NJ-Neighborhood Research: McCain slightly ahead of Giuliani

[Tender Branson]

McCain: 31%
Giuliani: 26%
Romney: 18%
Huckabee: 9%
Paul: 4%
Thompson: 1%
Undecided: 12%

Respondents from Sunday and Monday who said they supported Thompson were reinterviewed Tuesday about their new preferences, and prior to dropping out, Thompson was receiving 8 percent of the vote.

"These voters are shifting heavily to Romney and this could be a sign that the former Massachusetts Governor is about to expand his support with conservatives with Thompson out of the race," said Rick Shaftan of Neighborhood Research. "83 percent of Thompson supporters considered themselves conservative -- higher than any other candidate."

Shaftan said among respondents who supported Thompson, 30% back Romney, 17% Giuliani, 9% Huckabee and just 4% for McCain.

Conducted for a private client on Sunday through Tuesday by Neighborhood Research of Franklin, the survey of 380 likely Republican voters has a theoretical margin of error of +/- 5.0% in 95% of cases.

http://www.politickernj.com/mccain-jumps-over-giuliani-gop-poll-15651

[Alcon]

That's interesting information to have, actually.

Thanks, whoever-you-people-are.

[Gustaf]

Though, as I noted before this would give Romney v McCain an edge of (30-4)*8%=2.08%. That's a boost but in the big picture of momentum, debates, ads, etc it's pretty marginal. Also, if we assume Guliani is about to get knocked out and most of his supporters would go to McCain than the Romney boost is maybe as small as 1%. Given the low levels of Thompson support I think there are few places where this will actually matter all that much.