CA-SUSA: Clinton +11, McCain +12
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  CA-SUSA: Clinton +11, McCain +12
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Author Topic: CA-SUSA: Clinton +11, McCain +12  (Read 713 times)
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Miamiu1027
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« on: January 28, 2008, 09:39:04 PM »

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7417510e-b5e4-4e94-a6f2-fd6e70635255

Clinton 49
Obama 38
Edwards 9


McCain 37
Romney 25
Huckabee 14
Giuliani 12
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2008, 09:43:44 PM »

looks like amazing news for Obama upon closer review, or just a bad poll...

it has 29% (!) of the likely Democratic electorate as Hispanic...  I know the population is accelerating and so on, but that seems so damn high.  the racial composition in the poll is 48% white, 29% Hispanic, 14% Asian, and 9% black.

I'll dig up the 2004 exit poll and see what the demographic breakdown looked like then.

and BTW Obama only loses whites by 2%.  and if the CA Primary is majority-minority, I'll eat my hat.

maybe only southern whites hate Obama.
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BRTD
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« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2008, 09:44:40 PM »


Duh. Iowa whites don't.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2008, 09:45:01 PM »

It looks like Edwards people may be drifting slowly over to Obama.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2008, 09:48:45 PM »

in 2004 the racial breakdown in CA was white 68%, hispanic 16%, black 8%, Asian 4%, other 5%.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2008, 09:50:35 PM »

in 2004 the racial breakdown in CA was white 68%, hispanic 16%, black 8%, Asian 4%, other 5%.

Was the CA primary even contested in 2004?  Not a good comparison...
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2008, 09:54:03 PM »

in 2004 the racial breakdown in CA was white 68%, hispanic 16%, black 8%, Asian 4%, other 5%.

Was the CA primary even contested in 2004? 

yes
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Verily
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« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2008, 09:57:57 PM »
« Edited: January 28, 2008, 10:04:05 PM by Verily »

it has 29% (!) of the likely Democratic electorate as Hispanic...  I know the population is accelerating and so on, but that seems so damn high.  the racial composition in the poll is 48% white, 29% Hispanic, 14% Asian, and 9% black.

Actually, California as a whole is 35% Hispanic. Around 5-10% of that consists of illegal immigrants, however, and Hispanics are bad at turning out, but that Hispanics lean towards the Democrats cancels that out somewhat. I would guess the Democratic primary electorate will be about 20% Hispanic.

The poll also seems to overestimate Asians and possibly underestimate blacks (who are only 6% of the population but overwhelmingly Democrats and probably more motivated to vote than usual). Still, these demographic issues aren't huge, at least not enough to make a big difference in terms of results.

Edit: I see it was 16% in 2004. Not sure what to make of that, given different circumstances in terms of how important the election was.

Edit2: California was on Super Tuesday in 2004 as well. Kerry had the nomination wrapped up by then, but Super Tuesday still got a fair bit of press.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2008, 10:02:48 PM »

in 2004 the racial breakdown in CA was white 68%, hispanic 16%, black 8%, Asian 4%, other 5%.

Was the CA primary even contested in 2004?  Not a good comparison...
It was a Super Tuesday state, so John Edwards was still in the race.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #9 on: January 28, 2008, 10:18:47 PM »

in 2004 the racial breakdown in CA was white 68%, hispanic 16%, black 8%, Asian 4%, other 5%.

Was the CA primary even contested in 2004?  Not a good comparison...
It was a Super Tuesday state, so John Edwards was still in the race.

A little bit of contest doesn't describe what it's going to get this year.
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Verily
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« Reply #10 on: January 28, 2008, 10:26:17 PM »
« Edited: January 28, 2008, 10:32:33 PM by Verily »

Here's the white vote trend:



Clearly, Obama has secured a great deal of former Edwards supporters, but that doesn't fully account for his rise. It appears that undecided white voters have been breaking heavily for Obama in the last few polls in addition to a significant Edwards decline and a slight Clinton decline.
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J. J.
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« Reply #11 on: January 28, 2008, 10:33:20 PM »

Here's the white vote trend:



Clearly, Obama has secured a great deal of former Edwards supporters, but that doesn't fully account for his rise. It appears that undecided white voters have been breaking heavily for Obama in the last few polls in addition to a significant Edwards decline and a slight Clinton decline.

Those are the best numbers that I've seen for Obana since this became a Race race.

Obama will need to break 30% of the white vote to get the nomination.
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Flying Dog
Jtfdem
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« Reply #12 on: January 28, 2008, 10:59:48 PM »

Here's the white vote trend:



Clearly, Obama has secured a great deal of former Edwards supporters, but that doesn't fully account for his rise. It appears that undecided white voters have been breaking heavily for Obama in the last few polls in addition to a significant Edwards decline and a slight Clinton decline.

Those are the best numbers that I've seen for Obana since this became a Race race.

Obama will need to break 30% of the white vote to get the nomination.

He will, except in maybe the south.
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