Official SC Republican Primary Results Thread

[Meeker]

It's raining really hard. + for Paul and Huckabee, - for McCain and Thompson?

[War on Want]

Yeah Huckabee gets a bonus from what we expected, and it doesn't look like it will change to snow until 3:00 PM ET.

[J. J.]

That last minute snow can kill turnout.  There usually is a rush in the last two hours. 

When do the polls close in SC?

[Keystone Phil]

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7 PM EST

[exopolitician]

The polls have been open since early this morning and its been raining all afternoon....im sure if people REALLY wanted to get their vote out they would have already dont it. Snow wont probably be a factor for awhile

[minionofmidas]

Fingers crossed for Fred Thompson here.

[Person Man]

Go Hick!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I wonder what effect Romney's blow out Nevada victory has.

[ZamboniDriver]

Voting machine errors in Horry County and Myrtle Beach - paper ballots distributed and some voters asked to return later.

[minionofmidas]

I wonder what effect Romney's blow out Nevada victory has.

If any, it will probably hurt him. None of the Republican candidates can unite a majority of the base around him, so there's an ugly but entertaining "tear down the frontrunner" dynamic at play.

[Sam Spade]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/19/voting-machines-malfunction-in-south-carolina-republican-primary/

Report of voter machine malfunction in Horry County (Myrtle Beach area).  This is a McCain hotbed.  Supposedly, McCain's people are going to court to get the voting booths open for an extra hour (or so I hear).

[© tweed]

from Marc Ambinder

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is 53% high?  what was it in 2000?

[Sam Spade]

from Marc Ambinder

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is 53% high?  what was it in 2000?

53% would be high.  So actually, would 19% Independent participation.

I don't remember on veterans.

[© tweed]

the best I could do with the evangelical figure is calculate what % of Bush's support came from evangelicals in the 2004 GE....  26.4% of the SC electorate was evangelical-Bush....  55% of the Bush voters were non-evangelical.  not sure what that all means but the 53% seems pretty high, 19% Independents seems low...  small edge Huckabee until more info

[Sam Spade]

Also, per what I'm reading - it sounds like to me that Thompson will be dropping out after tonight.

[Sam Spade]

the best I could do with the evangelical figure is calculate what % of Bush's support came from evangelicals in the 2004 GE....  26.4% of the SC electorate was evangelical-Bush....  55% of the Bush voters were non-evangelical.  not sure what that all means but the 53% seems pretty high, 19% Independents seems low...  small edge Huckabee until more info

Calculating from GE will get you nowhere, FYI. 

[© tweed]

2000 SC exit poll
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/primaries/SC/poll.rep.html

27% were vets which McCain won just 48-47 (right on par with the 25% figure, but McCain should do better relative to the field in a more cluttered race, although he should do worse in an absolute vote % sense)


and the big bad news for John McCain

30% were Independents... dwarfing the 19% Ambinder gave us...  McCain won Indies 60-34%.  he might well be f***ed

[Sam Spade]

2000 SC exit poll
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/primaries/SC/poll.rep.html

27% were vets which McCain won just 48-47 (right on par with the 25% figure, but McCain should do better relative to the field in a more cluttered race, although he should do worse in an absolute vote % sense)


and the big bad news for John McCain

30% were Independents... dwarfing the 19% Ambinder gave us...  McCain won Indies 60-34%.  he might well be f***ed

Problem is that pretty much every previous poll in SC this year showed McCain roughly tied among Republicans with Huckabee.  I know that wasn't the case in 2000.

FWIW, the "early numbers" from the exit polls I'm hearing were that McCain was tied in the early morning numbers with Huck, but inched ahead by a few points in the afternoon.  Still later numbers to calculate...

This is one of those times when I would say - wait for the results. 

[Mr. Morden]

30% were Independents... dwarfing the 19% Ambinder gave us...  McCain won Indies 60-34%.  he might well be f***ed

But McCain won over 40% of the vote in the 2000 SC primary (because he was basically in a 2-way race with Bush).  This time, he could get less than 30%, and still win.

[Sam Spade]

Yep, from what I'm reading, this race appears to be too close to call right now - probably the reason why McCain's people are talking about going to court.

[minionofmidas]

What time to expect first results?

[Sam Spade]

What time to expect first results?

Polls close @ 7 PM.  I don't know how quick they are.

[Sam Spade]

This is what Fox says concerning the exit polls (mid-afternoon, I think), with a comparison:

1. Independents made up roughly 30% of the vote in 2000; they're 20% today.  Head to-head, they're breaking more or less the same as they did in 2000 - 62-38 McCain (versus 64-34 in 2000).

2. Veteran vote is up from 2000 (35% today versus 27% in 2000).  McCain is taking more of them on a head-to-head basis than 2000 - (60-40 versus 50-50).

3. Conservative vote is slightly up from 2000 (2/3rds now versus 61% in 2000). McCain is doing better than he did in 2000 (45-55 today versus 30-70 in 2000).

4. The Evangelical vote MIGHT be up from 2000. It's unclear because the 2000 exit poll asked if voters were a member of the religious right, not evangelical. Today, it's 53%. Back in 2000, they were 34%. Head-to-head, McCain is doing better than he did in 2000 - 40-60 versus 26-75.  But less "religious right" would benefit Huckabee, I think, and that number sounds high to me for McCain.


One final word of advice:  Do not trust exit polls, especially incomplete ones. 

[Mr. Morden]

Sam, just to clarify, what you mean when you say "head-to-head"?  Are you refering to the split between McCain and Huckabee as opposed to McCain and the field?  So, for example, when you say Indies are going 62-38 for McCain "head-to-head", does that mean that, among those Indies that voted for either McCain or Huckabee, Mac got 62% and Huck got 38%, or do you mean that Mac got 62% of *all* indies, even when considering other candidates?

[Sam Spade]

Sam, just to clarify, what you mean when you say "head-to-head"?  Are you refering to the split between McCain and Huckabee as opposed to McCain and the field?  So, for example, when you say Indies are going 62-38 for McCain "head-to-head", does that mean that, among those Indies that voted for either McCain or Huckabee, Mac got 62% and Huck got 38%, or do you mean that Mac got 62% of *all* indies, even when considering other candidates?

McCain vs. the field