CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton+12
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Author Topic: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton+12  (Read 1711 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: February 04, 2008, 03:14:39 PM »

Clinton: 53%
Obama: 41%

Of the 34% who have already voted early:

Clinton: 51%
Obama: 39%

Eve of CA Democratic Primary, Clinton Appears to Blunt Late Obama Charge: 24 hours till votes are counted in the California Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton appears to fend-off a late charge from Barack Obama, 53% Clinton, 41% Obama, according to SurveyUSA's 12th pre-primary tracking poll. Other pollsters show the contest closer. In SurveyUSA's last 3 tracking polls, Obama had led among men. At the wire, the two are tied. For 9 months, Clinton has led among women, at one point by 50 points. At the wire, she leads by 23. Obama leads for the first time in the San Francisco Bay Area. But Clinton dominates in greater Los Angeles, and maintains smaller leads in the Inland Empire and Central Valley. Among voters under age 50, Clinton leads by 6. Among voters 50+, Clinton leads by 21. Clinton leads by 5 among white voters, but overpowers Obama among Latinos. Obama leads 4:1 among black voters, but there are materially fewer blacks in California than Latinos. Clinton leads among Democrats. Obama leads among Independents.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5fb08a99-97a2-4e13-a586-d2ed83c3ceea
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Meeker
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« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2008, 03:17:40 PM »

Can you say outlier?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2008, 03:18:27 PM »

OH NOES!!!  The polls, the polls...

Seriously, if I had any idea what's really going on here, I'd tell you right now...
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2008, 03:19:57 PM »


Right now, every poll could be an outlier.  Or it might be dead-on.

All this stuff should drive the prediction markets nuts, which should be great fun also.
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Eleden
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« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2008, 03:20:43 PM »

Clinton: 53%
Obama: 41%

Of the 34% who have already voted early:

Clinton: 51%
Obama: 39%

Eve of CA Democratic Primary, Clinton Appears to Blunt Late Obama Charge: 24 hours till votes are counted in the California Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton appears to fend-off a late charge from Barack Obama, 53% Clinton, 41% Obama, according to SurveyUSA's 12th pre-primary tracking poll. Other pollsters show the contest closer. In SurveyUSA's last 3 tracking polls, Obama had led among men. At the wire, the two are tied. For 9 months, Clinton has led among women, at one point by 50 points. At the wire, she leads by 23. Obama leads for the first time in the San Francisco Bay Area. But Clinton dominates in greater Los Angeles, and maintains smaller leads in the Inland Empire and Central Valley. Among voters under age 50, Clinton leads by 6. Among voters 50+, Clinton leads by 21. Clinton leads by 5 among white voters, but overpowers Obama among Latinos. Obama leads 4:1 among black voters, but there are materially fewer blacks in California than Latinos. Clinton leads among Democrats. Obama leads among Independents.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5fb08a99-97a2-4e13-a586-d2ed83c3ceea

Yikes.
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Flying Dog
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« Reply #5 on: February 04, 2008, 03:23:05 PM »

Mind you, this is the same polling company that had Clinton up 57-33 over Obama in Massachusetts.
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Platypus
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« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2008, 03:25:08 PM »

*In the calm zone*

switch on jedi, peeps. Twill be ok.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #7 on: February 04, 2008, 03:25:23 PM »

Mind you, this is the same polling company that had Clinton up 57-33 over Obama in Massachusetts.

And maybe the only one to get the margin right when the emo-chicks hit the voting booth tomorrow in favor of Wailary Clinton.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #8 on: February 04, 2008, 03:26:40 PM »

So, when are you going to post the rest of the SUSA poll dump?
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Flying Dog
Jtfdem
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« Reply #9 on: February 04, 2008, 03:27:43 PM »

Mind you, this is the same polling company that had Clinton up 57-33 over Obama in Massachusetts.

And maybe the only one to get the margin right when the emo-chicks hit the voting booth tomorrow in favor of Wailary Clinton.

Silly....emo's don't vote.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #10 on: February 04, 2008, 03:33:43 PM »

SUSA is more pro-Clinton in California than ARG...

I think Obama still has the momentum.
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Gabu
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« Reply #11 on: February 04, 2008, 03:43:42 PM »

Clinton: 53%
Obama: 41%

Of the 34% who have already voted early:

Clinton: 51%
Obama: 39%

Those two numbers don't make any sense.  That would mean that there has been no motion whatsoever in California since early voting began.  Though I suppose it could be the case if Obama has gone up and went back down again.
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Hash
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« Reply #12 on: February 04, 2008, 04:06:52 PM »

Wow, did SUSA just contract the ARG disease?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #13 on: February 04, 2008, 04:12:04 PM »

Wow, did SUSA just contract the ARG disease?

I guess, until ARG releases a poll tomorrow showing Obama +5, which is, for that polling institution, quite possible...
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Eleden
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« Reply #14 on: February 04, 2008, 04:23:30 PM »

Mind you, this is the same polling company that had Clinton up 57-33 over Obama in Massachusetts.

And maybe the only one to get the margin right when the emo-chicks hit the voting booth tomorrow in favor of Wailary Clinton.

Silly....emo's don't vote.

Apparently it's too conformist. 
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Trilobyte
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« Reply #15 on: February 04, 2008, 06:16:14 PM »

Wow, did SUSA just contract the ARG disease?

Mason-Dixon also gave Clinton above-average numbers. It looks like we have a Rasmussen/Zogby vs. Mason-Dixon/SUSA conflict heading into Tuesday.
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Verily
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« Reply #16 on: February 04, 2008, 06:17:18 PM »

Wow, did SUSA just contract the ARG disease?

Mason-Dixon also gave Clinton above-average numbers. It looks like we have a Rasmussen/Zogby vs. Mason-Dixon/SUSA conflict heading into Tuesday.

What's striking about this poll is that it is the only post-Edwards poll to have a swing towards Clinton. M-D didn't have that.
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TomC
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« Reply #17 on: February 04, 2008, 06:18:14 PM »

Yeah, the EV numbers are more favorable to Obama than election day? Doesn't seem right.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #18 on: February 04, 2008, 06:18:27 PM »

Treat all recent polls as they should be treated. As sh*t. And then relax, or try to.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #19 on: February 04, 2008, 06:20:41 PM »

Wow, did SUSA just contract the ARG disease?

Mason-Dixon also gave Clinton above-average numbers. It looks like we have a Rasmussen/Zogby vs. Mason-Dixon/SUSA conflict heading into Tuesday.

Rasmussen/Zogby must be right, since Mason-Dixon/SUSA agree with ARG:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/cadem8-704.html
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jfern
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« Reply #20 on: February 04, 2008, 06:23:57 PM »

Zogby has Obama up 6 points. The polls have gone haywire. Well, the polls were in agreement in NH, and we know what happened there. At least this time we don't have the illusion that all of the polls will be accurate.
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