official Super Tuesday commentary thread (Republican)

[Sam Spade]

Rumor on the convention floor is that the McCain supporters are going to switch to Huckabee in order to prevent Romney from winning.

People really, really hate him apparently.

I wonder where Paul's supporters will go?

The fact that no one likes Romney is the shock of all time, in my book.  Wow.

[Sam Spade]

I wonder where Paul's supporters will go?

Home.  :-P

That was my suspicion.

Apparently the only reason the WV GOP held a convention was to get out of debt, which they have succeeded at.

Al Widdershins should be good for a joke about this one...

[Sam Spade]

A Huckabee win = A McCain win

[Sam Spade]

From Drudge:

The board of elections failed to deliver voting equipment to polling places ALL OVER LOS ANGELES... Developing...

Sounds like the Villagorosa machine at work again...

[Sam Spade]

From Drudge:

The board of elections failed to deliver voting equipment to polling places ALL OVER LOS ANGELES... Developing...

Sounds like the Villagorosa machine at work again...

What does this mean for the election in California? Will balloting be extended? (I would imagine so; this sounds like obvious grounds for a court injunction.)

I don't really know.  I'm just spreading Drudge rumors, which may or may not have any basis in anything.

[Sam Spade]

Woohoo!  I hate Huckabee, but at least it keeps the race in play.  No coronation of McCain yet.

This was a McCain victory because it was his supporters who gravitated over to Huckabee to prevent a Romney win.

Strategically, yes.  To the unsophisticated observer, McCain finished 3rd, and Huckabee is emboldened.  Most Americans are unsophisticated observers.

While to the sophisticated observer, McCain still finished 3rd, but Huckabee wasn't emboldened at all, since he lost to Romney in what should really be one of his most natural states.

Maybe it looks better for Huck since Romney essentially tried to buy the convention.

[Sam Spade]

Who's ahead in Georgia right now as of the latest polls?

It will be close.

[Sam Spade]

Romney is now complaining about losing WV.  He couldn't just lose gracefully.

Id be kinda pissed too if someone were to do that to me what McCain did to him. Though it doesnt matter anyways, thats politics for ya.

They also got Paul supporters over as well so I guess nobody likes him.

And I'm happy, Romney doesn't need to win anything.

They got Paul supporters too? Good lawd its a total disownment of Romney today. How sad...

Shows that the Paul supporters have some brains, definitely.

[Sam Spade]

The Georgia exit poll is so close, either 3 could win frankly.

[Sam Spade]

According to the exit poll:

Huckabee 31.48%
Romney 31.04%
McCain 30.48%

That is what we call too close to call...

[Sam Spade]

The South bias against Mormons is comparable to the MA/NJ bias against Obama.  You won't see it in the exit polling, but it's there.

[Sam Spade]

McCain will win MO, watch.

[Sam Spade]

One would think Mitt would run very well in Orange County, my county, but in absentees Mitt is losing rather similar San Diego County by 44-27. That is just a slaughter. Something is odd. The polls might have really blown it in Calif. McCain will sweep the Bay area. He is ahead in absentee in Silicon Vallley  (Santa Clara) 51-21. I do expect Mitt to do much better with today voters, but still, no poll showed these kinds of numbers with already voted voters.

The exit polls have screwed up a number of states today - this is probably another.

[Sam Spade]

This race is over.

[Sam Spade]

Regardless of whether Romney gets 3 delegates or 30 delegates from California, the game is over.  I really wonder how the polls could have been so wrong here, more than other places.

[Sam Spade]

Umm... Mitt Romney would currently get 0 delegates in California

Has someone checked on the Congressional level? CNN saying that McCain won Los Angeles county doesn't count as checking its 15 or so districts.

Yes. there was the link in that post to results by CD. At the moment I checked (20 min ago), McCain was leading in all but two districts - in those two there wasn't any reporting.

I only see Romney winning in CD21

CD21 is Fresno, CA - interestingly the home of Free Republic....  lol

[Sam Spade]

Romney is now leading in the 21st District - barely. He also isn't terribly far behind in maybe 5-8 others.

So, current California Delegate Count:

McCain: 167
Romney: 3

Victory?

Actually, Romney is also ahead by a semi-decent margin in CD 52. In two more CD's McCain is ahead by a whisker w/ over 10% left to report. Zillions of CD's where the margins are smallish, but don't look smallish enough to be overturned.  On current numbers it's 164:6, but it could go all the way to 158:12. No matter how you slice it, California is in McCain's bag.

This is false.

Both Zogby and Rasmussen have confirmed that robot will win California.

You hate Mormons.

How badly were Zogby and Rasmussen off?

Rasmussen - Obama +1, McCain/Romney Tie
Zogby (lol) - Obama +13, Romney +7

Zogby's California result may be one of the funniest polls ever.