GOP Presidential Primary

[Keystone Phil]

I love doing these every once in awhile.

So here are a few candidates from different "wings" of the GOP:


Governor Keystone Phil - a traditional conservative on social, economic, fiscal and foreign policy issues from a big city in a swing state in the Northeast.

Senator AndrewBerger - a true moderate Republican who leans to the left on social issues but is more conservative on economics. Andrew is also from the Northeast.

Governor PBrunsel - a heartland conservative who emphasizes social policy. PBrunsel's base is with rural Republicans.

Senator Mike Naso - an all around conservative Republican from the swing state of Ohio with a unique passion for foreign policy and national security. Naso is an outspoken defense hawk.

Governor NixonNow - a conservative leaning New Jersey Republican who champions fiscally conservative principles.

Senator htmldon - a well known GOP loyalist with a strong centrist identity, Don hails from the Republican stronghold of Tennessee. While he struggles with the base of his party from time to time, Don is known for having great crossover appeal in General elections.


So there you have it - six Republicans (three Governors, three Senators) from different areas with different ideological backgrounds. My question to you is not the usual "who wins?" overall. Instead, how would the following early states turn out:

Iowa
Wyoming
New Hampshire
Michigan
South Carolina
Nevada
Florida


Feel free to expand, if you'd like, into Super Tuesday and maybe even beyond. Take into account everything you know about each candidate. Please post maps of how each state would go if you can to make reading the results easier.

[Eraserhead]

You neglected to mention Naso's populist leanings.

[Keystone Phil]

You neglected to mention Naso's populist leanings.

I don't think Naso is a populist. He follows the party line.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I'll do the first four primaries. I'll come to the others later.

Iowa: Governor PBrunsel wins easily, much like Senator Tom Harkin was able to win the Iowa Caucus in 1992. Being a native son and all.

Wyoming: Governor PBrunsel would be able to pull off a victory in Wyoming, unless a mega rich Mormon enters the race.

New Hampshire: New Hampshire would either go to Senator Berger, Governor NixonNow, Senator htlmdon or Governor Keystone Phil. All of them would be able to do well in New Hampshire but who would come out on top? I haven't a clue.

Michigan: Either Senator Naso, Governor Keystone Phil or Governor NixonNow would win here. Unless, like Wyoming, a mega rich Mormon who was born and bred in Michigan enters the race.

[Reaganfan]

Cool thread, Phil. Hopefully we will get some good detailed predictions.

[afleitch]

If I was a registered US voter, I'd probably register as Republican in order to vote for Andrew Berger.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

If I was a registered US voter, I'd probably register as Republican in order to vote for Andrew Berger.

Hmmph

[Keystone Phil]

If I was a registered US voter, I'd probably register as Republican in order to vote for Andrew Berger.

Care to expand on how the race would turn out in the said states? 

[afleitch]

I agree with Rocky.

Brunsel carries Iowa and Wyoming, Berger takes New Hampshire and I think Phil might pull of Michigan.

[bullmoose88]

I love doing these every once in awhile.

So here are a few candidates from different "wings" of the GOP:


Governor Keystone Phil - a traditional conservative on social, economic, fiscal and foreign policy issues from a big city in a swing state in the Northeast.

Senator AndrewBerger - a true moderate Republican who leans to the left on social issues but is more conservative on economics. Andrew is also from the Northeast.

Governor PBrunsel - a heartland conservative who emphasizes social policy. PBrunsel's base is with rural Republicans.

Senator Mike Naso - an all around conservative Republican from the swing state of Ohio with a unique passion for foreign policy and national security. Naso is an outspoken defense hawk.

Governor NixonNow - a conservative leaning New Jersey Republican who champions fiscally conservative principles.

Senator htmldon - a well known GOP loyalist with a strong centrist identity, Don hails from the Republican stronghold of Tennessee. While he struggles with the base of his party from time to time, Don is known for having great crossover appeal in General elections.


So there you have it - six Republicans (three Governors, three Senators) from different areas with different ideological backgrounds. My question to you is not the usual "who wins?" overall. Instead, how would the following early states turn out

Iowa: Native son Gov. PBrunsel wins solidly in Iowa, several of the other contenders, ala Clinton in 1992 vs. Harkin decide not to seriously contest the caucus.  Don and Berger place 2nd and 3rd due to non Republicans in the GOP caucus.


Wyoming: Brunsel's momentum does not help him in the more Libertarian state of Wyoming.  While the GOP caucus there is not overly libertarian, Brunsel finishes far from the front of the pack.  Governor Naso's sheer charisma (including red hair) and the fact he is not from the supposed "eastern establishment" earns him a narrow victory (even though he spent a decent amount of time in the state) while Berger (getting the libertarianesque support all to himself), Phil and Assad closely follow in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th respectively.  Brunsel and Don--both of whom did not contest--finish in a distant 5th and 6th

New Hampshire-Significant Victory for Senator Berger whose coalition is built out of independents, libertarian and moderate Republicans.  Governor Naso, Phil and Assad all split the conservative Republican vote and finish behind, along with Don who cannot beat Berger for the same bloc of voters although Don hangs in on the support of Democrats and more left leaning Independents voting in the primary dissatisfied with Berger's senate record

Michigan-Neighboring Governor Naso wins a crucial victory in the Wolverine State winning the conservative primary vote, followed by Senator Don who has significant family connections in the state and who wins the moderate vote against Senator Berger who was seen as too much of a New Englander.  Brunsel wins the majority of the evalgelical vote but cannot best Naso in the core conservative group due to suburban pro business conservatives.  Phil and Assad bypass the race due to funding concerns at this point because of poor showings.  It becomes clear to most commentators that for one of the two to pose a serious shot, the other must bow out because of the similar ideological appeal.  Neither is willing at this point...


South Carolina-Berger by passes South Carolina and devotes more energy to Nevada and Florida.  This allows the only southerner in the race to be a serious contender in SC against Pbrunsel.  Don eeeks out a narrow victory despite Brunsel's evangelical support because other conservatives are split between him, Naso and the two midatlantic conservatives.  Unfortunately for Don, while he has a plurality victory, the votes for the moderate candidate are greatly outweighed by those for conservatives.

Nevada-Berger's investment in Nevada pays off as he's able to put in a solid showing in the state due to suburban Reno and the Las Vegas area, and because the Htmldon campaign spent most of its energy in South Carolina in the hope it could prepare him for florida.  Mean while Governor Naso performs strongly among the military voters in Nevada and among traditional conservatives, and bests Pbrunsel in this regard in the more libertarian leaning (than populist) state. Berger-1, Naso-2, Brunsel-3.  Party insiders begin debating the question of what do to with Assad and Phil.  Most prefer Phil due to his big state ties, and ability to swing Pennsylvania in the general.  They begin feeling out if Assad will drop out and endorse Phil.

Florida-The moderate wing of the Party splits evenly for Don and Berger, and don is able to pull in some unaligned conservatives merely because of his southern background thus allowing him to be the leading moderate in the sunshine state.  Berger is unable to pull in additional non moderates, even those northern transplants because of the large number of Northerners in the race...he has a disappointing finish and loses a big amount of momentum.  Governor Naso narrowly wins Florida on the back of the military vote and northern transplanted conservatives.  Don finishes second...Brunsel 3rd.

I am tempted to write myself into the timeline. Meh

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I am tempted to write myself into the timeline. Meh

Bullmoose Bullmoose!

[Keystone Phil]

I am tempted to write myself into the timeline. Meh

Bullmoose Bullmoose!

Well, I left out bullmoose because I thought we had enough Northeastern candidates with a good ideological mix. However, if bullmoose wants to jump into the race this late in his scenario, I guess it is possible.     Or he can just start it over with himself included.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

For the hell of it here's an updated GOP Primary Map. Based on bullmoose88's timeline.

Governor PBrunsel
Senator Mike Naso
Senator AndrewBerger
Senator Don

[HappyWarrior]

Phil, you should write up one of these scenarios for Democrats too(I demand inclusion;)lol)

[CPT MikeyMike]

Phil, you should write up one of these scenarios for Democrats too(I demand inclusion;)lol)

Yes and then include a third party ticket of Me/Rockefeller Republican should the far left and far right candidates become nominated!

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Phil, you should write up one of these scenarios for Democrats too(I demand inclusion;)lol)

Yes and then include a third party ticket of Me/Rockefeller Republican should the far left and far right candidates become nominated!

Oh yeah! You thought Ross Perot was good Maine, wait until you see MikeyMike/Rocky!

[Keystone Phil]

For the hell of it here's an updated GOP Primary Map. Based on bullmoose88's timeline.

Governor PBrunsel
Senator Mike Naso
Senator AndrewBerger
Senator Don

Naso won Wyoming, not PBrunsel.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

For the hell of it here's an updated GOP Primary Map. Based on bullmoose88's timeline.

Governor PBrunsel
Senator Mike Naso
Senator AndrewBerger
Senator Don

Naso won Wyoming, not PBrunsel.

He did too my mistake. It shall be fixed .

[afleitch]

Throw me in a Democratic race - I'll keep plugging on until California

[Sensei]

I agree with Rocky.

Brunsel carries Iowa and Wyoming, Berger takes New Hampshire and I think Phil might pull of Michigan.

sounds about right.

Phil, you should write up one of these scenarios for Democrats too(I demand inclusion;)lol)

Yeah, that would be interesting to see.

[Hash]

I'll do this because I'm bored.

Iowa: Governor PBrunsel easily wins, with over 60% of the votes as other candidates bypass the state to focus on later primaries. Don takes second.

Wyoming: I read somewhere on this forum that candidates like PBrunsel do poorly in Wyoming. It is a close race between Naso (who represents the non-Northeast "faction") and moderate-to-libertarian Berger. Naso wins narrowly.

New Hampshire: Andrew Berger scores an easy victory due to moderate and Independent voters in NH. Being from the region, he is able to defeat Don for the centrist Independent vote. The conservative vote is a statistical 3-way tie.

Michigan: Naso wins the state's conservative voters, while Berger takes the moderate vote, and PBrunsel takes the evangelical voters. Phil and Assad have lower scores, both are competing for the same votes.

South Carolina: The race is all between Don and PBrunsel, with Don having an advantage being from the same region. PBrunsel narrowly wins (by around 1-2%); Naso, Phil, and Assad take much lower scores.

Nevada: Don has focused much less on Nevada, allowing Berger to win by a decent margin against Naso and PBrunsel. Both Phil and Assad remain in the same percentage range and pressures are on one of them to drop out.

Louisiana: (using the 2008 calendar, which has LA on the 22nd) The race is like that in South Carolina, between Don and PBrunsel. Don narrowly wins, his first victory. However, it is overshadowed by Florida.

Florida: Naso has actively campaigned in the state against Don and Berger, who are competing for the moderate voters. Naso squeaks out a win, with Don and Berger almost tied for second. PBrunsel is in a close third, Phil is fourth and Assad a distant fifth.

Later on...

Maine: Senator Berger repeats his New Hampshire victory in neighboring Maine. Don and Naso tie for second. Phil gets around 9% and Assad has 1-2%.

I'll do February 5th later today or tomorrow.

[bullmoose88]

I am tempted to write myself into the timeline. Meh

Bullmoose Bullmoose!

Well, I left out bullmoose because I thought we had enough Northeastern candidates with a good ideological mix. However, if bullmoose wants to jump into the race this late in his scenario, I guess it is possible.     Or he can just start it over with himself included.

heh...i was partially joking, though if I continue this (people will have to tell me what the next primaries are etc), and a brokered convention results...I may toss my name into it...or bloomberg this thing

Does someone want to run a democratic one and we can merge stories?

[afleitch]

Does someone want to run a democratic one and we can merge stories?

Probably best to get volunteers to be part of the scenario

I'll throw my hat in the ring and HappyWarrior seems keen

[Хahar 🤔]

Does someone want to run a democratic one and we can merge stories?

Probably best to get volunteers to be part of the scenario

I'll throw my hat in the ring and HappyWarrior seems keen

ME!!!

[HappyWarrior]

Does someone want to run a democratic one and we can merge stories?

Probably best to get volunteers to be part of the scenario

I'll throw my hat in the ring and HappyWarrior seems keen

ME!!!

Somebody who would'nt run should design the scenario.(Such as what posts we have, though it should incorporate our individual stances as well)  So we need someone who knows about everyone.