who do you THINK will win the Democratic nomination?

[CultureKing]

Yeah, I don't see how Obama can win at this point. When he wins South Carolina, even if it's by 10 points or more, the media will just point out that he won it because he's the black candidate. Then Clinton will crush him in Florida and win on Super Tuesday.

Am I the only one who doesn't think Florida will really matter all that much?? It doesn't have any delegates so I don't see why it would have any significance.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Obama

[Michael Z]

That ghastly, horrendous excuse for a human being known as Hillary Clinton, unfortunately.

[Hash]

Clinton

[Democratic Hawk]

Hillary Clinton, who has the demographic edge over Obama, right now, and my fear is that this is about to get worse

The more and more the African American vote rallies for Obama, the greater the 'backlash' from whites and Hispanics. If Obama fails to secure, at least, 30% of the white vote in SC, in a three way fight, that may well be all too ominous of things to come

I'm not enamored with the Clinton's right now. Bill, as a former president, shouldn't even be aggressively campaigning for Hillary in the Democratic primaries. He should have retained his neutrality until the Democratic Party settled on its presidential nominee

My one great hope, however, is that Democrats can unite behind the eventual Democratic nominee but given all the 'nastiness', I won't hold my breath

As 2008 dawned, I was optimistic about Democratic fortunes this fall but what with Democrats becoming all too polarised among themselves and the likelihood of a McCain GOP candidacy, I'm just not feeling that way any more

Dave

[Michael Z]

Hillary Clinton, who has the demographic edge over Obama, right now, and my fear is that this is about to get worse

The more and more the African American vote rallies for Obama, the greater the 'backlash' from whites and Hispanics. If Obama fails to secure, at least, 30% of the white vote in SC, in a three way fight, that may well be all too ominous of things to come

I'm not enamored with the Clinton's right now. Bill, as a former president, shouldn't even be aggressively campaigning for Hillary in the Democratic primaries. He should have retained his neutrality until the Democratic Party settled on its presidential nominee

My one great hope, however, is that Democrats can unite behind the eventual Democratic nominee but given all the 'nastiness', I won't hold my breath

As 2008 dawned, I was optimistic about Democratic fortunes this fall but what with Democrats becoming all too polarised among themselves and the likelihood of a McCain GOP candidacy, I'm just not feeling that way any more

Dave

I totally agree.

It's early days, but it's looking more than likely that Clinton will receive the nomination, and call me melodramatic, but the Democrats have the opportunity of a generation in Obama and they're about to squander it. Anti-Republican sentiment at the moment is extremely high (comparable to the anti-liberal sentiment of the early 70s), and the Democrats have a candidate who is extremely likeable, can attract a swathe of independents and Republicans and thus potentially change the political landscape for a good decade or so.

What do they do instead? They pick someone half the country can't stand, and who has proven in this campaign that she would NOT swerve away from the kind of smear tactics that have plagued American politics and utterly poisoned political discourse for the past quarter-century or so.

THE IDIOTS.

God, this is depressing.

[agcatter]

Yep, Hillary Clinton gives the Republicans a chance in November when, under present conditions, they should have no chance whatsoever.  By all means, nominate Hillary.

[NHPolitico]

What do they do instead? They pick someone half the country can't stand, and who has proven in this campaign that she would NOT swerve away from the kind of smear tactics that have plagued American politics and utterly poisoned political discourse for the past quarter-century or so.

That's the reason, though, why Hillary is winning the nomination! Voters say they hate that stuff, but their voting says otherwise.

[Flying Dog]

What really gets me is the Clinton's arrogance. I get the feeling like they think they deserve this. It infuriates me.

[Michael Z]

What really gets me is the Clinton's arrogance. I get the feeling like they think they deserve this. It infuriates me.

Definitely. Remember her "tears" in New Hampshire? People kept harping on about how it showed that Clinton "had feelings" or whatever, but it actually struck me as quite insidious. There was something really Nixonian about it. It was as if she was crying for herself and on behalf of all those poor wee voters who were failing to realise that they needed her.

But what's become patent in this campaign is that the Clintons seem to think it's their god-given right to have power, and they'll do whatever it takes to get it. Power for power's sake.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What do they do instead? They pick someone half the country can't stand, and who has proven in this campaign that she would NOT swerve away from the kind of smear tactics that have plagued American politics and utterly poisoned political discourse for the past quarter-century or so.

There is a certain twisted logic to it though. Clinton is an extremely polarising figure, but she polarises along lines that are, at least in theory, electorally favourable to her party.

[Michael Z]

What do they do instead? They pick someone half the country can't stand, and who has proven in this campaign that she would NOT swerve away from the kind of smear tactics that have plagued American politics and utterly poisoned political discourse for the past quarter-century or so.

There is a certain twisted logic to it though. Clinton is an extremely polarising figure, but she polarises along lines that are, at least in theory, electorally favourable to her party.

The exact same thing applies to Bush43, though. But in the end it proved detrimental to his party (not to mention America and the world), because you can only be polarising and divisive for so long.

[Nym90]

What do they do instead? They pick someone half the country can't stand, and who has proven in this campaign that she would NOT swerve away from the kind of smear tactics that have plagued American politics and utterly poisoned political discourse for the past quarter-century or so.

There is a certain twisted logic to it though. Clinton is an extremely polarising figure, but she polarises along lines that are, at least in theory, electorally favourable to her party.

True, and that's why I don't buy the argument that Clinton is unelectable. Her proven ability to attract working class white voters who swung to Bush in 2000 and especially in 2004 is a big part of the reason why I feel she would win.

Of course I do concur with Michael Z and others that ultimately Clinton winning won't do nearly as much as Obama to improve the country, the world, or the state of politics in general.

[Michael Z]

I don't think Clinton's unelectable either, but to my mind the issue is not, Can she become President, but What will she be like as President? I've said this many times before, America is facing many issues and problems right now that do NOT require yet another polarising, divisive President, but someone who has adopted a conciliatory and bipartisan approach.

If Clinton becomes President, it'll be a case of same old same old. The same old partisan-driven politics where left and right hate each other's guts and nothing gets done in the process. Obama, however, could provide a major seismic shift as President, comparable to Reagan in 80 or FDR in 32 (in that they caused the political mainstream the shift in favour of one part of the spectrum). Left-leaning Democrats have a major opportunity to take over the political mainstream, but if they nominate Clinton they will have squandered it.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I don't think Clinton's unelectable either, but to my mind the issue is not, Can she become President, but What will she be like as President? I've said this many times before, America is facing many issues and problems right now that do NOT require yet another polarising, divisive President, but someone who has adopted a conciliatory and bipartisan approach.

If Clinton becomes President, it'll be a case of same old same old. The same old partisan-driven politics where left and right hate each other's guts and nothing gets done in the process. Obama, however, could provide a major seismic shift as President, comparable to Reagan in 80 or FDR in 32 (in that they caused the political mainstream the shift in favour of one part of the spectrum). Left-leaning Democrats have a major opportunity to take over the political mainstream, but if they nominate Clinton they will have squandered it.

I completely agree.  I have wanted to make this point but haven't had the time or the inclination to do so.

[TheGlobalizer]

All of the above criticisms of Hillary are why I think Obama gets the nom.  He does dramatically better in a state once he starts campaigning there, and I think that continues.  SC will give him a nice bump, if he can spin the "black vote" thing the right way.

[© tweed]

All of the above criticisms of Hillary are why I think Obama gets the nom.  He does dramatically better in a state once he starts campaigning there, and I think that continues.  SC will give him a nice bump, if he can spin the "black vote" thing the right way.

he can't campaign in 21 states at once.

he's going to win SC, but he can't do what you suggest he does on ST and will get killed.

[TheGlobalizer]

There's also an exposure bump just from being the primary that is "next in line".

He's definitely on the tough side of the equation right now, tho.

[exopolitician]

I think we'll understand fully after South Carolina....depending on if he wins there [and its a big win]....he could get a bump. Hes got some good support in Florida which could only get better if he actually did win SC....even tho Florida doesnt really count. Its likely that he will lose California tho, but oddly hes polling kinda well in New York...Clinton spawning site.

[Angel of Death]

but oddly hes polling kinda well in New York...Clinton spawning site.

Ever heard of the expression "familiarity breeds contempt"?

[cp]

Exactly what part of being down by 25 points do you consider 'polling kinda well'?

[exopolitician]

Ive heard hes had good support there, even tho most of the retirees and hispanics will side with Hillary much of the time. Ive never taken polls seriously tho....[sometimes I should tho].