Will Huckabee or Romney win any more states? And when will they drop out?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 03:21:04 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2008 Elections
  Will Huckabee or Romney win any more states? And when will they drop out?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Will Huckabee or Romney win any more states? And when will they drop out?  (Read 1209 times)
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: February 06, 2008, 04:15:02 PM »

Barring death or a major scandal erupting, McCain has a lock on the GOP nomination at this point.

So predict: How much longer will Huckabee and Romney go before dropping out?  And will they win any more states?
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2008, 04:19:25 PM »

I think they will, actually. Huckabee won't drop out unless Romney does.
Logged
cannonia
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 960
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.42, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2008, 04:20:38 PM »

I'll just predict that Romney will drop out before Huckabee.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2008, 04:24:05 PM »

Feb 9th:
Kansas Caucus: Romney? He seems to do well in caucus states and western states...
Louisiana: Huckabee

Feb 12th:
DC: No clue.
Maryland: McCain?
Virginia: McCain

Feb 19th:
Washington: McCain
Wisconsin: McCain

Feb 24th:
Puerto Rico Caucus: McCain?

March 4th:
Ohio: McCain
Rhode Island: McCain
Vermont: McCain
Texas: McCain

So, he either wins in the days after the Potomac Primary or Mini-Super Tuesday.
Logged
MODU
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,024
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2008, 04:24:51 PM »

I'm sure they are both good for at least one more victory.  Romney, however, cannot sell the case that a vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain, since those two are battling heavily against each other in many states.  Therefore, I believe he'll drop out by the beginning of March when it becomes mathematically impossible for him to win the nomination out-right.
Logged
Jake
dubya2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2008, 04:28:58 PM »

Romney in Kansas.

Huckabee in Louisiana; Mississippi is likely too. Texas if Romney drops out.

At current levels of competitiveness, North Carolina, Idaho, Nebraska, West Virginia, and Kentucky would be possible for one of the two, but they're all in May.
Logged
M
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,491


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2008, 04:30:48 PM »


Nope.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 06, 2008, 04:49:23 PM »

My guess right now is that they're both just waiting things out a few days to see how things shake out.  If neither of them wins any of the caucuses or primaries within the next week, they'll drop out.  I can't see them going through an entire month or more of "Why is the person still running?" stories in the media.  It'll be like with Edwards: they'll fool is into thinking that they're in for the long haul, and then suddenly drop out.
Logged
big bad fab
filliatre
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,344
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2008, 04:29:55 AM »

Feb 9th:
Kansas Caucus: Romney? He seems to do well in caucus states and western states...
Louisiana: Huckabee

Feb 12th:
DC: No clue.
Maryland: McCain?
Virginia: McCain

Feb 19th:
Washington: McCain
Wisconsin: McCain

Feb 24th:
Puerto Rico Caucus: McCain?

March 4th:
Ohio: McCain
Rhode Island: McCain
Vermont: McCain
Texas: McCain

So, he either wins in the days after the Potomac Primary or Mini-Super Tuesday.

I agree, except that
- Huck will win Kansas ("modest" Rep from the plains, as in Iowa and rural Missouri; not a state like Wyoming, Montana or of course Colorado)
- McCain will pick Maryland and DC
- but Romney can still win in Rhode Island (look at the map of Massachusets and you will guess why McCain has won in Connecticut and why he'll lose R.I.).

So Romney will drop out (if he hasn't done that tomorrow....) after having been defeated in Virginia or after defeated in Texas.

Huckabee will wait after Mississipi (March 10th) or will go on until the end without campaigning just in order to be in force ahead of the convention.
Logged
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2008, 06:05:56 AM »

Would Huckabee have a shot at Texas if he spent the entirety of this month campaigning there?
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,021


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -3.13

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2008, 11:14:20 AM »

I think huckabee could take Texas and definitely Mississippi. I'm hoping Romney will bow out tomorrow.
Logged
AndrewTX
AndrewCT
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,091


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2008, 11:24:27 AM »



I agree, except that
- Huck will win Kansas ("modest" Rep from the plains, as in Iowa and rural Missouri; not a state like Wyoming, Montana or of course Colorado)
- McCain will pick Maryland and DC
- but Romney can still win in Rhode Island (look at the map of Massachusets and you will guess why McCain has won in Connecticut and why he'll lose R.I.).

So Romney will drop out (if he hasn't done that tomorrow....) after having been defeated in Virginia or after defeated in Texas.

Huckabee will wait after Mississipi (March 10th) or will go on until the end without campaigning just in order to be in force ahead of the convention.


I looked, and I failed to see how ROmney can still win Rhode Island.
Logged
Reignman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,236


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -3.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: February 07, 2008, 02:13:07 PM »

Now that Romney's out, I think Huckabee can win at least a few more states, enough to surpass Romney in the delegate vote. By staying in for a while, he makes becoming veep all the more likely.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2008, 02:17:34 PM »

Huckabee will never get enough delegates to force a brokered convention, which is what he'd need in order to get the VP slot.  Honestly, I don't see Huckabee staying in the race much longer either.  Maybe until Saturday, to see if he wins LA, or Tuesday, to see if he wins VA.  But he'll probably lose both, and then drop out.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,714
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2008, 02:18:51 PM »

McCain's an idiot if he picks Huckabee. The only thing he brings is he would help heal the rift with the religious right a bit, but McCain's been nothing but pandering on that for the last 4 years. And for every such voter he'd turn off at least two moderates/independents.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: February 07, 2008, 02:25:08 PM »

Yeah, I agree.  Huck would be a disaster as a running mate.  That's why, as I said, it would only happen if there's a brokered convention, and McCain needs Huckabee delegates in order to get the nomination.  But since a brokered convention won't happen, Huck as McCain's running mate won't happen either.
Logged
MODU
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,024
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: February 07, 2008, 02:51:52 PM »

I'm sure they are both good for at least one more victory.  Romney, however, cannot sell the case that a vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain, since those two are battling heavily against each other in many states.  Therefore, I believe he'll drop out by the beginning of March when it becomes mathematically impossible for him to win the nomination out-right.

Does 2/7/2008 count as the beginning of March?  Smiley
Logged
M
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,491


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: February 07, 2008, 03:11:04 PM »

McCain's an idiot if he picks Huckabee. The only thing he brings is he would help heal the rift with the religious right a bit, but McCain's been nothing but pandering on that for the last 4 years. And for every such voter he'd turn off at least two moderates/independents.

McCain doesn't so much have a problem with the religious right. To the extent that someone did, it was Giuliani. Trust me, the Reverends Limbaugh, Ingraham and Hannity represent a different faith entirely.
Logged
big bad fab
filliatre
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,344
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: February 08, 2008, 06:30:57 AM »

I agree.
Huck gathers social conservatives.
Romney only succeeded in gathering business and fiscal conservatives.
McCain gathered military conservatives.
But nobody gathered arch-conservatives.... Gingrich would have done it, maybe.

So, let's forget about those guys.

Now, I'm wondering when the Huck will drop out.
Does he just want to have more delegates than Romney ? (remember Romney has only suspended his campaign: he keeps all his already gained delegates ahead of the convention)

If he stays too long in the race, without gathering all the conservatives (and he can't gather business and fiscal conservatives), he can harm himself by being sidelined or by becoming more extreme.

So, either he'll drop out after a defeat in Virginia (which would mean he's irrelevant); or he'll wait until Mississipi, with the hope of a win or a tie in Texas, and wins in Louisiana, Kansas, Mississipi and maybe Wisconsin.

But that's risky, since he's not sure to pick many delegates (only Virginia, Vermont and DC are winner-take-all. So, Virginia is key for him.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.044 seconds with 14 queries.