Who will win their home state by the biggest margin?
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Poll
Question: Who will win their home state by the biggest margin?
#1
Clinton in New York		  
#2
Obama in Illinois		  
#3
McCain in Arizona		  
#4
Romney in Massachusetts		  
#5
Huckabee in Arkansas		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 42

Author Topic: Who will win their home state by the biggest margin?  (Read 1739 times)
Joe Republic
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« on: February 01, 2008, 04:52:20 PM »
« edited: February 01, 2008, 05:00:11 PM by Enrico Pallazzo »
Out of the five candidates listed above, which one will score the largest margin of victory in their home state on Super Tuesday?


N.B.  I've excluded Ron Paul and Mike Gravel, who haven't a hope of winning their own states.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2008, 04:54:11 PM »
Obama, in a walk
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Grumpier Than Uncle Joe
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« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2008, 04:55:00 PM »
McCain
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TomC
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« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2008, 04:55:25 PM »
One of the Republicans since Obama and Mrs. C have demographics they can win in any state. I'll go with McCain.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #4 on: February 01, 2008, 04:58:09 PM »
I should have specified:  this is for the Super Tuesday primaries ONLY; not the general election.
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Verily
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« Reply #5 on: February 01, 2008, 04:58:38 PM »
Obama, easily.

Clinton will not win New York by more than 20 points, probably less. McCain has trouble with the Mormon population in Arizona as well as the anti-immigration crowd. Romney will have difficulty maintaining himself in Massachusetts. Huckabee has the same problem in Arkansas. Obama has polled the best in his home state of all of them.
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Erc
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« Reply #6 on: February 01, 2008, 04:59:31 PM »
Huckabee, though Obama has the advantage of a two-way race.
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Grumpier Than Uncle Joe
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« Reply #7 on: February 01, 2008, 05:01:32 PM »

Until it can be proven dead people have stopped voting in Chicago, I wouldn't put my neck on the chopping block and guarantee it.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #8 on: February 01, 2008, 07:24:28 PM »
I agree with TCash. If it was a question of highest vote percentage it'd be different though. I doubt it will be either McCain or Romney though. So I'm guessing Huckabee. Romney and McCain are gonna split the non-Huckabee vote in Arkansas to some extent and being a two-term Governor of the state I'm guessing his credentials in it are better than most of the other candidates' home state credentials.
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Erc
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« Reply #9 on: February 01, 2008, 07:26:17 PM »
Quote from: GM3PRP on February 01, 2008, 05:01:32 PM

Until it can be proven dead people have stopped voting in Chicago, I wouldn't put my neck on the chopping block and guarantee it.

And the dead Chicago vote is solidly in Obama's camp, so the worry is?
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Grumpier Than Uncle Joe
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« Reply #10 on: February 01, 2008, 07:29:13 PM »
Quote from: Erc on February 01, 2008, 07:26:17 PM
Quote from: GM3PRP on February 01, 2008, 05:01:32 PM

Until it can be proven dead people have stopped voting in Chicago, I wouldn't put my neck on the chopping block and guarantee it.

And the dead Chicago vote is solidly in Obama's camp, so the worry is?

Oh I'm not worried, I think he'll take IL, but not in a walk.  I'm not as good at gaming dead people so I'll trust ya.  Wink
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #11 on: February 01, 2008, 07:31:52 PM »
ARG sez oBaMA leeddss bye onleE tEn lolz
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #12 on: February 01, 2008, 07:58:05 PM »
Obama
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AndrewTX
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« Reply #13 on: February 01, 2008, 09:49:23 PM »
I'm gonna go with Obama for the Dems, and McCain for the Republicans.

 Overall, Obama will win VERY easily.
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shua
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« Reply #14 on: February 01, 2008, 10:25:13 PM »
I voted Obama, but I was thinking total percent rather than margin. Huckabee will get the widest margin. 
Percantage: Obama (65), Clinton, Huckabee, Romney, McCain (50).
Margin: Huckabee (25), McCain, Obama, Romney, Clinton (10).
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Verily
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« Reply #15 on: February 01, 2008, 10:26:32 PM »
Quote from: shua on February 01, 2008, 10:25:13 PM
I voted Obama, but I was thinking total percent rather than margin. Huckabee will get the widest margin. 
Percantage: Obama (65), Clinton, Huckabee, Romney, McCain (50).
Margin: Huckabee (25), McCain, Obama, Romney, Clinton (10).

Err... If Obama wins 65% of the vote, he has at least a 30-point margin.
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Smash255
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« Reply #16 on: February 01, 2008, 10:28:24 PM »
Quote from: Verily on February 01, 2008, 10:26:32 PM
Quote from: shua on February 01, 2008, 10:25:13 PM
I voted Obama, but I was thinking total percent rather than margin. Huckabee will get the widest margin. 
Percantage: Obama (65), Clinton, Huckabee, Romney, McCain (50).
Margin: Huckabee (25), McCain, Obama, Romney, Clinton (10).

Err... If Obama wins 65% of the vote, he has at least a 30-point margin.

beat me to it
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GPORTER
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« Reply #17 on: February 01, 2008, 11:06:26 PM »
McCain.
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Robespierre's Jaw
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« Reply #18 on: February 01, 2008, 11:12:42 PM »
Barack Obama shall carry Illinois by the biggest margin. I would expect Obama to win anywhere between 60 to 65 percent. Hillary would be up their too, but I doubt she'd be able to win New York with 67 percent in the General, like in her last Senate race against the lackluster GOP candidate John Spencer.
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ottermax
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« Reply #19 on: February 01, 2008, 11:14:34 PM »
If we counted Utah as a Romney home state, then he would win this. I think it will be Obama, hopefully there will be no Bradley effect!
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #20 on: February 01, 2008, 11:37:54 PM »
My quick, two-cent guess would be Romney in MA.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #21 on: February 07, 2008, 10:42:21 AM »
The results:

1. Huckabee's margin in Arkansas: 41.81%
2. Obama in Illinois: 31.45%
3. McCain in Arizona: 18.50%
4. Clinton in New York: 17.48%
5. Romney in Massachusetts: 10.29%

Congrats to the 3 people (out of 42) who predicted correctly!
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