who is perceived as knowing how to wage war.

The exit polls show that the Dem vote was 57/43 female, while the GOP vote was 43/57.  The Clinton margin among women (+12) was comparable to the Obama margin among men (+11) so the overall 2% victory was due to the distribution.

On the GOP side, McCain had a 6% margin among women and 4% among men.  Only among Paul supporters was their a significant sex difference (11% of men vs. 4% of women).

[Sam Spade]

With 96.34% in, turnout is about 278,500 in the Democratic primary.  I suspect it'll probably end up around 290,000 before we're done.  A little higher than expected by the SOS (10%-15%)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyone got a link to town results?

[Alcon]

Anyone got a link to town results?

CNN has 'em

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyone got a link to town results?

CNN has 'em

Should have been obvious actually.

Diolch.

[Јas]

Just finished skimming through this 50 page thread. A fascinating read, particularly looking at reactions changing through the night.

Anyway, all I have to say is well done JJ - that's a prediction to place you in Atlas legend.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think Obama will still win South Carolina.  I dunno about Nevada, its probably Clinton's.  I think this race will probably seesaw between the two of them for a while now - and Super Tuesday is too hard to predict in terms of getting a nominee as the outcome - for me anyway. 

[Umengus]

I only got this half right (so far), but:

The NH Primary is notoriously hard to poll, and has been for decades.  The electorate is fluid and they tend to lie to polsters.

A narrow Clinton victory, and she'll use the "comeback kid" line.

She used "comeback" in the first line.

And:

Buy Clinton.

Can't say I didn't suggest it.

Remind me to change my screen name to "Cassandra."

"Render to Caesar that which is Caesar's,  to God that which is God's and to J.J. that wich is J.J."

Good job.

[Јas]

New Hampshire Democratic Primary Results 

Precincts: 100%
Source: AP

Candidate	Votes	%
Hillary Clinton	112,238	39%
Barack Obama	104,757	36%
John Edwards	48,666	17%
Bill Richardson	13,245	5%
Dennis Kucinich	3,912	1%
Total Write-ins	3,076	1%
Joe Biden	628	0%
Mike Gravel	402	0%
Richard Caligiuri	254	0%
Chris Dodd	202	0%
Kenneth Capalbo	106	0%
D.R. Hunter	95	0%
Bill Keefe	47	0%
Tom Laughlin	46	0%
Randy Crow	35	0%
Michael Skok	32	0%
O. Savior	31	0%
William Hughes	22	0%
Henry Hewes	19	0%
Tom Koos	17	0%
Caroline Killeen	11	0%
Dal LaMagna	8	0%

I'm beginning to think Gravel might not win the nomination

[Sam Spade]

Total turnout:  287,849