who do you THINK will win the Republican nomination?

[© tweed]

May 2006

George Allen 40.6%
John McCain 31.9%
Mitt Romney 8.7%
Rudy Giuliani 8.7%
Other 8.7%

August 2006

John McCain 39.5%
George Allen 21.1%
Mitt Romney 13.2%
Rudy Giuliani 13.2%
Other (excl. Rice) 13.2%

November 2006

John McCain 46.2%
Mitt Romney 23.1%
Rudy Giuliani 15.4%
Mike Huckabee 7.7%
Newt Gingrich 7.7%


March 2007

Rudy Giuliani 45.7%
John McCain 28.6%
Mike Huckabee 11.4%
Mitt Romney 5.7%
Sam Brownback 2.9%
Other (excl. Gingrich) 5.7%

April 2007

Fred Thompson 46.9%
Rudy Giuliani 26.5%
Mitt Romney 12.2%
John McCain 10.2%
Other (excl. Gingrich, Hagel) 4.1%

June 2007

Fred Thompson 34.2%
Rudy Giuliani 31.6%
Mitt Romney 21.1%
John McCain 5.3%
Mike Huckabee 5.3%
Ron Paul 2.6%

July 2007

Mitt Romney 40.9%
Rudy Giuliani 34.1%
Fred Thompson 22.7%
John McCain 2.3%

August 2007

Mitt Romney 42.6%
Rudy Giuliani 31.1%
Mike Huckabee 16.4%
Fred Thompson 4.9%
Ron Paul 4.9%

September 2007

Mitt Romney 52.4%
Rudy Giuliani 31%
Ron Paul 9.5%
Fred Thompson 4.8%
John McCain 2.4%

October 2007

Mitt Romney 44.9%
Rudy Giuliani 30.6%
Mike Huckabee 10.2%
Ron Paul 6.1%
Condoleeza Rice 4.1%
John McCain 2%
Fred Thompson 2%

November 2007

Mitt Romney 39.6%
Rudy Giuliani 27.1%
Mike Huckabee 25%
Ron Paul 4.2%
John McCain 2.1%
Condoleeza Rice 2.1%

December 21-23, 2007

Mitt Romney 36.2%
Mike Huckabee 36.2%
John McCain 17%
Rudy Giuliani 8.5%
Fred Thompson 2.1%

December 31, 2007 - January 2, 2008

Mitt Romney 55.3%
John McCain 26.3%
Mike Huckabee 7.9%
Rudy Giuliani 5.3%
Ron Paul 5.3%

January 5-7, 2008

John McCain 53.2%
Mike Huckabee 29.8%
Mitt Romney 6.4%
Rudy Giuliani 6.4%
Ron Paul 2.1%
other 2.1%

January 10-13, 2008

John McCain 60.4%
Mike Huckabee 27.1%
Rudy Giuliani 6.3%
Mitt Romney 4.2%
Fred Thompson 2.1%

[NHPolitico]

You can feel the rank and file moving toward McCain, even though many of the activists don't like him.

[Person Man]

He still has Florida and Romney as the prime obstacles.

[MarkWarner08]

If McCain wins in Florida, he's the nominee. If Romney wins in Florida, the race will continue for at least one more month. If Rudy wins in Florida, McCain's probably the nominee.

[TheGlobalizer]

McCain.  He's like Giuliani with less warts, from a Republican perspective.

Huckabee and Thompson are just not good candidates.  Normally, evangelicals would have some sway, but after these two are finished fighting, there won't be much left but a couple of bloody carcasses.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Sadly, I say McCain

[Person Man]

If McCain wins in Florida, he's the nominee. If Romney wins in Florida, the race will continue for at least one more month. If Rudy wins in Florida, McCain's probably the nominee.

yeah

[TheGlobalizer]

If McCain wins in Florida, he's the nominee. If Romney wins in Florida, the race will continue for at least one more month. If Rudy wins in Florida, McCain's probably the nominee.

Agree with the first two, but Giuliani has the emotional resume with people that could see his poll numbers rise very, very fast.  You know, McCain-esque.

[J. J.]

At this point, McCain.

[Storebought]

Mitt Romney. He has the most delegates and his bankroll is endless

[exopolitician]

If McCain wins in Florida, he's the nominee. If Romney wins in Florida, the race will continue for at least one more month. If Rudy wins in Florida, McCain's probably the nominee.

I think Florida will be hard for McCain, because I was watching the news earlier and they explained Florida is a closed Primary...so only registered Republicans vote. McCain has recieved victories due to a large independent turnout....and I forgot how many actual Republicans voted for him in SC but it was low. They called it "fake momentum".

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Hillary's bestest buddy

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

If McCain wins in Florida, he's the nominee. If Romney wins in Florida, the race will continue for at least one more month. If Rudy wins in Florida, McCain's probably the nominee.

I think Florida will be hard for McCain, because I was watching the news earlier and they explained Florida is a closed Primary...so only registered Republicans vote. McCain has recieved victories due to a large independent turnout....and I forgot how many actual Republicans voted for him in SC but it was low. They called it "fake momentum".

Huckabee won Republicans 33-30% in South Carolina, while McCain won Independents 39-22%.

[MarkWarner08]

If McCain wins in Florida, he's the nominee. If Romney wins in Florida, the race will continue for at least one more month. If Rudy wins in Florida, McCain's probably the nominee.

Agree with the first two, but Giuliani has the emotional resume with people that could see his poll numbers rise very, very fast.  You know, McCain-esque.

But isn't he effectively broke? His base also overlaps with McCain's. If Rudy wins in FL, he'll probably hold New York and win in NJ and CT. Beyond those states, he'll split the moderate vote with McCain and help Romney.

It's also possible that Rudy could win in FL and receive little momentum going into Feb. 5th. Giuliani will also be hurt by his weak or non-existent organization in states not named Florida.

[exopolitician]

If McCain wins in Florida, he's the nominee. If Romney wins in Florida, the race will continue for at least one more month. If Rudy wins in Florida, McCain's probably the nominee.

I think Florida will be hard for McCain, because I was watching the news earlier and they explained Florida is a closed Primary...so only registered Republicans vote. McCain has recieved victories due to a large independent turnout....and I forgot how many actual Republicans voted for him in SC but it was low. They called it "fake momentum".

Huckabee won Republicans 33-30% in South Carolina, while McCain won Independents 39-22%.

Not that big of a gap I guess...but it might make some sort of a difference.

[JSojourner]

McCain, probably.  I wouldn't rule out a Romney surge but a massive infusion of cash can only take you so far.


Interesting that Ron Paul is a choice on the poll and has no votes.  Don't the Ron Paul folks know about this forum?  He usually wins every online poll.  ;-)

[Robespierre's Jaw]

John Sidney McCain. He'll rap up the nomination if he wins Florida.

[Nym90]

The odds favor McCain, but Romney certainly is still a very viable contender. Giuliani is also not out of the picture. Huckabee is dead.

[Frodo]

I am leaning toward McCain -if he wins Florida next Tuesday, then it's pretty much a done deal, particularly given that it is a closed primary. 

[Sam Spade]

McCain

[Mr. Morden]

I am leaning toward McCain -if he wins Florida next Saturday, then it's pretty much a done deal, particularly given that it is a closed primary. 

I don't think he'll win it on Saturday, since the Florida primary is on Tuesday, Jan. 29th. 

[Eraserhead]

John McCain (unless Romney beats him in Florida).

[ShadowRocket]

John McCain.

[Verily]

McCain. Romney is the only other candidate I won't rule out.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Romney