CA PrimD: Suffolk University: Obama Leads CA by 1.2%

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

New Poll: California President by Suffolk University on 2008-02-03

Summary:

Obama:	39.8%
Clinton:	38.6%
Other:	0.1%
Undecided:	21.5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

URL: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/140-CAStatewideDem%26Ind-Frequencies.pdf



1 THERE ARE 2 ACTIVE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES FOR PRESIDENT ON YOUR BALLOT, FOR

WHOM WILL YOU VOTE, OR TOWARD WHOM WOULD YOU LEAN AT THIS TIME?

270 38.6 38.6 38.6

279 39.8 39.8 78.4

132 18.8 18.8 97.3

19 2.7 2.7 100.0

700 100.0 100.0

1 Hillary Clinton

2 Barack Obama

3 Don't Know/ Undecided

4 Refused

Total

Valid

Frequency Percent Valid Percent

Cumulative

Percent

2 HOW LIKELY ARE YOU TO CHANGE YOUR MIND ABOUT YOUR CHOICE BEFORE TUESDAY?

11 1.6 2.0 2.0

52 7.5 9.5 11.5

476 68.0 86.7 98.3

8 1.2 1.5 99.8

1 .2 .2 100.0

549 78.4 100.0

151 21.6

700 100.0

1 Very Likely

2 Somewhat Likely

3 Unlikely

4 Don't Know/ Undecided

5 Refused

Total

Valid

Missing System

Total

Frequency Percent Valid Percent

Cumulative

Percent

[Eleden]

This is good news for Obama.  Suffolk University was one of the few pollsters that came close to predicting a Clinton win in NH.  I'd say it's fairly accurate.

[Flying Dog]

Undecideds so far have broken for Obama at an average of 57-43 over clinton.

[Speed of Sound]

A broken Uni is right twice a day. This is indeed a very rare fluke.

[Verily]

This is good news for Obama.  Suffolk University was one of the few pollsters that came close to predicting a Clinton win in NH.  I'd say it's fairly accurate.

Just because Suffolk was right (or, rather, less wrong than others) once doesn't mean we should start giving it any credence.

[Lief 🗽]

California is green on the front page.

[Flying Dog]

California is green on the front page.

I know. Looks great, doesnt it?

[Gabu]

Even if Obama is ahead here, I'm still very worried about the possibility of people who voted a month ago tipping the election to Clinton if as many people have done so as poll indicate.

[Verily]

Even if Obama is ahead here, I'm still very worried about the possibility of people who voted a month ago tipping the election to Clinton if as many people have done so as poll indicate.

Well, there's no denying that around 20-25% of the voters voted early, and that they went for Clinton. But, first off, early voters are disproportionately elderly, so voting for Clinton is unsurprising. Secondly, I don't see why recent polls wouldn't be picking up people who already voted in (more or less) the proper proportions. I doubt very many people will say that they intend to vote for Obama but in fact already voted for Clinton (maybe Edwards). Finally, people who voted early surely almost all had already made up their minds; I wouldn't have voted early here in New Jersey had I not been certain who I was voting for. Therefore, early voters favoring Clinton just means that people who made up their minds months ago will favor Clinton on election day, also unsurprising.

[Eleden]

This is good news for Obama.  Suffolk University was one of the few pollsters that came close to predicting a Clinton win in NH.  I'd say it's fairly accurate.

Just because Suffolk was right (or, rather, less wrong than others) once doesn't mean we should start giving it any credence.

Just give me this moment please

[Eraserhead]

This is good news for Obama.  Suffolk University was one of the few pollsters that came close to predicting a Clinton win in NH.  I'd say it's fairly accurate.

Just because Suffolk was right (or, rather, less wrong than others) once doesn't mean we should start giving it any credence.

They screwed up the Republican side.

[Gabu]

I doubt very many people will say that they intend to vote for Obama but in fact already voted for Clinton (maybe Edwards).

Well, it's possible.  If the California vote was taken a month ago, Clinton probably would have won in a landslide.  Evidently, a lot of people's minds have been changed.

I suppose you do have a good point that those who vote early are probably liable to be those whose minds were already made up for their candidate, though, and who thus would not be in the group of those who voted for Clinton but would now vote for Obama..

[Verily]

I doubt very many people will say that they intend to vote for Obama but in fact already voted for Clinton (maybe Edwards).

Well, it's possible.  If the California vote was taken a month ago, Clinton probably would have won in a landslide.  Evidently, a lot of people's minds have been changed.

Of course. My point is that the people who voted early will not be changing their responses in the poll from their actual vote. Plenty of people who didn't vote early will be changing their responses from months ago.

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This sort of dovetails with the other point, actually.