CA-CNN/LA-Times: Clinton ahead by double digits, Giuliani only 3rd

[Tender Branson]

Heading into the delegate-rich Feb. 5 California primary, Hillary Rodham Clinton holds a solid lead over Barack Obama there, while John McCain has a narrow edge over Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani, according to a new Politico/CNN/Los Angeles Times poll by Opinion Research Corporation.

The poll of 384 likely Democratic primary voters, conducted by telephone Jan. 11-13, shows the New York senator at 47 percent, comfortably ahead of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama’s 31 percent and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards’ 10 percent.

Six percent of those surveyed said they were not sure. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

On the Republican side, based on a poll of 255 likely Republican primary voters, the Arizona senator led with 20 percent to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s 16 percent and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s 14 percent.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee trailed with 13 percent, followed by Rep. Ron Paul of Texas at 8 percent and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson at 6 percent.

Eleven percent said they were unsure. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 6 percentage points.

The new numbers suggest the California contests are still in flux, though to varying degree. While 62 percent of Democrats surveyed said they were certain of their choice, 38 percent said they might support somebody else.

On the Republican side, the opposite held true: 61 percent said they might vote for somebody else, compared to only 39 percent who said they were certain.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7880.html

[Gabu]

To be honest, that's closer than I thought it would be on the Democratic side.

[Padfoot]

the fact that Clinton is under 50% is encouraging

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama is getting killed 61-19 among Hispanics.

[Verily]

That's not too bad for having had no campaign there yet and not yet factoring in Nevada and South Carolina. I maintain, however, that Obama stands a much better chance at New Jersey than at California (and I think he's seen that, having been in Jersey City a couple of days ago).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obama is getting killed 61-19 among Hispanics.

That's what'll cost him CA.

[Eraserhead]

A NV win could probably help his image among hispanics.

[Ben.]

Obama is getting killed 61-19 among Hispanics.

That's what'll cost him CA.

The Obama campaign will be counting on off setting a strong Clinton showing amongst Hispanics in the south of the state by racking up bigger margins in the bay area and Northern CA.

It's a feasible approach... but at the moment it far to early to start seriously thinking about CA, the results from NV, SC and FL will define that and what’s more the campaigns are only just turning their attention to the Feb 5 states (which don’t vote for nearly a month).

So there's plenty of time for CA and the other Feb 5 states to shift and frankly if Obama comes out of the next three contests in decent shape then he should stand an evens chance in CA.