2008 Pollster Report Card

[Tender Branson]

So far, ABC News is the best pollster (but they polled only IA), according to this report card by SurveyUSA:



Chart

From those who polled more races, Research2000 was best, followed by Zogby, Strategic Vision and Mason-Dixon. ARG is at the bottom ...

[Verily]

Research 2000 is... a surprise.

[Person Man]

Rasmussen...they are a bit favorable to the right and it does show up...Zogby's a real shoker and I see what people mean about LA Times.

[Speed of Sound]

Pollsters worse than ARG? I dont even want to think about it!

[jacob_101]

Pollsters worse than ARG? I dont even want to think about it!

Wow ARG right behind Gallup.  There goes Gallup's credibility! 

I am surprised by Fox News.  I thought they had a shi**y polling company.

[Mr. Morden]

Their entire analysis is idiotic, because they don't take into account the timing of the polls, and in this race, things tend to change rapidly in the final days leading up to each primary.  For example, they say the LA Times was off by 20 points for NH/GOP.  But their last poll of NH was nearly two weeks before the primary.  A lot changed in those last two weeks, including New Hampshirites absorbing the results of Iowa.  So obviously pollsters who kept polling in the final days are going to be closer.

They also omit NV/GOP (where everyone was way off), and incorrectly say that Research 2000 was only off by 2 in NV/Dem, when they were actually off by about 8.

[Tender Branson]

In the new report card incl. Super Tuesday and among active pollsters (those who polled more than 4 races), SurveyUSA is now best:

[big bad fab]

Ah !

It looks better now: ARG and Zogby to the bottom,
Survey USA and Gallup up.

A disappointment for Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon.

[Mr. Morden]

Again though, the methodology of these rankings makes no sense.  Mason-Dixon is basically being penalized for having fewer polls in the final days before each primary.