Election Night 2008

[auburntiger]

Regarding November 4, 2008 Election Returns, here is a map-by-map prediction of which states go to which candidate. Once Super Tuesday is over and done with, McCain and Hillay both emerge as the parties' nominees. McCain picks SC governor Mark Sanford, and Hillary picks IN Sen. Evan Bayh.   

Assuming it's going to be McCain vs. Hillary, here's how I think it will play out on Election Night.


Polls Close 7:00 EST:

McCain 34, Clinton 3

Polls Close 7:30 EST:

McCain 49, Clinton 3

Polls Close 8:00 EST:

McCain 96, Clinton 78

Polls Close 8:30 EST

McCain 101, Clinton 78

Polls Close 9:00 EST

McCain 168, Clinton 117

Polls Close 10:00 EST

McCain 220, Clinton 155

Polls Close 11:00 EST

McCain 240, Clinton 230

Polls Close 12:00 EST

McCain 263, Clinton 241

12:10
Wisconsin - McCain. McCain is projected as the winner

12:15
Oregon, Iowa - Clinton

12:20
Nevada, New Mexico - McCain


McCain wins 283-255

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Clinton/Bayh v. McCain/Hutchison

7:00:

McCain leads Clinton 23-3, with 32 undecided

7:30:

McCain leads Clinton 38-3, with 57 undecided

8:00:

Clinton leads 78-71 with 120 undecided

8:30

Clinton leads 84-71, with 120 undecided

9:00:

McCain leads 141-123, with 161 undecided

10:00:

McCain leads 202-158, with 85 undecided

11:00:

Clinton leads 251-229, with 55 undecided

1:00

Clinton is elected 301-237.

[Mr.Phips]

Im almost certain that Democrats will not want Bayh to give up that Senate seat.  I don't even think he would get Indiana for Democrats. 

[Lief 🗽]

Clinton/Richardson vs. McCain/Sanford

7:00

McCain 19, Clinton 3, Not Called 36, Not Closed 480

7:30

McCain 34, Clinton 3, Not Called 61, Not Closed 440

8:00

McCain 70, Clinton 71, Not Called 129, Not Closed 268

8:30

McCain 81, Clinton 81, Not Called 116, Not Closed 260

9:00

McCain 154, Clinton 141, Not Called 136, Not Closed 107

10:00

McCain 175, Clinton 198, Not Called 85, Not Closed 80

11:00

McCain 208, Clinton 286, Not Called 36, Not Closed 3
The election is called for Clinton!

1:00

Clinton 319, McCain 219

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Clinton landslide? With Richardson as her VP?

[Person Man]

I'm sure that Clinton is able to take Nevada... Maybe Colorado, too. 

[Mr.Phips]

I'm sure that Clinton is able to take Nevada... Maybe Colorado, too. 

Clinton's unfavorables are awful in Colorado.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I'm sure that Clinton is able to take Nevada... Maybe Colorado, too. 

Not if she runs against neighbor McCain

[Person Man]

I'm sure that Clinton is able to take Nevada... Maybe Colorado, too. 

Not if she runs against neighbor McCaquote]

Ummmm... Bush was from Texas and he didn't win New Mexico until 2004.
I don't think proximity works in the west.

[MarkWarner08]

Im almost certain that Democrats will not want Bayh to give up that Senate seat.  I don't even think he would get Indiana for Democrats. 

Mr. Phips, No need to be a voice of reason.

Remember when folks thought Gordon Smith or Norm Coleman would make a great running-mate for McCain? Sometimes I think there are only a handful of people on this forum who actually follow Congressional elections.

[Person Man]

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2004/may/may29.html
It was thought that this would happen.

[perdedor]

Clinton/Richardson vs. McCain/Sanford

Clinton 319, McCain 219

Clinton would not win Missouri, Arkansas, New Mexico, or West Virginia against McCain. Period. It would also take a small miracle for her to best McCain in Virginia.

[Frodo]

McCain wins 283-255

With the exception of Arkansas, I agree with your map. 

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Clinton/Richardson vs. McCain/Sanford

Clinton 319, McCain 219

Clinton would not win Missouri, Arkansas, New Mexico, or West Virginia against McCain. Period. It would also take a small miracle for her to best McCain in Virginia.

Every single poll since forever has shown Clinton crushing every single opponent in Arkansas. And the only WV poll realesed so far showed the Ds well ahead and it was a partizan Republican poll.

Things change with different candidates - Bill Clinton did better in Louisana than in Vermont in 1996 for instance.

[Lief 🗽]

McCain is barely tied with Clinton in the national polls right now, and that's with the media pushing him constantly for the past 2 months. He's not going to beat Clinton; the primary season has proven that she's a very competent, effective campaigner.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Clinton/Richardson vs. McCain/Sanford

Clinton 319, McCain 219

Clinton would not win Missouri, Arkansas, New Mexico, or West Virginia against McCain. Period. It would also take a small miracle for her to best McCain in Virginia.

Every single poll since forever has shown Clinton crushing every single opponent in Arkansas. And the only WV poll realesed so far showed the Ds well ahead and it was a partizan Republican poll.

Things change with different candidates - Bill Clinton did better in Louisana than in Vermont in 1996 for instance.

Listen to Gully, even if only this one time.

[Joe Biden 2020]

6:00 CST

McCain 34 -- Clinton 3 -- Not Called 21 -- Polls Still Open 480

6:30 CST

McCain 49 -- Clinton 3 -- Not Called 46 -- Polls Still Open 440

7:00 CST

Clinton 82 -- McCain 75 -- Not Called 116 -- Polls Still Open 265

7:30 CST

Clinton 88 -- McCain 75 -- Not Called 116 -- Polls Still Open 259

8:00 CST

McCain 145 -- Clinton 129 -- Not Called 157 -- Polls Still Open 107

9:00 CST

Clinton 199 -- McCain 174 -- Not Called 78 -- Polls Still Open 87

10:00 CST

Game Over:    Clinton 279 -- McCain 217 -- Not Called 39 -- Polls Still Open 3

12:00

President-Elect Hillary Rodham Clinton -- 297
Republican Senator from Arizona John McCain -- 241[/b]

[Stranger in a strange land]

I'm sure that Clinton is able to take Nevada... Maybe Colorado, too. 

Not if she runs against neighbor McCain

that wouldn't matter; the West doesn't have a strong regionalist mentality. What WOULD matter is that Hillary is seen as pro-big government, which most Westerners oppose. That's why Hillary will lose NV and CO.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Hillary beats McCain in Oklahoma, a Republican leaning Florida, Ohio, and West Virginia, yet McCain wins Pennsylvania?

[Josh/Devilman88]

7:00 pm

Clinton:3   McCain:42  Not Called:44

7:30

Clinton:3 McCain:42 Not Called: 84


8:00

Clinton:63  McCain:115  Not Called:148

8:30

Clinton:80  McCain:124 Not Called:128

9:00

Clinton:156  McCain:144  Not Called:131

10:00

Clinton:184   McCain:207  Not Called:67


11:00

Clinton: 269  McCain: 227  Not Called: 39



(All states in)

Clinton: 303  McCain: 235

[Person Man]

I'm sure that Clinton is able to take Nevada... Maybe Colorado, too. 

Not if she runs against neighbor McCain

that wouldn't matter; the West doesn't have a strong regionalist mentality. What WOULD matter is that Hillary is seen as pro-big government, which most Westerners oppose. That's why Hillary will lose NV and CO.

but she's strong with Hispanics and can show how mcCain waffles on taxes. - That should be her goal.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

7:00 PM

McCain 32
Clinton 3

7:30 PM

McCain 32
Clinton 3

8:00 PM

McCain 79
Clinton 37

8:30 PM

McCain 121
Clinton 64

9:00PM

McCain 154
Clinton 112

10:00 PM

McCain 271
Clinton 124

11:00 PM

McCain 326
Clinton 186

12:00 AM

McCain 329
Clinton 209


Clinton's polarization and McCain's favorable ratings among Independents prove to be too much.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

7pm McCain - 34 Clinton -3 Undecided - 52 (449 yet to close)

7:30pm McCain - 49 Clinton -3 Undecided - 77 (409 yet to close)

8pm McCain - 96 Clinton - 51 Undecided - 109 (282 yet to call)

8:30pm McCain - 96 Clinton - 78 Undecided - 126 (238 yet to be called)

9pm McCain - 126 Clinton - 85 Undecided - 133 (194 yet to close)

10pm McCain - 173 Clinton - 155 Undecided 130 (yet to close 80)

11pm Clinton - 242 McCain - 173 Undecided - 116 (yet to close 7)

12am EST - Clinton - 257 McCain - 200 Undecided - 81

12:25am EST - Clinton - 269 McCain - 200 Undecided - 69

1:15am EST - Clinton - 299 McCain - 200 Undecided - 39

Hillary Clinton is Elected President of the United States

Iowa and Nevada go to recounts - Florida is declared for Clinton at 4:20am. Nevada goes to McCain by 892 votes and Iowa to Clinton by 965

Clinton- 333
McCain - 205

[they don't love you like i love you]

12:00 AM

McCain 329
Clinton 209

Clinton's polarization and McCain's favorable ratings among Independents prove to be too much.

How does McCain win here (where he's trailed Clinton in every poll) but win Iowa?

[Stranger in a strange land]

I'm sure that Clinton is able to take Nevada... Maybe Colorado, too. 

Not if she runs against neighbor McCain

that wouldn't matter; the West doesn't have a strong regionalist mentality. What WOULD matter is that Hillary is seen as pro-big government, which most Westerners oppose. That's why Hillary will lose NV and CO.

but she's strong with Hispanics and can show how mcCain waffles on taxes. - That should be her goal.

For now, Hispanic population translates very poorly into votes due to lack of citizenship and the youth of the native-born hispanic population. They'll be much more of a factor in a few years, and I feel they will be a factor in 2008, but not yet enough to flip any states to Hillary.