Two Guesses

[Sam Spade]

Reasonable.  I would agree that the parties have not become stronger, rather the country has become more polarized, and that polarization has fallen along party lines, not necessarily strengthening the parties (or something like that).

When are you going to know for sure, so I can plan ahead.

[Sam Spade]

...such as...

I was hungry and ate the pigeon before I got all the details.

It's too early to tell, but it is possible.

So, just "big government" in general....with the uncertainities being on social issues. Heck, social issues might not change at all... just economic ones.

AW, I listed a series of "might be" options.  You asked about one.  I'm saying, watch for major changes.  I can see something coming, but I don't know what.

Sounds reasonable. But if the country pushes further right, would that count as a realignment?

Countries don't necessarily just move in a left-right fashion.  The country may move right in some areas and left in some others, with consensus being reached on certain issues at the same time.  Complicated stuff.

[Sam Spade]

Uh, Indiana just does that from time to time.  Please pick another state for your comparison.

[Sam Spade]

You could see two situations:

1.  Obama wins and is the next Jimmy Carter, only worse.  Within 5 years of today there is Christian conservative Congress abnd President.

2.  McCain win and the evangelicals in the party are diminished.

The more this election cycle goes on, the more I'm starting to see option #1.  Though not necessarily a "Christian conservative" Congress/President, but a sharp trend towards social authoritarianism and stronger economic controls being dicated by government.  You could kind of see it start after 9/11, frankly.

[Sam Spade]

You could see two situations:

1.  Obama wins and is the next Jimmy Carter, only worse.  Within 5 years of today there is Christian conservative Congress abnd President.

2.  McCain win and the evangelicals in the party are diminished.

The more this election cycle goes on, the more I'm starting to see option #1.  Though not necessarily a "Christian conservative" Congress/President, but a sharp trend towards social authoritarianism and stronger economic controls being dicated by government.  You could kind of see it start after 9/11, frankly.

I could see a more libertarian bent.

I don't mean to make this sound "braggadocio", but that's probably impossible. 

I've always had an excellent feel for the pulse of the country at-large and a pulse for places that I live in.  If I'm saying something is more likely than not to be occurring, it probably is.

I've made mistakes before, specifically about Hillary Clinton, but if the *caucus process* had not existed, something which I admittedly don't get, my prediction would have been accurate.

The only thing that makes me pause before being anywhere near 100% behind the prediction above is the concern that the longer the undecideds stay undecided, the more likely they are to break to the white candidate.  Or at least, that's what has happened historically, and those still undecided seem to fit the pattern of this type of voter more than not.

But whatever, even if McCain gets elected, this is probably where we're headed.

[Sam Spade]

The only thing that makes me pause before being anywhere near 100% behind the prediction above is the concern that the longer the undecideds stay undecided, the more likely they are to break to the white candidate.  Or at least, that's what has happened historically, and those still undecided seem to fit the pattern of this type of voter more than not.

But whatever, even if McCain gets elected, this is probably where we're headed.

You make an assumption, if McCain is elected, a Republican will be elected in 2012.  I'm not too sure about that.

I never made that assumption.  In fact, I thought my statement implied the opposite.  But the result in terms the trend towards authoritarianism and stronger control will be the same.

[Sam Spade]

You could see two situations:

1.  Obama wins and is the next Jimmy Carter, only worse.  Within 5 years of today there is Christian conservative Congress abnd President.

2.  McCain win and the evangelicals in the party are diminished.

The more this election cycle goes on, the more I'm starting to see option #1.  Though not necessarily a "Christian conservative" Congress/President, but a sharp trend towards social authoritarianism and stronger economic controls being dicated by government.  You could kind of see it start after 9/11, frankly.

This post, made the second day of the "crisis" still nails it.

Though, really, there are three options for the Obama presidency...

[Sam Spade]

You may well be right JJ, as I've said for over a year now.

That being said, this does not mean that an Obama realignment is out of the cards completely; rather, its likelihood has diminished substantially.

[Sam Spade]

This is the thread for this observation...

You know, since I started revisiting my long-term cyclical analysis in late 2008 (with the stock markets' action), I must say that it has consistently pointed to one of two outcomes to occur fairly soon (probably within the next ten/fifteen years or so):

1) Democrats' power falls below that of 1994 and Republicans' power eclipses 2002. (I consider 1994 to be the modern nadir of the Democratic party, and 2002 the modern height of the Republican party).
2) Democrats' power falls below that of 1994, Republicans' power falls below the 1974 level and some new 3rd party arises, which will eventually take the place of the Republican party.

The first option does align with a lot of what you've posted here. FWIW (which may be nil).