SUSA NY: DEM - Clinton +16, GOP - McCain +34

[Sam Spade]

DEM
Clinton 54%
Obama 38%
Other 4%
Undecided 4%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=67f1b6c9-40ea-439a-8d29-3b5a52a8d300

GOP
McCain 55%
Romney 21%
Huckabee 7%
Paul 4%
Other 8%
Undecided 5%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=67f1b6c9-40ea-439a-8d29-3b5a52a8d300

Done after Edwards/Kennedy, before debate...

[Flying Dog]

My prediction:
Clinton 56%
Obama 42%

[Erc]

Most of the CD delegates in New York are 5 delegates a piece, so basically, the winner gets 3 and the loser gets 2 (as long as nobody breaks 70%, which shouldn't happen much of anywhere in NY).

In the 6 delegate CDs, both candidates want to prevent the other from breaking 58% (at which point it becomes 4 for the winner & 2 for the loser):
8 [S Manhattan, parts of Brooklyn]
11 [Parts of Brooklyn]
14 [E Manhattan, a small part of Queens]
15 [N Manhattan, a very small part of Queens]
18 [S & Mid Westchester, excl. much of Mt. Vernon / Yonkers, plus parts of Rockland]
21 [Albany, Schenectady, etc.]

I should think he'd do well enough / win in many of these.  Though I don't know how he'd do in Brooklyn, and may not do so well in the Albany area.

There are so many At-Large delegates that there aren't too many "target percentages" of concern.

[Sam Spade]

CD 8 is Jerrold Nadler's CD - Downtown Manhattan plus Chelsea, Hell's Kitchen.  Brooklyn part includes Coney Island, Bensonhurst, Bay Ridge, Borough Park (I expect this one to be close because these are populated by non-black ethnics and Orthodox - in fact Clinton probably wins, maybe over 58%)
CD 11 - Latte liberal Brooklyn and blacks (Obama can top 58% here and probably will)

I don't know the other two quite as well.