Two Guesses

[Frodo]

Wasn't there also a period of transition before each realignment?  Though 1984 may have been the election marking a realignment in which conservatism became a dominant philosophy and socio-political force, it can be argued that the preceding sixteen years from 1968 to 1984 was a period of transition as the old New Deal coalition disintegrated and liberalism became discredited. 

Similarly, 2008 could be serving the same negative role that 1968 did, marking the beginning of the end of the Reagan coalition and the discrediting of conservatism as a political philosophy, and the beginning of another period of transition before another political philosophy (whatever it may be, and whatever it may be called) arises as the dominant socio-political force in this country. 

[Frodo]

The two ideas you gave us seems to me, at least, that there are two real possibilities-

- A new progressive era of class politics and victorian culture

I sincerely doubt THAT is ever going to happen. 

[Frodo]

So, J.J., now that it looks as President Obama will win re-election with Democrats retaining the Senate and Republicans retaining the House, how does this fit into your realignment predictions?

[Frodo]

So, J.J., now that it looks as President Obama will win re-election with Democrats retaining the Senate and Republicans retaining the House, how does this fit into your realignment predictions?

I think it is way too early to say that for either.  We could see a Romney victory amd it not be a realignment.

How about now? 

[Frodo]

So, J.J., now that it looks as President Obama will win re-election with Democrats retaining the Senate and Republicans retaining the House, how does this fit into your realignment predictions?

I think it is way too early to say that for either.  We could see a Romney victory amd it not be a realignment.

How about now? 

Today, I'd guess a Romney victory but no realignment.  Long term bad news for Republicans. 

Allow me to repeat the question -with President Obama now having won a second term, as well as a status quo in Congress, how does that fit into your particular realignment theory?

[Frodo]

2.  There were no coattails. 

The Democrats won every competitive Senate race plus a big upset in North Dakota.

As well as making gains in state legislatures outside the South.