official Super Tuesday commentary thread (Republican)

[Gustaf]

None of this gets McCain off his game much if these numbers are true.  The big items on the negative side for McCain are 1) winner take all Missouri is tight, and 2) McCain might not get the 30 winner take all delegates from Georgia, and 3) winner take all Arizona is vaguely in play.

On the other side on the coin, it does not look like the Mitt surge in California is panning out (McCain was up 6% among absentees in the Surveyusa poll), and so if this holds, McCain looks good to go for two thirds to three quarters of the California delegates.

I agree. This would be a worse than expected result for McCain but still not enough to derail him. Could this be the voters who went from Huckabee to Romney in order to stop McCain going back again affected by the WV win? Because the Southern polls look similar to what we saw in polls a week or so back.

[Gustaf]

There is no basis for the claim that HUckabee voters prefer Romney to McCain. In fact, all the evidence points the other way.

Shouldn't the early returns be good for Huckabee? And isn't it a bad sign for him that it so far isn't`?

[Gustaf]

McCain is still up. Humph.

Gap went down to 3% though and still less than 1% in unfortunatly. I really hope it can hold up though.

The double-digit gap to Romney is what matters...

[Gustaf]

So far, it seems like McCain is doing about expected while ROmney is doing worse and Huckabee better. Unless things really turn around for Romney he's seriously done. Not even California is gonna do it unless he can win a couple of those South-Midwest states.

[Gustaf]

What's happening here is Huckabee overperforming significantly. To the extent that anyone is underperforming, it's Romney.

[Gustaf]

The South has a bias against aristocracies. Ours died out in the Civil War.

Are you referring to Massachusetts? 

M is originally from Texas so I'm guessing that.

[Gustaf]

Romney's party sounds like a Nazi rally with the "We haven't" chants.

He did that last speech too.

Anyone who thinks Huckabee is the populist and Romney the smart economist in the race should listen to that and think again.

[Gustaf]

Romney gets 90% in Utah

It sort of makes him look bad, ya know what I mean?

What on earth do you mean?  The good voters of Utah had no reason to support Romney so overwhelmingly other than his executive record and proven business experience.

lol