AZ PrimD: Rocky Mountian: Clinton's AZ Lead Now only at 6% as Obama Gains

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

New Poll: Arizona President by Rocky Mountian on 2008-01-24

Summary:

Clinton:	38%
Obama:	32%
Edwards:	16%
Other:	4%
Undecided:	10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Democratic Presidential Primary – Arizona (Includes early voters)

All Democrats Most likely to vote

Firm

Might

Change Total Firm

Might

Change Total

Clinton 24% 13% 37% 24% 14% 38%

Obama 16 11 27 17 15 32

Edwards 8 7 15 6 10 16

Kucinich 1 1 2 2 1 3

Gravel 1 0 1 1 0 1

No preference yet 18 10

[Adlai Stevenson]

Is the effect of the Napolitano effect?  I suppose Obama's presence in next-door Nevada might have helped him a bit.  I really hope he could pull off a win here, or anywhere!  But I am aware that at the moment this poll is an outlier not reflected in other results. 

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Is the effect of the Napolitano effect?  I suppose Obama's presence in next-door Nevada might have helped him a bit.  I really hope he could pull off a win here, or anywhere!  But I am aware that at the moment this poll is an outlier not reflected in other results. 

Small sample too.

[Eraserhead]

As the kids say "WOOT!''

Obama has been advertising here. It looks like it's working.

[Flying Dog]

As the kids say "WOOT!''

Obama has been advertising here. It looks like it's working.

Yes, It generally seems in states where Obama spends money he does well.

[Aizen]

Interesting. Colorado, should, in theory be closer than Arizona.

[ottermax]

Doesn't Arizona have a smaller percentage of Hispanics than other SW states? That would seem to help Obama.

[Aizen]

Colorado and Utah both have less hispanics than Arizona. Not sure about New Mexico though


Colorado also has more "latte liberals" than Arizona. That's why CO *should* be closer than AZ. But I'm biased, so what do I know?

[Flying Dog]

Doesn't Arizona have a smaller percentage of Hispanics than other SW states? That would seem to help Obama.

Yeah, but it has more old people.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If true, Obama must be making inroads with Hispanics.

[Alcon]

I'm inclined to think this is an outlier - demographically speaking, Arizona is a terrible state for Obama.

[ottermax]

Doesn't Arizona have a smaller percentage of Hispanics than other SW states? That would seem to help Obama.

Yeah, but it has more old people.

That sort of cancels out the less Hispanic factor.

Colorado and Utah both have less hispanics than Arizona. Not sure about New Mexico though


Colorado also has more "latte liberals" than Arizona. That's why CO *should* be closer than AZ. But I'm biased, so what do I know?

I know New Mexico has more Hispanics; they are a minority-majority state unlike Arizona. Utah doesn't really count as part of the Southwest, Texas is closer in demographics than Utah. The Colorado argument makes sense. It is similar to voters in Washington.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Arizona has a higher percentage of Hispanics than any other state except Texas, New Mexico and California. But their turnout is awful. According to the CNN 2004 exit poll, Hispanics must've turned out at a rate half that of whites to get those numbers.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Doesn't Arizona have a smaller percentage of Hispanics than other SW states? That would seem to help Obama.

Yeah, but it has more old people.

That sort of cancels out the less Hispanic factor.

Colorado and Utah both have less hispanics than Arizona. Not sure about New Mexico though


Colorado also has more "latte liberals" than Arizona. That's why CO *should* be closer than AZ. But I'm biased, so what do I know?

I know New Mexico has more Hispanics; they are a minority-majority state unlike Arizona. Utah doesn't really count as part of the Southwest, Texas is closer in demographics than Utah. The Colorado argument makes sense. It is similar to voters in Washington.
[/quote

I've always thought Obama could win Washington - maybe Oregon as well.