CA-Rasmussen: Obama catching up with Clinton, Giuliani slide continues

[Tender Branson]

Thursday, January 17, 2008

The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of California’s Democratic Presidential Primary shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by five percentage points. It’s Clinton 38% Obama 33% and John Edwards at 12%. Dennis Kucinich picks up 3% of the vote and 13% are not sure.

Obama is viewed favorably by 80% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters, Clinton by 78%, and Edwards by 68%.

Eighty percent (80%) believe Obama would be at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Seventy-eight percent (78%) say the same about Clinton.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of Clinton’s supporters are “certain” they will vote for her and 65% of Obama voters say the same about their candidate. Just 50% of Edwards fans are that “certain” of their support.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of California’s Democratic Primary voters consider the economy to be a Very Important voting issue. Seventy-six percent (76%) say the same about Health Care. Government ethics and corruption is considered Very Important by 68% while the War in Iraq is that important to 62%.

...

Thursday, January 17, 2008

John McCain has a seven point lead over Mitt Romney in California’s Republican Presidential Primary. The first Rasmussen Reports telephone poll of the race shows McCain earning 24% of the vote while Romney attracts 17%. More than ten points behind the leader are Mike Huckabee at 13%, Fred Thompson at 13%, and Rudy Giuliani at 11%.

However, as in other states, the voters in California are far from settled. Sixty-three percent (63%) of Romney’s supporters are certain they will vote for him. That’s a far higher level of commitment than any other candidate enjoys. Just 45% of McCain’s supporters are that “certain” along with 54% of those who support Thompson, 45% of Huckabee voters, and 36% of Giuliani fans.

Eleven percent (11%) of Romney supporters say there’s a good chance they could change their mind. Fifteen percent (15%) of Thompson’s supporters are that likely to switch. The numbers are even higher for other candidates—21% for McCain, 22% for Huckabee, and 22% for Giuliani.

McCain is seen as the most electable Republican, a fact that explains his frontrunner status and the current lack of commitment from his voters. Sixty-six percent (66%) say that he is at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) believe Giuliani would have a chance to win as the Republican nominee.

Fifty-five percent (55%) see Romney as at least somewhat likely to win while just 41% say the same about both Huckabee and Thompson.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics

[Tender Branson]

I still don´t see how Obama could win NV and CA, but good to see a close(er) poll.

[Eraserhead]

Wonderful news.

[agcatter]

Surprisingly close.

Obama should sweep the black precincts and do very well in liberal upscale strongholds like San Francisco as well as the colleges throughout the state.

The problem in the Hispanic vote.  He's got to crack that to win and I right now it's a steep uphill climb.  I don't know what he can do to get into that vote.

Obama will carry a lot of delegates even if he doesn't win as long as it is close.  To get the nomination however, he needs to WIN California.  I'm pulling for him.

The only thing I see right now that could propel Obama here and offset the 2 to 1 he's going to lose Hispanics is a withdrawal and a strong endorsement from Edwards.  That might inject the appearance of momentum and help with the working class whites.  Unfortunately, that doesn't look like it is in the cards.

[Sbane]

It is almost impossible for Obama to win here unless there is a strong independent turnout. Hillary does great in socal and the central valley. Obama just does well generally along the coast and in the bay area but its not enough for a victory.

[Cubby]

However, as in other states, the voters in California are far from settled. Sixty-three percent (63%) of Romney’s supporters are certain they will vote for him. That’s a far higher level of commitment than any other candidate enjoys. Just 45% of McCain’s supporters are that “certain” along with 54% of those who support Thompson, 45% of Huckabee voters, and 36% of Giuliani fans.

I see California Mormons are up to the same en masse voting habits that their peers in other states follow.

[ottermax]

Everyone seems to think that NH and Nevada were the end of Obama. Only a few months ago Hillary was winning a landslide particularly in Nevada and NH. I'm surprised that Obama got so many votes. Hopefully his momentum will build and people will realize that he is the better candidate. He should aim for every state on Super Tuesday other than California, New York, and Arkansas.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Surprisingly close.

Obama should sweep the black precincts and do very well in liberal upscale strongholds like San Francisco as well as the colleges throughout the state.

The problem in the Hispanic vote.  He's got to crack that to win and I right now it's a steep uphill climb.  I don't know what he can do to get into that vote.

Obama will carry a lot of delegates even if he doesn't win as long as it is close.  To get the nomination however, he needs to WIN California.  I'm pulling for him.

The only thing I see right now that could propel Obama here and offset the 2 to 1 he's going to lose Hispanics is a withdrawal and a strong endorsement from Edwards.  That might inject the appearance of momentum and help with the working class whites.  Unfortunately, that doesn't look like it is in the cards.

From what I've read, Hispanic population translates very poorly into votes, even more so than among blacks. This is due to youth and lack of citizenship.

However, as in other states, the voters in California are far from settled. Sixty-three percent (63%) of Romney’s supporters are certain they will vote for him. That’s a far higher level of commitment than any other candidate enjoys. Just 45% of McCain’s supporters are that “certain” along with 54% of those who support Thompson, 45% of Huckabee voters, and 36% of Giuliani fans.

I see California Mormons are up to the same en masse voting habits that their peers in other states follow.

Are there a lot of Mormons in CA? I'd imagine there are some in the eastern part of the state, but they have to be a tiny percentage compared to other western states.

[Verily]

However, as in other states, the voters in California are far from settled. Sixty-three percent (63%) of Romney’s supporters are certain they will vote for him. That’s a far higher level of commitment than any other candidate enjoys. Just 45% of McCain’s supporters are that “certain” along with 54% of those who support Thompson, 45% of Huckabee voters, and 36% of Giuliani fans.

I see California Mormons are up to the same en masse voting habits that their peers in other states follow.

Are there a lot of Mormons in CA? I'd imagine there are some in the eastern part of the state, but they have to be a tiny percentage compared to other western states.

According to the American Religious Identificiation Survey, only 1% of Californians (and therefore, going by Nevada, slightly over 2% of Republican voters) are Mormons.

[Stranger in a strange land]

However, as in other states, the voters in California are far from settled. Sixty-three percent (63%) of Romney’s supporters are certain they will vote for him. That’s a far higher level of commitment than any other candidate enjoys. Just 45% of McCain’s supporters are that “certain” along with 54% of those who support Thompson, 45% of Huckabee voters, and 36% of Giuliani fans.

I see California Mormons are up to the same en masse voting habits that their peers in other states follow.

Are there a lot of Mormons in CA? I'd imagine there are some in the eastern part of the state, but they have to be a tiny percentage compared to other western states.

According to the American Religious Identificiation Survey, only 1% of Californians (and therefore, going by Nevada, slightly over 2% of Republican voters) are Mormons.

Yeah that's about what I figured. I don't think it will be that close, but I think it might get Mitt some delegates that he might not otherwise get.

[defe07]

I personally think that for the Republican primary, all the candidates will get delegates. The map of the state would be very interesting. Luckily, Rep candidates can get delegates 2 ways: by winning the state or by winning a Congressional District. Each CD gives 3 delegates to the winner, other states also give 3 delegates but they have other rules. Anyways, this is one of the few states where McCain, Paul, Huckabee, Romney (and possibly Giuliani if he wins FL and Thompson if he doesn't step down) win delegates.