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Author Topic: Huckabee..McCain...Romney  (Read 1950 times)
8 out of 11 is not deserved
pollwatch99-b
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« on: January 19, 2008, 05:25:40 pm »

Although I personally supported Rudy, it's fairly clear he isn't generating momentum.  He and Fred Thompson are very, very unlikely nominees.

These are 3 good man and not just traditional conservatives.  In fact each one is considered to have some items that conservatives aren't thrilled with.

Clearly Hillary has her campaign focused on OH, FL, and NM.  I worry that Romney's hard immigration stand will turn off Hispanics in FL and help the Democrats.   

Being realistic what "Dem" states do Huckabee, McCain, and Romney have a real shot at? 



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Padfoot
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« Reply #1 on: January 19, 2008, 07:57:58 pm »

Romney and Huckabee aren't going to win any states Bush didn't take in 2004.  The question with those two is not how many "blue states" they can win, its how many "red states" they will lose.

McCain has a legitimate shot at Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #2 on: January 19, 2008, 08:50:41 pm »

Romney and Huckabee aren't going to win any states Bush didn't take in 2004.  The question with those two is not how many "blue states" they can win, its how many "red states" they will lose.

McCain has a legitimate shot at Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.

only if Hillary is the nominee; even then, I have a hard time seeing Washington and Pennsylvania going Republican though. McCain could win back NH, and possibly WI and OR
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2008, 12:10:17 am »

Romney and Huckabee aren't going to win any states Bush didn't take in 2004.  The question with those two is not how many "blue states" they can win, its how many "red states" they will lose.

McCain has a legitimate shot at Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.

only if Hillary is the nominee; even then, I have a hard time seeing Washington and Pennsylvania going Republican though. McCain could win back NH, and possibly WI and OR

McCain (for many of the same reasons Giuliani does) could play very well in the SE suburbs, and perhaps could play better than Rudy in the rest of the state.  Of course Clinton would have an edge, but McCain could give her a run for her money.
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8 out of 11 is not deserved
pollwatch99-b
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« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2008, 09:46:54 am »

Rudy can only split us at this point.  You cannot finish behind Ron Paul as he did in South Carolina and be a viable national candidate.  His strategy on Florida firewall although criticized wasn't that bad IF HE SHOWED REASONABLE 2nd/3rd place support in early states.  Finishing behind Paul is a disgrace.   

Huckabee does makes statements that are scary and will destroy him in a national election.  I was very, very busy this week and just saw his statement about needing a constitution amendment for abortion.  The implication that we're going to align our words in the constitution with the words in the bible is an extreme view.  I glad Thompson was in the race to split the votes of the hard conservatives and thwart a buildup of Huckabee momentum. 

I do see McCain as being able to give Hillary a run for her money in the states mentioned by other posters except WA.  Anybody want to elaborate on why WA could be in play with a McCain candidacy.

I'm hard pressed to see Romney taking states from Hillary


 

 

 
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jeron
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« Reply #5 on: January 22, 2008, 07:45:55 am »

Well, McCain was ahead of Clinton by 3% in the latest SurveyUSA poll for WA. Really, i think McCain would crush Clinton in November. He will win WI, NH, OR and PE. And he might have a shot at WA and MN. I don't see any of the other Republican candidates taking away some states from the democrats though. In fact Romey will probably lose some states that Bush won in 2004 (IA, NM maybe OH, AR, MO and FL).
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auburntiger
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« Reply #6 on: January 26, 2008, 09:40:05 pm »
« Edited: January 26, 2008, 09:46:29 pm by auburntiger »

Washington and Minnesota will go to HRC.

My thoughts on Washington: Regardless of national elections because the state isn't seen as competitive, Seattle always seems to garner enough Dem votes to outvote the rest of the state in ANY statewide race. 'nuff said, WA is a core Democratic state.

Minnesota: not likely to switch. It hasn't voted for a GOP presidential candidate since 1972 and 2008 won't be the year it switches (2004 might have been). Correct me if I'm wrong, but Pawlenty, Coleman, and other GOP statewide elected officials have all failed to reach 50%, which means they have to win over some democrats and independents...strong Dem base.

Oregon might be interesting in a McCain/Hillary matchup, and I think McCain has a good shot to win. I can't really pin Oregon down on a trend-wise basis. It's gone Dem in the past 5 elections, but looking at trends, it has a tendency to be unpredictable. In fact, it's very similar to Colorado, only more Democratic.
1988 - D +12
1992 - D +4
1996 - R +0.5
2000 - even
2004 - D +6

With a large percentage of independent voters, with which McCain tends to do really well, if he can win by  4% nationally, he very well could win Oregon.
I personally know a family from the Portland area. the mom describes herself as politically independent with a leftward lean. She voted for Gore and Kerry. She is backing Obama, but she HATES Hillary Clinton and would vote for McCain over her any day of the week without a second thought.
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shua
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« Reply #7 on: January 27, 2008, 04:47:55 am »

Definitely Maine and New Hampshire for McCain - as these were GOP states not too long ago, and still each Republicans for both senators.  I also think generally McCain could be competitive in northern rural areas that the GOP has lost in part on environmental issues, where McCain could be seen as actually being stronger than the Democrat.
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etnavibes
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« Reply #8 on: January 27, 2008, 10:38:55 am »

Definitely Maine and New Hampshire for McCain - as these were GOP states not too long ago, and still each Republicans for both senators.  I also think generally McCain could be competitive in northern rural areas that the GOP has lost in part on environmental issues, where McCain could be seen as actually being stronger than the Democrat.

He could also turn my state into a swing state since we have a lot of moderate Republicans here too. If it were McCain vs. HRC I could see CT, NH, and ME going GOP and VT, MA and RI going Democrat. It seems like we need to get away from the GOP = Oil thing. McCain has an excellent environmental record and it is good that people like Huckabee invoke a religious perspective on the issue.
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jacob_101
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« Reply #9 on: January 27, 2008, 12:16:59 pm »

Huckabee could win Wisconsin (his populist message would work well here).  Other than that I don't see him winning anything else that Bush didn't win and probably would lose a few that Bush won.

McCain would likely carry all the states that Bush did and gain a couple......probably NH and some mid atlantic states, maybe even CT?

Romeny would carry most of the Bush states and lose some states such as Iowa, NM and OH and would lose the election.
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bbt
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« Reply #10 on: January 27, 2008, 04:36:28 pm »

I have zero use for McCain after he co authored the illegal immigration AMNESTY legislation last year............the only way I'd vote for McCain would be against Hillary.  If its McCain vs Obama then Obama will be the first Democratic Presidential nominee I've ever voted for
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