official Nevada Democratic results thread

[Meeker]

This may have already been mentioned, but the final delegate estimate was 13 for Clinton and 12 for Obama.

[Aizen]

Interestingly enough, Clinton won most of those At-Large precincts she was worrying about, only losing Caesar's and Luxor.

aww yeah Luxor. That's my favorite Vegas hotel

[exopolitician]

This may have already been mentioned, but the final delegate estimate was 13 for Clinton and 12 for Obama.

Obama's advisor was interviewed on MSNBC and said the 13 went to Obama and Clinton got the 12.....Im confused now.

[MasterJedi]

W00t, Go Hillary, you're the best chance Republicans and Conservatives have to win.

Plus, you're the only one who can make me vote for Romney if he's the nominee (if it's Obama V. Romney I'll vote Obama).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The REAL story out of this has to be the complete collapse of Edwards, nobody expected him to win, but surely no-one expected the wrong side of 5.

[exopolitician]

MSNBC is giving Obama 13 and Clinton 12....hummmmm

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've not really been paying much attention to the overall figures so bear with me but... did Edwards just finish behind Kucinich?

[Meeker]

I've not really been paying much attention to the overall figures so bear with me but... did Edwards just finish behind Kucinich?

No. He did not.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've not really been paying much attention to the overall figures so bear with me but... did Edwards just finish behind Kucinich?

No. He did not.

Sure? Awww...

[jimrtex]

Interestingly enough, Clinton won most of those At-Large precincts she was worrying about, only losing Caesar's and Luxor.

It may have been tactical.  

Voters who think that Clinton is being picked on because she is a woman or because her husband is Bill Clinton, might not recognize that it was the Democratic Party that established the at large caucuses last spring.  When the court upheld the rules, those voters may have simply seen it as a part of a vast right-wing conspiracy.  This could have increased Clinton turnout at ordinary residence-based caucus events.

Meanwhile, the lawsuit would have publicized the availability of the casino caucuses.  People who were at work may have been more likely to show up.  Those who did, might have gone with a work mate who might have had more influence over them than a union endorsement.

Apparently, the number of county delegates elected from the casino caucuses was based on the number who showed up, so that Clinton's performance at the at-large caucuses may have a double influence on the overall result.

[jimrtex]

MSNBC is giving Obama 13 and Clinton 12....hummmmm

National delegates are elected by CD and AL, but the delegates from CD 2, which includes most of the state plus part of Clark County (Las Vegas) is broken down into 3 subdistricts (Washoe County(Reno) 3; Rural Counties 1; and Clark County 2 delegates.  There are 6 and 4 delegates from CD 1 and CD 3, respectively.  At large pledged delegates are broken down into groups of 3 and 6 for pledged party leaders and ordinary folks.

Apparently, all the even-numbered delegations will be split evenly while the odd-numbered delegations will give the odd delegage to the leader.  This gives Obama a 2+1+1 = 4 to 1+0+1 = 2 advantage in CD 2, while Clinton will have a 3+2 = 5 to 3+1 = 4 advantage at the state level.

[Eraserhead]

Obama won the most delegates (nice surprise). I predicted he would lose the popular vote by a few points anyway. See you in South Carolina Hillary.

[Meeker]

Here's something from the WTF Files... in Clark County a county delegate was won by someone who is simply defined on the Nevada Democrats' website as "Other". We know it wasn't Kucinich, Gravel or Uncommitted. Who was it?

[Lief 🗽]

Edwards' low number is pretty shocking. Again, I assume the lawsuit, much like Clinton's crying in NH, actually benefited her amongst Democrats.

[Gabu]

Here's something from the WTF Files... in Clark County a county delegate was won by someone who is simply defined on the Nevada Democrats' website as "Other". We know it wasn't Kucinich, Gravel or Uncommitted. Who was it?

Richardson, maybe?

[Meeker]

Here's something from the WTF Files... in Clark County a county delegate was won by someone who is simply defined on the Nevada Democrats' website as "Other". We know it wasn't Kucinich, Gravel or Uncommitted. Who was it?

Richardson, maybe?

Perhaps. It came from Clark 4392 precinct, the other four delegates there went for Clinton. I'll try to figure out where that precinct is located.

[HardRCafé]

Edwards' low number is pretty shocking. Again, I assume the lawsuit, much like Clinton's crying in NH, actually benefited her amongst Democrats.

You have that low an opinion of Democrats?

[Meeker]

The precinct is located in the North/Central part of Las Vegas itself, near I-15 and Owens Avenue/North Main Street. I don't know enough about the racial or financial demographics of the area to fathom a guess though... from what I can tell on Google Earth it looks middle class or lower middle class.

[Lief 🗽]

Edwards' low number is pretty shocking. Again, I assume the lawsuit, much like Clinton's crying in NH, actually benefited her amongst Democrats.

You have that low an opinion of Democrats?

The Clinton's love playing victim politics, and union workers in Las Vegas just ate that up. For some reason. Even though Clinton destroyed unions.

[Ebowed]

Two questions:
1. When our less politically inclined friends ask about the result, who "won" this caucus?
2. What does exit polling tell us about race as a factor?

[Meeker]

2. What does exit polling tell us about race as a factor?

If Obama can't make large inroads with White voters and especially Latino voters within the next week and a half there is no realistic path to him winning the nomination.

[Cubby]

Obama playing strong in Washoe, running even with hill in clark

Is that good or bad... for the man who knows nothing about Nevada?

55% of the state's population are in Clark and another 20% in Washoe. Roughly.

This may not matter anymore, now that the caucus is over in Nevada, but Clark County had 68.9% of NV's population in the 2000 Census, and and estimated 71.2% in 2006.

The precinct is located in the North/Central part of Las Vegas itself, near I-15 and Owens Avenue/North Main Street. I don't know enough about the racial or financial demographics of the area to fathom a guess though... from what I can tell on Google Earth it looks middle class or lower middle class.

Thats some good detective work

The Clinton's love playing victim politics, and union workers in Las Vegas just ate that up. For some reason. Even though Clinton destroyed unions.

Eight years of Hillary Clinton will be very, very good for unions.

Was Bill's 8 year term very good for unions? They got NAFTA and their percentage of the workforce continued to decline (down to 13% of all workers). This image that Republicans have of Clinton as a mega-liberal is completely wrong. She's a DLC centrist, which to me is a bad thing.

[Gabu]

1. When our less politically inclined friends ask about the result, who "won" this caucus?

Well, Clinton won the popular vote, Obama got the most delegates, so... really, you can say whoever you wanted to win, kind of like in the 2000 presidential election.

[jimrtex]

The precinct is located in the North/Central part of Las Vegas itself, near I-15 and Owens Avenue/North Main Street. I don't know enough about the racial or financial demographics of the area to fathom a guess though... from what I can tell on Google Earth it looks middle class or lower middle class.

It is actually in North Las Vegas which is a separate city.  The census tract (38) in 2000 was about 60% Hispanic, 20% White, 20% Black.   42% foreign born.  36% non-citizen.  75% renter.  35% below the poverty line.

I'd guess that the one extra delegate is for Richardson, perhaps elected after Obama, Edwards, and Kucinich were under 15% and Clinton was poised to sweep the delegation.

[HardRCafé]

Was Bill's 8 year term very good for unions?

Only in the sense that after another eight years, they could find something else to do with their time.