Two Guesses
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #325 on: August 31, 2012, 07:50:56 AM »

Why are Republicans campaigning on deficits then? Its probably just a ploy but none of the less, the political environment and shifts within it are more complicated than they appear.
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J. J.
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« Reply #326 on: September 01, 2012, 12:44:15 AM »

Why are Republicans campaigning on deficits then? Its probably just a ploy but none of the less, the political environment and shifts within it are more complicated than they appear.

Because, they are not supply siders.  This is a difference in policy, even complex economic policy.

Supply siders are not necessarily opposed to big government, or big government deficits.  They may oppose some regulations, as a hidden tax.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #327 on: September 05, 2012, 10:09:21 AM »

So, you think this could be a shift in spending?
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J. J.
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« Reply #328 on: September 09, 2012, 01:43:50 PM »

So, you think this could be a shift in spending?

Yes, and that would be big.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #329 on: September 09, 2012, 04:27:20 PM »

Would this mean more foreign policy isolationism and perhaps a return to the Gold Standard? Perhaps an end to the war on drugs?
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J. J.
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« Reply #330 on: September 09, 2012, 05:56:17 PM »

Would this mean more foreign policy isolationism and perhaps a return to the Gold Standard? Perhaps an end to the war on drugs?

Probably not.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #331 on: September 09, 2012, 07:12:52 PM »

How would we finance government if there is a substantial decrease in spending? Could there be an increase turn to the private sector?
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J. J.
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« Reply #332 on: September 09, 2012, 09:36:33 PM »

How would we finance government if there is a substantial decrease in spending? Could there be an increase turn to the private sector?

First, you do have revenue enhancement, which might involve removing deductions.  Second, budget cuts.  Third, restructuring taxes to reward activities that create jobs, and taxable income.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #333 on: September 12, 2012, 12:23:42 AM »

So, tax levels would be the same, but spending would be greatly reduced? Perhaps in the short run, this will lead to looser credit (because whose going to take out a mortgage when there is no inflation?), but when that dries up and the market forces pushing down interest rates become less and less relevant as the market begins to distort under the growing cartel power of the banks, we will probably see 2007-2008 all over again on a bigger scale.
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J. J.
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« Reply #334 on: September 12, 2012, 08:19:17 AM »

So, tax levels would be the same, but spending would be greatly reduced? Perhaps in the short run, this will lead to looser credit (because whose going to take out a mortgage when there is no inflation?), but when that dries up and the market forces pushing down interest rates become less and less relevant as the market begins to distort under the growing cartel power of the banks, we will probably see 2007-2008 all over again on a bigger scale.

People who want to buy houses.  That would increase housing prices.

I also would not worry about "cartel power."
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #335 on: September 12, 2012, 09:03:46 AM »

Will they lower interest rates then or will demand prop it up? If the latter, then there might be another debt crisis.
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J. J.
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« Reply #336 on: September 12, 2012, 09:19:46 AM »

Will they lower interest rates then or will demand prop it up? If the latter, then there might be another debt crisis.

Well, interest rates won't make a huge difference if the actual value of the property declines.  That has been the problem.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #337 on: September 12, 2012, 05:50:19 PM »

and how will reduced spending prop up underwater home owners?
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J. J.
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« Reply #338 on: September 19, 2012, 01:15:03 AM »

and how will reduced spending prop up underwater home owners?

Because those homes won't stay underwater.  It would make more money available and increase investment.

We could see a different approach to economic problems.
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J. J.
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« Reply #339 on: September 26, 2012, 10:32:19 PM »

So J.J. Any comments on the potential coalitions I see forming?

One thing I have seen is a de-emphasis on the religious right in the GOP.  A Mormon and a Catholic are not Evangelicals, or even mainline Protestants.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #340 on: September 27, 2012, 09:21:13 AM »
« Edited: September 27, 2012, 09:24:51 AM by Mutthole Surfers »

and how will reduced spending prop up underwater home owners?

Because those homes won't stay underwater.  It would make more money available and increase investment.

We could see a different approach to economic problems.

So, how will decreased spending cause reinflation?  Unless lower spending somehow automatically raises speculation and then we could be heading into a new economic system which requires a higher degree of sophistication at the individual level.
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J. J.
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« Reply #341 on: September 27, 2012, 10:13:08 AM »

and how will reduced spending prop up underwater home owners?

Because those homes won't stay underwater.  It would make more money available and increase investment.

We could see a different approach to economic problems.

So, how will decreased spending cause reinflation?  Unless lower spending somehow automatically raises speculation and then we could be heading into a new economic system which requires a higher degree of sophistication at the individual level.

Lower government spending would ease the crowding out of funds for private investment.  That really is not the point of the last post, however.
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Person Man
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« Reply #342 on: September 27, 2012, 11:41:53 AM »

I thought only taxes and price control redirect funds and create deadweight losses.

But I could definitely see lower inflation making it easier to get a loan, but it would make loans harder to pay off.

What could be some new programs from this approach?

and it does seem a little less likely now that this alignment is coming true.
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Frodo
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« Reply #343 on: September 27, 2012, 05:28:53 PM »

So, J.J., now that it looks as President Obama will win re-election with Democrats retaining the Senate and Republicans retaining the House, how does this fit into your realignment predictions?
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J. J.
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« Reply #344 on: September 27, 2012, 08:52:43 PM »

So, J.J., now that it looks as President Obama will win re-election with Democrats retaining the Senate and Republicans retaining the House, how does this fit into your realignment predictions?

I think it is way too early to say that for either.  We could see a Romney victory amd it not be a realignment.
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Person Man
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« Reply #345 on: September 27, 2012, 10:41:40 PM »

So, it would make it even less likely than a Romney victory. Albeit, they are both still possible.
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J. J.
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« Reply #346 on: September 27, 2012, 10:56:28 PM »
« Edited: September 27, 2012, 11:06:54 PM by J. J. »

So, it would make it even less likely than a Romney victory. Albeit, they are both still possible.

An Obama victory would not be an indication of a realignment.  A Romney victory of 338 to 200 EV would also not indicate a realignment.  These things tend to be big.
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Person Man
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« Reply #347 on: September 28, 2012, 07:44:23 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2012, 07:46:39 PM by Mutthole Surfers »

Basically, it will have to be something, such that, in this hyperpartisan environment, and with the Democrats not being able to fall back on the South or the House or some other redoubt in times of weakness, would at least somewhat challenge their relevance/justification. (where many Democrats start reregistering as Republicans because they see a higher CB trying to nominate and therefore elect a Moderate Republican than trying to get any Democrat elected..just as many do already in places where the Democratic Party is already irrelevant).
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J. J.
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« Reply #348 on: October 02, 2012, 10:50:58 PM »

Basically, it will have to be something, such that, in this hyperpartisan environment, and with the Democrats not being able to fall back on the South or the House or some other redoubt in times of weakness, would at least somewhat challenge their relevance/justification. (where many Democrats start reregistering as Republicans because they see a higher CB trying to nominate and therefore elect a Moderate Republican than trying to get any Democrat elected..just as many do already in places where the Democratic Party is already irrelevant).

I'm not sure what you are saying in this post.

I think you would have to see both houses going Republican and Romney winning with 378 EV's to constitute a realignment.  Alternately, maybe a 10 point popular vote lead might indicate it as well.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #349 on: October 06, 2012, 10:20:36 AM »

I think there is one important point that you may have overlooked in this analysis, regarding the Reagan realignment.  Southern Democrats are a complicated breed, but there is a general consensus that conservatives won a majority in the House in 1980 and then lost it in 1982.  That didn't make Reagan's reforms any less influential.
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