Reasonable. I would agree that the parties have not become stronger, rather the country has become more polarized, and that polarization has fallen along party lines, not necessarily strengthening the parties (or something like that).
When are you going to know for sure, so I can plan ahead.
If it's anything like like the last two, start looking at the off year elections. My theory of a re-alignment period is that it takes 6 years. In 1978, the Republicans scored some solid gains, and the newly elected Democrats elected were much more conservative. That's the first sign.
The second will be a radically different president and usually an electoral blowout. Think 1932 or 1980.
I don't disagree, but I am curious as to why 2016, as opposed to 2012. Both McCain and Clinton could fit the role as the tail end of the current cycle of politics. Both Hoover and Carter were 1-term presidents before the respective realignments.
A second hypothesis would consider your former professor's view of current reality; he didn't see a realignment while it was happening. What if Obama is the nominee and sweeps in with an unusually large electoral vote this fall? Reagan was not expected to achieve the margin he did get in 1980. And 2006 can be looked at as a significant switch in Congress. Obama certainly has the big picture rhetoric one associates with a new political alignment, though it is premature to say if he would govern in a way that matches the words.
