Any chance for Obama left?

[Jacobtm]

Obama has actually won more delegates than Hillary Clinton has so far in the primaries/caucuses that have occured, and is about to win South Carolina by a big margin.

But this will likely be written off as a win just based on race, and hillary Clinton has a huge lead in Florida, which may or may not matter, and an equally huge lead in states like New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and California, which certainly do matter.

So, after Obama wins SC, what can he possibly do to win the nomination? Can winning Illinois and a few other states on Super Tuesday be enough to keep him going through the whole primary season? I know pronouncing the deaths of campaigns has a terrible track record in this race, but I just can't see what Obama can do to beat Hillary in enough contests to win the nomination...

[Meeker]

Who predicted Obama would win Iowa by such a wide margin and that Clinton would get knocked into third?

Who predicted Clinton would win NH?

Who predicted Edwards would get only 4% in Nevada?


Strange things have, can and will happen. Obama's still in this... although it is somewhat difficult to see a path to him winning unless the racial voting patterns change sometime in the next week and a half.

[elcorazon]

I know momentum is more important than delegate counts, but Russert was on tv today talking about the way proportional delegates work and the way he described it in districts with 4 delegates, the winner would have to get over 59% of the vote to get 3 delegates, so even if barack trails in a lot of these districts, delegates will be even.  Much of the serious campaigning is taking place in districts with an odd number of delegates, where you can get a majority by winning the district.

In other words, Hillary could win 70%of the states or more on Super Tuesday but only have a slight delegate lead, which would leave her vulnerable at any time to a shift in support/momentum even after Super Tuesday... we'll see... not only that but Barack might surprise on Super Tuesday as well.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

As meeker rightly states this has been a VERY unpredictable season.

Obama needs to re-expand his appeal to women if he's going to win it. He stays as the youth/AA candidate he's screwed.

[Trilobyte]

Obama should pour massive resources into winning California. No candidate who wins California can be considered unviable by the media so that will allow him to stay in the race. If he can't win California or another big state besides Illinois, it's over.

[John Dibble]

Obama should pour massive resources into winning California. No candidate who wins California can be considered unviable by the media so that will allow him to stay in the race. If he can't win California or another big state besides Illinois, it's over.

I doubt he can win California, but he needs to not get slaughtered there. If it's close he'll be alright.

[ukchris82]

Aren't some states winner takes all?
Which ones?

Cheers

[Middle-aged Europe]

Aren't some states winner takes all?
Which ones?

Cheers

Not on the Democratic side...

[7,052,770]

Sure he could still do it, but I don't anticipate it.

[Sam Spade]

Obama had no chance from the moment he entered the Dem race.  Just FYI 

[MarkWarner08]

The cynics say no, but I prefer to believe the hope peddlers...

Here's how Obama wins:
1. Beat Hilldawg by +5% in SC
2. Win more delegates than Hillary on Feb. 5th
3. Come close in CA + pull off big wins in Missouri, Minnesota, Colorado. Such a trifecta would reinforce his nationwide appeal.
4. Dump $$$ into Ohio and Texas...
5. Hope Edwards voters switch en masse to the Anti-Hillary


I'd say he has a 25% shot of winning the nomination.

[MarkWarner08]

Who predicted Obama would win Iowa by such a wide margin and that Clinton would get knocked into third?

Who predicted Clinton would win NH?

Who predicted Edwards would get only 4% in Nevada?


Strange things have, can and will happen. Obama's still in this... although it is somewhat difficult to see a path to him winning unless the racial voting patterns change sometime in the next week and a half.

Great points...  I'd say Obama's race + his $$$ will keep him in the race till at least March.

[Eraserhead]

Obama had no chance from the moment he entered the Dem race.  Just FYI 

This from the guy who thought Giuliani was a safe bet for the Republican nomination...

[Gabu]

The cynic in me says no.

The realist in me says no.

The optimist in me says... no.

[Boris]

No, he's getting absolutely raped among the demographics one needs in order to win the Democratic Nomination.

[Ogre Mage]

Months ago I placed the chances of Hillary winning the nomination at 75% and Obama at 15%.  Now that the other candidates are out of the race I would put it at Hillary 80% / Obama 20% (we all know Edwards is done).  Whether one considers a 20% chance to be a decent chance is open for debate.  I would not place money on him winning.

Obama needs to keep expanding his coalition but I'm not sure there is enough time left.  In some areas he has already done this.  For instance, earlier in the campaign the sole age demographic he won was the under 30 crowd.  But he is now extremely competitive with voters 30-45.  I'm not sure where Obama can look for more votes, but two groups he is unlikely to have success with are seniors and Hispanics.  There is little chance he can break Hillary's strength there for a variety of reasons.  

Obama is likely to win easily in South Carolina.  Going into Super Tuesday, perhaps he can spin his wins in Iowa and S.C. to show he has appeal across the board.  But after South Carolina the playing field is tilted in Clinton's favor for Feb. 5th.  Obama has to hope that perhaps he can win delegates in key areas, as he did in Nevada, to combat Hillary's likely popular vote victory.  I cringe at that, though, because as a grassroots candidate that doesn't create a good perception.  And make no mistake -- Hillary Clinton is extremely well positioned for Super Tuesday.  I predict she will do very well.

[Reignman]

I can see no way of him getting the nomination unless he wins Florida.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm starting to think that the only way he can hope to be remotely competitive on Super Tuesday is if Edwards miraculously snatches 2nd place in SC from her.  Even then, it's a longshot, but at least there'd be a chance that the media would take up a "Is Clinton doing something wrong?" meme, which could damage her somewhat.  Still a longshot though.

[exopolitician]

I'm starting to think that the only way he can hope to be remotely competitive on Super Tuesday is if Edwards miraculously snatches 2nd place in SC from her.  Even then, it's a longshot, but at least there'd be a chance that the media would take up a "Is Clinton doing something wrong?" meme, which could damage her somewhat.  Still a longshot though.

In a new poll, Edwards is catching up to Clinton who has 25% to Edwards 21%...so it could be possible he could steal 2nd place. Apparently alot of undecided voters have swung their support towards Edwards as of lately.

[Eraserhead]

I can see no way of him getting the nomination unless he wins Florida.

Florida is going to get very little coverage either way. No delegates are at stake and nobody has campaigned there.

[exopolitician]

Clinton wrote an appeal to the DNC  today [or yesterday at somepoint] to reinstate Florida's and Michigans delegates....hmm i wonder wrry?

[Хahar 🤔]

No, he's getting absolutely raped among the demographics one needs in order to win the Democratic Nomination.

Horrible pun.

[Ogre Mage]

I can see no way of him getting the nomination unless he wins Florida.

Obama has no chance of winning Florida.

[Bacon King]

He's got a 15-20% chance.

I can see no way of him getting the nomination unless he wins Florida.

Because, of course, its zero delegates are entirely relevant.

[Reignman]

If Hillary got 3rd in SC it would definitely have a big impact, but I don't see that happening. Edwards just isn't competitive any more.