Two Guesses

[Person Man]

The two ideas you gave us seems to me, at least, that there are two real possibilities-

- A new progressive era of class politics and victorian culture

-A return to the Great Society era of the 50s and 60s

[Person Man]

What is being hinted at when "authoritarian culture" is spoken of?

[Person Man]

...such as...

[Person Man]

...such as...

I was hungry and ate the pigeon before I got all the details.

It's too early to tell, but it is possible.

So, just "big government" in general....with the uncertainities being on social issues. Heck, social issues might not change at all... just economic ones.

[Person Man]

...such as...

I was hungry and ate the pigeon before I got all the details.

It's too early to tell, but it is possible.

So, just "big government" in general....with the uncertainities being on social issues. Heck, social issues might not change at all... just economic ones.

AW, I listed a series of "might be" options.  You asked about one.  I'm saying, watch for major changes.  I can see something coming, but I don't know what.

Sounds reasonable. But if the country pushes further right, would that count as a realignment?

[Person Man]

...such as...

I was hungry and ate the pigeon before I got all the details.

It's too early to tell, but it is possible.

So, just "big government" in general....with the uncertainities being on social issues. Heck, social issues might not change at all... just economic ones.

AW, I listed a series of "might be" options.  You asked about one.  I'm saying, watch for major changes.  I can see something coming, but I don't know what.

Sounds reasonable. But if the country pushes further right, would that count as a realignment?

Countries don't necessarily just move in a left-right fashion.  The country may move right in some areas and left in some others, with consensus being reached on certain issues at the same time.  Complicated stuff.

Well then.... What do you see personally? You can just defer to J.J. on this....eating his sacrifices....shameful.

Do we even know what to look for?

For example, 2008 could be this country's new progressive emergence in the dems win or the final triumph of militarism/neo-conservatism with the final election of John McCain. Basically, the entire 2002-2008 realignment could just be towards expansionism.

[Person Man]

In general, a re-alignment produces changes in:

1.  Electoral behavior (who votes for whom).
You mean the change of voting blocs?
2.  Electioneering tactics (how a campaign is run). 
You mean whether you push to or from the center?
3.  Candidate recruitment (who runs).
You mean how moderate and radical the candidates are?
4.  Elite coalition behavior (who sides with whom).
You mean what comprises the main parties?
5.  Formulation of public policy (after the election, what difference does it make).
You mean the actual changes in the law?
Now, I would argue that there were changes in all of these after the 1978-84 realignment.

How these changes will work after the next re-alignment, I don't know.

Even in 1984, I did not expect everything that we saw in the post 1984 political world.

[Person Man]

In general, a re-alignment produces changes in:

1.  Electoral behavior (who votes for whom).
You mean the change of voting blocs?
2.  Electioneering tactics (how a campaign is run). 
You mean whether you push to or from the center?
3.  Candidate recruitment (who runs).
You mean how moderate and radical the candidates are?
4.  Elite coalition behavior (who sides with whom).
You mean what comprises the main parties?
5.  Formulation of public policy (after the election, what difference does it make).
You mean the actual changes in the law?
Now, I would argue that there were changes in all of these after the 1978-84 realignment.

How these changes will work after the next re-alignment, I don't know.

Even in 1984, I did not expect everything that we saw in the post 1984 political world.

1.  Yes.

2.  No.

3.  No.

4.  No.

5.  Somewhat, but also in terms of policy.

could you elaborate,then?

[Person Man]

I would be completely fine with a political reallingment of some sort. I think these past 30 years or so have done much to hurt and weaken America, its time we enact some real reforms and stop thinking about the present and instead focus on the future.

Well, JJ seems to be predicting even more of the right wing policies that have hurt and weakened america (or to be more precisely the vast majority of americans) over the last 30 years... not less.

I think it is true that the nonsense ideologies of the right, such as individual responsibility and the Horatio Alger myth, remain just as embedded in the upcoming generations.  On the 'social' side I'm not quite so sure that the hateful intolerance is increasing, but it is true that it is too optimistic to say it is going away.

One wonders, however, just how far a realignment can go against reason and evidence - most americans been getting poorer for 30 years.. will they continue to embrace the policies that made this occur for another 30?  It is possible.

Ultimately people are almost unbelievably controlled by their programming. 

Poor Opebo, the syphilis has finally affected his brain.

I've posted that I don't know what the changes will look like, only that I think there is a likelihood that there will be major changes.  Left, right, some entirely different direction, I don't know.

BTW, we no longer need Horatio Alger.  We have Oprah Winfrey and Barack Obama. 

Is a further right-wing strengthening even a realignment? Perhaps it is just continuation of the current one.

[Person Man]

V.O. Keys? Gotcha.

[Person Man]

Race and class will become less important, but economic wellbeing will be critical and religion will be a major factor. Expect a huge tug-of-war between the reliious right and the secularist left. It'll be messy.

It could be, or, conversely, we could see a reduction in the importance of moral issues.  The collapse of Huckabee could be a harbinger of that.

....yeah. That's what I am thinking. Our coming generation of voters don't really care, either way, about abortion, gays or the choice of herbs you inhale. Things could go back to class warring (some indications are very clear this will be the case, some indications show that JJ's agrued point of a classless society are coming to fruition and the fact that people LOVE voting against their economic interest on both sides). Yes, Huckabee is collapsing...the fact that there is something the matter with Mississippi AND California...leaves race and maybe source of income as the next source of culture war. 

[Person Man]

Didn't this already happen in 1988-1996?

No.

In 1988, a Republican was elected, and by 1996, there was a sea change in elite behavior and political coalitions in the parties. The New Deal coalition was finally dead below the Presidential level, and the GOP broke through in the South.

Arguably, that happened in 1978-84.

Yeah. Though, one could argue that 1988-1996 was the final death blow. What we will see here, between 2006 and say 2020 is whether the democratic party can reinvent itself or if we are heading to a Right-wing One-Party America, like antebellum America.

[Person Man]

Didn't this already happen in 1988-1996?

No.

In 1988, a Republican was elected, and by 1996, there was a sea change in elite behavior and political coalitions in the parties. The New Deal coalition was finally dead below the Presidential level, and the GOP broke through in the South.

Arguably, that happened in 1978-84.

Yeah. Though, one could argue that 1988-1996 was the final death blow. What we will see here, between 2006 and say 2020 is whether the democratic party can reinvent itself or if we are heading to a Right-wing One-Party America, like antebellum America.

No.  The Democratic party was basically out of power from 1860 until 1930  (though there were  8 20 years of a Democratic President).  Long term, there will be a two party system.

You mean the Gilded Age. Though circumstances were much different than they were today. There was a Civil War and the Dems always had a place where they could get almost uniamious support. Those sort of circumstances simply don't exist. They have been out of power 40 years since 1968, with only 12 years of a democratic president and there hasn't been a civil war to alienate themselves from the majority of the American people or an overwhelingly strong democratic base that always allows them to take half a dozen state by 3:1 in a 20 point rout on presidential election days. You are right, we will have a two-party system. Whether its democrat and republic is an entirely different issue. For exampe, 1904. The dems won like 5 or 6 states by 65% or more of the vote yet were down by 20 nationally. If that were to happen today, you would only win D.C. and the only real battle ground would be M.A....I just don't see how the Democratic Party could survive with no die-hard base through 50 years of opposition.

a 35-65 race today

a 35-65 race 90 years ago.

Federalism just won't isolate a Democratic power out of power for 50-80 years like it used to from extinction causing political futility.

[Person Man]

Didn't this already happen in 1988-1996?

No.

In 1988, a Republican was elected, and by 1996, there was a sea change in elite behavior and political coalitions in the parties. The New Deal coalition was finally dead below the Presidential level, and the GOP broke through in the South.

Arguably, that happened in 1978-84.

Yeah. Though, one could argue that 1988-1996 was the final death blow. What we will see here, between 2006 and say 2020 is whether the democratic party can reinvent itself or if we are heading to a Right-wing One-Party America, like antebellum America.

No.  The Democratic party was basically out of power from 1860 until 1930  (though there were  8 20 years of a Democratic President).  Long term, there will be a two party system.

You mean the Gilded Age. Though circumstances were much different than they were today. There was a Civil War and the Dems always had a place where they could get almost uniamious support. Those sort of circumstances simply don't exist. They have been out of power 40 years since 1968, with only 12 years of a democratic president and there hasn't been a civil war to alienate themselves from the majority of the American people or an overwhelingly strong democratic base that always allows them to take half a dozen state by 3:1 in a 20 point rout on presidential election days. You are right, we will have a two-party system. Whether its democrat and republic is an entirely different issue. For exampe, 1904. The dems won like 5 or 6 states by 65% or more of the vote yet were down by 20 nationally. If that were to happen today, you would only win D.C. and the only real battle ground would be M.A....I just don't see how the Democratic Party could survive with no die-hard base through 50 years of opposition.

a 35-65 race today

a 35-65 race 90 years ago.

Federalism just won't isolate a Democratic power out of power for 50-80 years like it used to from extinction causing political futility.

But that means that the Democrats can't run candidates that unacceptable.

I think the Republican Party of today is very different than the GOP of 1976.  I would say the same thing of the Democratic Party.  I've looked what Ted Kennedy was advocating in 1980, and it was far to the left of the current Russian government, more to the left than any UK Labor Government.

And yes, the Republican Party of 1896 was very different than the Republican Party of 1904, as was the Democratic Party.

All this means is that the Democrats can't justify themselves as a minority, regardless of the positions they advocate, though that is an interesting idea you have about parties moving. Perhaps that could
support my theory that the democratic party will become obsolete as the Republican Party can expand to quinch the thirst of change, giving the dems no platform.

[Person Man]

So, anything could happen from here on out?

[Person Man]

So IT COULD be anything.....at this point.

[Person Man]

Though a further shift to the right could be seen as simply the strengthening of the Reagan revolution, unless of course there is a more secular conservatism or a more compassionate conservatism.

[Person Man]

This is an uprising. It will be put down or it will succed.

[Person Man]

That's a great way of putting it...but our nation is so much more different than it was in 1960 and 1828. There has to be a real dawn here. I mean, what could happen with two false dawns in a row. We are still reeling from Kent State, Vietnam and the collapse of the labor movement. What else could happen? - I will ask this-


WHAT'S THE WORST THAT CAN HAPPEN?

[Person Man]

...and if things get worse, could that lead to people acting "out of the system"?  i.e. Left-Wing Militias popping up?

[Person Man]

What could be the policy changes? Although, what it could possibly leave to is mass emmigration. It wouldn't be the only time this happened. Ever heard of the "lost generation"? Well, after Bryant's and Wilson's false dawns, people just started to leave. Many Americans settled in London and Paris....and some in the Soviet Union.

[Person Man]

I know.....and it could happen again.

[Person Man]

Though, there was conservative violence in that area, too....and it only died down as a result of conservative political power.

[Person Man]

One thing I would want to talk about in this thread are the risks of catacalysms in this time of change.

By 2025,
- Will WMDs be used?
- Will there be another war?
- Will there be a reccesion?
- Will there be a depression?
- Will life-saving science be abandonned?
- Will any other potentially world-changing sciences be abandonned?
- Will there be a large disaster that is much bigger than Katrina on the United States?

Another thing to consider-

What will society be by 2080-2150?

I mean, in today's understanding of political ideas-

Will America evolve into a far-left dystopia, like "Brave New World", will we have taken a center-left track, as seen on "Star-Trek". Or will we take a center-right approach that is found in "Starship Troopers" or a far-right approach found in "A Hand Maiden's Tale".

[Person Man]

You could see two situations:

1.  Obama wins and is the next Jimmy Carter, only worse.  Within 5 years of today there is Christian conservative Congress abnd President.

Worse than Jimmy Carter? How is that possible?

You could see two situations:
2.  McCain win and the evangelicals in the party are diminished.

If anything, the Dobsonites will support primary challenges in 2010 that will further bifurcate the GOP between the economic folks (default secularists) and the evangelicals.

That's probably right.

I am also thinking that if Obama does SOMETHING different and things don't get any worse, I think we could be on the way to a more progressive country. Basically, no one knows what will happen after or before November 5, 2008. I mean, if McCain wins, that could have the same effect of a bad Obama administration- people could simply become more dissillusioned with progressive politics and there could be massive reprocussions on the Left. Maybe the democratic party will go the way of the whigs. I mean, do you see a future for the Democratic Party if their platform is discredited?