Bet of the year!!!! Nevada will be won by Kerry

[AuH2O]

Anyone want to actually win money, rather than lose it?

-Bush to win Iowa

-Bush to win 350+ electoral votes

The first is fairly safe, the second a little riskier. BUT, you make 7:1 on the 350+electoral votes.

So, $300 becomes $2000. Even if it's a 50/50 chance (which is my analysis at this point), it still pays.

[AuH2O]

Flip PA, and he could lose Maine and I think Washington and still have over 350.

That loosely equates to a theoretical 54/45/1, though at 53/46/1 it could still happen.

But Iowa is a tossup state that Bush will win if he takes the popular vote, and right now he is like a 3:1 dog. Cash in time...

[AuH2O]

The safest move is just to pick Bush to win... that pays 1:1 anyway. Doesn't hurt to pre-allocate some of that towards a riskier one.

And, as confident as I am of Bush winning... 350 is tough without California or Illinois. My actual prediction is around 366 or something, but even then a lot of the states would be close (Maine, Washington, etc.)

[AuH2O]

Close elections are the exception, not the rule.

Just taking advantage of people's biases resulting from the unusual 2000 election.