official SC Democratic results thread

[MarkWarner08]

Obama's SC manager was Steve Hildebrand. He's the same man who delivered the GOTV effort in Shannon County that gave Tim Johnson his 524 vote win. This guy is really good.

[Beet]

Congrats to Obama. This is an impressive win and after all the mudslinging it's not surprise that he was able to emphasize the positives. I really hope Hillary will run a campaign more focused on the positives in the next week.

[MarkWarner08]

Congrats to Obama. This is an impressive win and after all the mudslinging it's not surprise that he was able to emphasize the positives. I really hope Hillary will run a campaign more focused on the positives in the next week.

If more Hillary supporters were as gracious and magnanimous as you, I'd be more inclined to support your candidate in the general. I wish you'd talk to those Clinton folks on MYDD and Hillaryis44 who insist on tearing down Obama and Edwards.

[Torie]

Obama's SC manager was Steve Hildebrand. He's the same man who delivered the GOTV effort in Shannon County that gave Tim Johnson his 524 vote win. This guy is really good.

One thing I admire about Hildebrand is that he just said no to handing out walking around money - a first on the Dem side in SC.

[Alcon]

One thing I admire about Hildebrand is that he just said no to handing out walking around money - a first on the Dem side in SC.

Walking-around money?

[Torie]

One thing I admire about Hildebrand is that he just said no to handing out walking around money - a first on the Dem side in SC.

Walking-around money?

That is what it is called. You purchase the black preachers with consulting contracts, and hire their folks to get out the vote. Clinton paid one preacher $165,000 in "consulting" fees who has a church in Columbia with 11,000 members.  It was all laid out in a WSJ article. Hilbebrand just said no, and thus the article. It was another "change" in a "change" election.

[Verily]

Isn't it kind of sad that the Democrats had much higher vote totals in South Carolina?

Yes. Republicans can't even win turnout in their core states. Pathetic.

Especially when the Republican race was decided by 3 points while the Democratic race was a 28-point blowout.

[Tender Branson]

Nice win by Obama.

Will they now buy a Super Bowl ad to make inroads into NY, MA, CA and AZ ?

[Smash255]

Isn't it kind of sad that the Democrats had much higher vote totals in South Carolina?

Yes. Republicans can't even win turnout in their core states. Pathetic.

Especially when the Republican race was decided by 3 points while the Democratic race was a 28-point blowout.

basically 29, (28.92)

[Verily]

Nice win by Obama.

Will they now buy a Super Bowl ad to make inroads into NY, MA, CA and AZ ?

I think it would be a really, really effective way to spend $3 million. Others here seem to disagree (though a lot of people seem convinced that Paul will do it).

One key point is that it should be funny as well as powerful. The hallmark of Super Bowl commercials is that they are funny. Obama has shown that he can pull off funny (the "dance test" comment), but I'm not sure he could pull it off when it's staged.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Congrats to Obama. This is an impressive win and after all the mudslinging it's not surprise that he was able to emphasize the positives. I really hope Hillary will run a campaign more focused on the positives in the next week.

If more Hillary supporters were as gracious and magnanimous as you, I'd be more inclined to support your candidate in the general. I wish you'd talk to those Clinton folks on MYDD and Hillaryis44 who insist on tearing down Obama and Edwards.

There's Clinton people on MyDD? Weird.

[Cubby]

Nice win by Obama.

Will they now buy a Super Bowl ad to make inroads into NY, MA, CA and AZ ?

I think it would be a really, really effective way to spend $3 million. Others here seem to disagree (though a lot of people seem convinced that Paul will do it).

One key point is that it should be funny as well as powerful. The hallmark of Super Bowl commercials is that they are funny. Obama has shown that he can pull off funny (the "dance test" comment), but I'm not sure he could pull it off when it's staged.

Fox has decided to not allow any political ads during the Super Bowl this year. The article says that too much ad space has already been bought, not enough remains to provide equal time to all candidates.

http://www.tvweek.com/news/2008/01/fox_wont_sell_super_bowl_ads_t.php

[Lief 🗽]

Congrats to Obama. This is an impressive win and after all the mudslinging it's not surprise that he was able to emphasize the positives. I really hope Hillary will run a campaign more focused on the positives in the next week.

If more Hillary supporters were as gracious and magnanimous as you, I'd be more inclined to support your candidate in the general. I wish you'd talk to those Clinton folks on MYDD and Hillaryis44 who insist on tearing down Obama and Edwards.

There's Clinton people on MyDD? Weird.

MyDD has quite a vocal Clinton contingent. They're in the minority, but they're by far the loudest of the three candidate's supporters.

[Ben.]

Isn't it kind of sad that the Democrats had much higher vote totals in South Carolina?

Yes. Republicans can't even win turnout in their core states. Pathetic.

Especially when the Republican race was decided by 3 points while the Democratic race was a 28-point blowout.

basically 29, (28.92)

Cant we just settle for a nice round 30 points... heck whats in 1%!?

[Aizen]

It really is cool Obama was able to win white voters under 30. Perhaps the South isn't that hopeless after all.

[Eraserhead]

Congrats to Obama. This is an impressive win and after all the mudslinging it's not surprise that he was able to emphasize the positives. I really hope Hillary will run a campaign more focused on the positives in the next week.

If more Hillary supporters were as gracious and magnanimous as you, I'd be more inclined to support your candidate in the general. I wish you'd talk to those Clinton folks on MYDD and Hillaryis44 who insist on tearing down Obama and Edwards.

There's Clinton people on MyDD? Weird.

They have overrun the site. When was the last time you were there?

[Gabu]

Here's a random thought from the South Carolina CNN exit poll: 4% of people who said that Obama is the most qualified to be Commander-in-Chief voted for Clinton.

Pretty well the only complaint I've heard leveled against Obama in favor of Clinton is that he isn't qualified to be Commander-in-Chief.  So what person would respond that he's the most qualified and then vote for Clinton?

I'm honestly wondering; this isn't meant as a snarky jab.

[Gustaf]

Here's a random thought from the South Carolina CNN exit poll: 4% of people who said that Obama is the most qualified to be Commander-in-Chief voted for Clinton.

Pretty well the only complaint I've heard leveled against Obama in favor of Clinton is that he isn't qualified to be Commander-in-Chief.  So what person would respond that he's the most qualified and then vote for Clinton?

I'm honestly wondering; this isn't meant as a snarky jab.

Well...there are always some weirdos trying to mess up the poll result...if the percentage who said Obama is most qualified is low to begin with maybe it's like 1 or 2 random guys trying to be funny?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Update of the two electorates thing:

Black: Obama 78%, Whites 21%
White: Whites 76%, Obama 24%

Basically a mirror image. How depressing.

Btw, I think this is the first state in which Obama did better with the poorest voters than the richest ones. O/c that's inevitable bearing in mind the above (and note which county Clinton won!) but mildly interesting anyhow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Btw, the SC Republican primary was (according to the exit poll) only 2% black. As opposed to 55% in the Democratic primary.

I know it's obvious, but isn't the extent of racial polarisation in the Deep South a little depressing sometimes?

[Gabu]

Well...there are always some weirdos trying to mess up the poll result...if the percentage who said Obama is most qualified is low to begin with maybe it's like 1 or 2 random guys trying to be funny?

Yeah, that's true, the fact that people told a poll worker something does not mean that it's actually the case.

Still, if it is true, perhaps 4% of people actually think that Clinton is the most likable candidate in the race?  And if so, I'd like to know what drugs these people are taking.

Or, I suppose, you could have the group who are voting for Clinton purely because they want a female president...

[John Dibble]

Here's a random thought from the South Carolina CNN exit poll: 4% of people who said that Obama is the most qualified to be Commander-in-Chief voted for Clinton.

Pretty well the only complaint I've heard leveled against Obama in favor of Clinton is that he isn't qualified to be Commander-in-Chief.  So what person would respond that he's the most qualified and then vote for Clinton?

I'm honestly wondering; this isn't meant as a snarky jab.

Perhaps something like women who want a woman president and feel that Clinton would still do a good job even if Obama would do a better one - just a possibility. Also there may be people who think Obama just couldn't win the general while Clinton could.

[NHPolitico]

Here's a random thought from the South Carolina CNN exit poll: 4% of people who said that Obama is the most qualified to be Commander-in-Chief voted for Clinton.

Pretty well the only complaint I've heard leveled against Obama in favor of Clinton is that he isn't qualified to be Commander-in-Chief.  So what person would respond that he's the most qualified and then vote for Clinton?

I'm honestly wondering; this isn't meant as a snarky jab.

Well, they could be more conservative than Obama and feel Hillary is more in line with their views or any of the other reasons people choose Hillary over Obama or Edwards over Obama.

[Forsyth]

Looking at the racial composition numbers by precinct, then examining the primary results, there was a lot of variation in the results among white voters.  Urban/rural, which is probably a proxy for income, was the driving influence. 

In Charleston County Obama won all the precincts which are 99%+ white, some with a majority.  These are all affluent areas, some very affluent.

Obama/Clinton/Edwards:

Sullivan's Island - 54%/30%/15%
Kiawah Island - 54%/30%/15%
Isle of Palms - 39%/35%/25%
Seabrook Island - 48%/36%/16%
Mt. Pleasant 16 - 46%/33%/20%
Mt. Pleasant 25 - 46%/29%/26%
St. Andrews 5 - 40%/32%/28%
Charleston 1/2 (the 'silk stocking' district) - 57%/29%/13%

As a check on the affluent white vote, I looked at virtually all-white precincts in some rural counties with little in-migration (and hence not areas of a lot of economic growth), and in none of them did Obama get even 15%:

Bay Springs (Chesterfield Co) - 4%/55%/41%
Cat Pond (Chesterfield Co) - 0%/16%/84%
Brewerton (Laurens Co) - 11%/39%/50%
Holly (Saluda Co) - 10%/55%/35%
Allens (Cherokee Co) - 8%/22%/70%
Cherokee Falls (Cherokee Co) - 12%/30%/59%
Wilkins/Metcalf (Cherokee Co) - 2%/33%/65%

He did a bit better in precincts in rural-ish parts of growing counties in the Upstate:

Gramling (Spartanburg Co) - 16%/34%/50%
Gowensville (Greenville Co) - 16%/40%/43%
Skyland (Greenville Co) - 19%/30%/51%
Tigerville (Greenville Co) - 19%/36%/45%

The picture in urban precincts in Greenville and Spartanburg counties mirror those in Charleston, with Obama winning:

Greenville 18 - 42%/24%/33%
Greenville 23 - 47%/26%/27%
Pine Street Elementary (Spartanburg Co) - 42%/30%/26%
 
I'll take a look at the results in Columbia and other areas, but I would bet the trends are the same. 

Here's where the race by precinct numbers are located:

http://www.scvotes.org/statistics/by_counties_and_precincts

[TheGlobalizer]

Nice analysis, Forsyth.