Exit Polls Hits & Misses

[gmo]

For the GOP close races (MO, GA, TN) seemed to fall pretty close to the exits.  The Dem race was more interesting looking potentially competitive more places and was simpler being only 2 horses.

For quick #s I just took the M/F %s to get totals for each candidate.  MA, NJ, AZ, AR all look to have gone to Clinton by roughly 10% more than the exit polls, while NY, CT, DE, MO were all really close.  CA looks awful for Obama early, but the exit polls (by my simple calculation) suggest 6-7%.  Plus he should win NM.  Will he pull back to close in CA or will it be like some of those other states and be more like 15% in the end?  Will he win NM?  I ain't staying up all night.

Anyhoo, opinions?  Could CA (or anywhere else) by a wider margin be missing early voting?  Personally, despite the perhaps eye-catching Clinton wins beating the exit polls I do not see anything too meaningful in the misses.  I am thinking just noise and imperfection as is the nature of polling.  Then why start the thread?    Well, does anyone think anything significant about any of the exit poll inaccuracies?

[Sam Spade]

The new CA exit poll has the margin at Clinton +13.3%, FYI.

I haven't checked the GOP one, but it was terrible also.

With NM, the question is always - how many dead voters will vote?

[gmo]

The new CA exit poll has the margin at Clinton +13.3%, FYI.

Dang, you are right.  I had not checked lately.  Perhaps interesting the later numbers, at least the ones I noticed, tended to push toward Clinton.  Obama youngsters voting at 7am before homeroom class and older voters for Clinton stopping in at 3pm right before dinner?

[Sam Spade]

The new CA exit poll has the margin at Clinton +13.3%, FYI.

Dang, you are right.  I had not checked lately.  Perhaps interesting the later numbers, at least the ones I noticed, tended to push toward Clinton.  Obama youngsters voting at 7am before homeroom class and older voters for Clinton stopping in at 3pm right before dinner?

More likely - their sample was screwy.  The GOP numbers were way off too.

[MarkWarner08]

The new CA exit poll has the margin at Clinton +13.3%, FYI.

I haven't checked the GOP one, but it was terrible also.

With NM, the question is always - how many dead voters will vote?

Random question:  Sam Spade, do you think electoral chicanery contributed to Gore's 2000 NM win?

[Sam Spade]

The new CA exit poll has the margin at Clinton +13.3%, FYI.

I haven't checked the GOP one, but it was terrible also.

With NM, the question is always - how many dead voters will vote?

Random question:  Sam Spade, do you think electoral chicanery contributed to Gore's 2000 NM win?

I don't know, but considering NM's history, I would not place money against it.