When fred drops out...

[ukchris82]

Who gets Fred's supporters?
Will they split evenly or favour one over the other?

If Huckabee gets them, is he able to sweep the rest of the South?

Cheers

[minionofmidas]

It depends a bit on what he says when he drops out. I get the sense Thompson is something of the southern wing of Romney, so him getting out w/o saying anything (especially while Paul, Huckasquirrel and Giuliani stay in) should help him... might be what's needed to prevent McCain actually. But it appears that if Thompson drops out, he might endorse McCain as the two are close personally.

[Gustaf]

It depends a bit on what he says when he drops out. I get the sense Thompson is something of the southern wing of Romney, so him getting out w/o saying anything (especially while Paul, Huckasquirrel and Giuliani stay in) should help him... might be what's needed to prevent McCain actually. But it appears that if Thompson drops out, he might endorse McCain as the two are close personally.

Thompson endorsed McCain in 2000 and I believe he was actually doing some work for the McCain campaign this time around before he decided to launch (if one can use that word about the Thompson campaign) his own. As for his supporters, I don't know. I'd expect most of them to split between McCain and Romney.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

before he decided to launch (if one can use that word about the Thompson campaign) his own. 

"Slide" seems like the best word.

[Cubby]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/19/sc.gop/index.html

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I agree with this assessment. (Stu Rothenberg is a CNN Political Analyst) Damnit Fred! You made Huckabee lose

It depends a bit on what he says when he drops out. I get the sense Thompson is something of the southern wing of Romney, so him getting out w/o saying anything (especially while Paul, Huckasquirrel and Giuliani stay in) should help him... might be what's needed to prevent McCain actually. But it appears that if Thompson drops out, he might endorse McCain as the two are close personally.

Why do you think that? Thompson supporters are more conservative than Romney supporters (although since we're talking about Republicans, they all are). I think Romney is close to McCain in the ideology of his supporters in the South. A lot of veterans seem to have voted for McCain in South Carolina, irregardless of their beliefs on the issues. I don't know whether this will happen in other states down there.

Going from the moderate to the evangelical wing of the GOP race right now on a spectrum would look something like this:


McCain         Romney                   Thompson                                       Huckabee       


I didn't include Paul because he could be in very different spots depending on the issue.     

[War on Want]

He will endorse McCain, but still most of his supporters will go to Romney or Huckabee. His Evangelical supporters will go to Huckabee, and his Catholic, or mainline Protestant supporters wil go to Romney.

[Lief 🗽]

Most of it will go to Huckabee, though Romney and McCain should also pick up some support.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

When Fred Thompson ends his lackluster campaign for the Presidency of the United States he'll endorse Senator John McCain. It would be the second time Thompson has endorsed McCain for President, he did so back in 2000.

Thompson's evangelical support will jump ship and support the Hickster. I cannot see mainline Protestant and Catholic supporters of Thompson supporting the Fraud. In my personal opinion I can see them supporting McCain.

Huckabee should do well in the South thanks to the evangelicals. They'll come out in droves to support Huckabee.

[minionofmidas]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/19/sc.gop/index.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I agree with this assessment. (Stu Rothenberg is a CNN Political Analyst) Damnit Fred! You made Huckabee lose

It depends a bit on what he says when he drops out. I get the sense Thompson is something of the southern wing of Romney, so him getting out w/o saying anything (especially while Paul, Huckasquirrel and Giuliani stay in) should help him... might be what's needed to prevent McCain actually. But it appears that if Thompson drops out, he might endorse McCain as the two are close personally.

Why do you think that? Thompson supporters are more conservative than Romney supporters (although since we're talking about Republicans, they all are).

I was thinking more along the line of "establishment conservativism"... hard to pinpoint on what issues that would be I guess, although should correlate with Bush approvals and income. I haven't studied SC exit polls and may be totally wrong...

[Cubby]

I was thinking more along the line of "establishment conservativism"... hard to pinpoint on what issues that would be I guess, although should correlate with Bush approvals and income. I haven't studied SC exit polls and may be totally wrong...

Establishment conservatives at this point support McCain or Romney. Thompson started off stronger, but now only has evangelicals who think Huckabee can't win, and maybe some normal conservatives who hate McCain and Romney.

He will endorse McCain, but still most of his supporters will go to Romney or Huckabee. His Evangelical supporters will go to Huckabee, and his Catholic, or mainline Protestant supporters wil go to Romney.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^