Huckabee..McCain...Romney

[auburntiger]

Romney and Huckabee aren't going to win any states Bush didn't take in 2004.  The question with those two is not how many "blue states" they can win, its how many "red states" they will lose.

McCain has a legitimate shot at Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.

only if Hillary is the nominee; even then, I have a hard time seeing Washington and Pennsylvania going Republican though. McCain could win back NH, and possibly WI and OR

[auburntiger]

Washington and Minnesota will go to HRC.

My thoughts on Washington: Regardless of national elections because the state isn't seen as competitive, Seattle always seems to garner enough Dem votes to outvote the rest of the state in ANY statewide race. 'nuff said, WA is a core Democratic state.

Minnesota: not likely to switch. It hasn't voted for a GOP presidential candidate since 1972 and 2008 won't be the year it switches (2004 might have been). Correct me if I'm wrong, but Pawlenty, Coleman, and other GOP statewide elected officials have all failed to reach 50%, which means they have to win over some democrats and independents...strong Dem base.

Oregon might be interesting in a McCain/Hillary matchup, and I think McCain has a good shot to win. I can't really pin Oregon down on a trend-wise basis. It's gone Dem in the past 5 elections, but looking at trends, it has a tendency to be unpredictable. In fact, it's very similar to Colorado, only more Democratic.
1988 - D +12
1992 - D +4
1996 - R +0.5
2000 - even
2004 - D +6

With a large percentage of independent voters, with which McCain tends to do really well, if he can win by  4% nationally, he very well could win Oregon.
I personally know a family from the Portland area. the mom describes herself as politically independent with a leftward lean. She voted for Gore and Kerry. She is backing Obama, but she HATES Hillary Clinton and would vote for McCain over her any day of the week without a second thought.