I participated in the election prediction contest at
http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/ . I did pretty badly. I was WAY too optimistic for the SDLP (I predicted a net gain of 2, when the real result was a net loss of 6), which I hoped would do well. I think I was one seat off in 13 constituencies and only completely correct in 5. Besides my way off predictions on the distribution of nationalist seats, I didn't do that badly. I was one under for each of the main unionist parties and for Independents (the Independent win was a big surprise), one over for the Women's Coalition and a net two over for the nationalists.
Even though I didn't do well, it was fun to participate. Northern Ireland's election system for Assembly elections is very interesting.
I wonder if the SDLP can recover from this poor showing. At this point, it seems like there Westminster seat in Newry and Armagh seems in serious jeapardy. I'm not sure about the other seats.
Sincerely,
Kevin Lamoreau
