Where Does Obama Have The Best Chance, Texas, Ohio, Or Pennsylvania?

[Lincoln Republican]

Of the three big states that Clinton is seriously banking on, Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, where she is making a major stand, in which of these states does Obama have the best chance of pulling off an upset?

Please discuss.

[Flying Dog]

Hillary-Ohio

Obama-Texas.

[Chipmunk]

Based on a completely unrepresentative sample of my friends, Obama is doing very well among college students in Ohio.  Everyone I know who cares about politics seems to be leaning towards Obama.  Especially young females, which hasn't been his best demographic in the past.


 If he can motivate us to get out and vote,  he should pull off a Buckeye victory.

[Padfoot]

Obama's best chance is probably in Texas just because of the convoluted primary-caucus hybrid process there.  Hillary will probably try to make her major stand in Ohio because of the governor's endorsement and the large number of blue collar workers.

[Jake]

Based on a completely unrepresentative sample of my friends, Obama is doing very well among college students in Ohio.  Everyone I know who cares about politics seems to be leaning towards Obama.  Especially young females, which hasn't been his best demographic in the past.

If he can motivate us to get out and vote,  he should pull off a Buckeye victory.

He's won college students everywhere. Not winning them would newsworthy.

And student turnout can't come near turning around the margins Clinton will win out of the Ohio Valley and Cleveland.

But yeah, Texas definitely.

[minionofmidas]

Texas.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Texas, obviously.

[exopolitician]

Obama - Tejas

Clinton - Pennsylvania

[J. J.]

Texas, in terms of delegates.

In January, I thought the race would be over by Super Tuesday.  Today, I expect the race to over sometime after the PR Primary.  I expect the lead in elected delegates excluding MI/FL to change hands at least once by the convention.  I could see Clinton holding for a few weeks and Obama gaining it back. 

[Person Man]

Texas.

Texas will go 52-47
Ohio will go 55-43
 
HillDawg will need to break 60 in PA to stay in this and it might not happen.

[Verily]

Texas.

Texas will go 52-47
Ohio will go 55-43
 
HillDawg will need to break 60 in PA to stay in this and it might not happen.

If those were the actual results, she'd need more like 70% in PA to win the nomination, which obviously is not happening.

[Rococo4]

Texas

[Stranger in a strange land]

Texas, no doubt

[Person Man]

Texas.

Texas will go 52-47
Ohio will go 55-43
 
HillDawg will need to break 60 in PA to stay in this and it might not happen.

If those were the actual results, she'd need more like 70% in PA to win the nomination, which obviously is not happening.

After tonight, Hillary is kaput.

[agcatter]

After last night, he wins all three.  Pennsylvania should be her best state because it is a closed primary with no independents voting but by then everyone will be scrambling to get on board with the obvious winner to be.

Hillary is RIP.  Bye Bye Hill.

[Sam Spade]

It was Texas three weeks ago - it's Texas now...

[elcorazon]

obama will win all 3.

[The Hack Hater]

obama will win all 3.

Maybe so, if his momentum keeps building.

[© tweed]

does Hillary drop out if Obama sweeps March 4?

[Хahar 🤔]

Texas

[Padfoot]

does Hillary drop out if Obama sweeps March 4?

Yes, there will be no conceivable way for her to win unless she manages to get the superdelegates to revolt against Obama.  And I doubt they would as there would be immense pressure from party leaders for her to drop out if Obama were to defeat her so handily.

[Erc]

Texas, in terms of delegates.

In January, I thought the race would be over by Super Tuesday.  Today, I expect the race to over sometime after the PR Primary.  I expect the lead in elected delegates excluding MI/FL to change hands at least once by the convention.  I could see Clinton holding for a few weeks and Obama gaining it back. 

Obama's got something like a 162 lead in elected delegates at the moment.

Unless Clinton wins 59% of the delegates in March, April, and May, she does not take the lead in pledged delegates.  And considering the existence of states where Obama will win (Democrats Abroad, Wyoming, Mississippi, Oregon), that means that Clinton would have to pull off 60% consistently in TX/OH/PA & the May states.  That isn't going to happen.  (Hillary's best result so far, apart from Arkansas, is her 57% in NY.  She won't be outperforming that number consistently).

[GPORTER]

Texas.

Clinton is not done.

[Flying Dog]

Texas
Ohio
Pennsylvania