Can anyone explain what a Hillary victory in Virginia would look like?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Because I'm just not seeing it.

-Obama wins NOVA if current patterns hold.
-He also wins metro Richmond. Richmond proper is a no-brainer and if current patterns hold he'll win places like Henrico county too.
-Obama also wins most of Hampton Roads. Hillary will win the white vote in places like Newport News but I really doubt that'll be enough.

Hillary will win places like Lynchburg and Norfolk and that "southern West Virginia" tier of counties and most of upstate outside of the DC metro (though if you count Fredericksburg she'll probably win that), but how much population do those areas have? And how much are they losing? I don't see how you can get enough votes from the rest of the state to cancel out the above three listed areas especially in a Democratic primary considering how solidly Republican most of those areas are (except the southern West Virginia place but even that's low on population. Plus Obama's endorsed by Boucher so he might not do THAT bad there.)

[Sam Spade]

Kinda like Hillary as the Republican and Obama as the Democrat, I suspect.  But that's a great generalization.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kinda like Hillary as the Republican and Obama as the Democrat, I suspect.  But that's a great generalization.

Obama would win the Republican NOVA counties, suburban Richmond and the wealthy parts of Hampton Roads.

[J. J.]

The independents vote for McCain.  Hillary gets the conservative Democratic vote (which is still there).  VA also seems to have a number of Latinos and Asians (9% overall, vs. 19% African American).  The remaining 70% are Caucasian.

It's possible for a VA win for Clinton.  Primary, correct?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The independents vote for McCain.

Why? That race is over.

[Sam Spade]

It's possible for a VA win for Clinton.  Primary, correct?

Yes.  I didn't know the Latino/Asian vote was quite that high there, but I remember the sub-20 black thingy and the number of white Moderate Dems.  Need to recalibrate what I'm thinking.

[bullmoose88]

The independents vote for McCain.

Why? That race is over.

With Romney out, and no one to split the conservative vote...i'm not sure that it is.

[Flying Dog]

The media is practically anointing McCain right now.

[J. J.]

The independents vote for McCain.

Why? That race is over.

Ah, they like him.  Not every voter votes strategically.  And, there is still Huckabee.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I still can't quite get my head around Virginia. Time to play around with numbers.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Obama does very well in NOVA, while Hillary wins the areas that are more rural.  Basically, it looks a lot like 2004, except Hillary wins where Bush did, and Obama wins where Kerry did.

[Flying Dog]

Obama does very well in NOVA, while Hillary wins the areas that are more rural.  Basically, it looks a lot like 2004, except Hillary wins where Bush did, and Obama wins where Kerry did.

Obama wins then, no?

[J. J.]

Obama does very well in NOVA, while Hillary wins the areas that are more rural.  Basically, it looks a lot like 2004, except Hillary wins where Bush did, and Obama wins where Kerry did.

Obama wins then, no?

Possibly not.

[exopolitician]

Obama does very well in NOVA, while Hillary wins the areas that are more rural.  Basically, it looks a lot like 2004, except Hillary wins where Bush did, and Obama wins where Kerry did.

Obama wins then, no?

Bush WON Virginia in 2004...so no. But I think Obama has a big chance here....I mean hes released enough ads to make his name be heard across the state. Richmond is an Obama stronghold, alot of universities [Ron Paul will prob do kinda well here too] and a high black population.

[Sam Spade]

Maryland should be easy to figure.  Hillary has a certain base of support, but Obama's base is simply larger (blacks and upper-income types).  Won't be a blowout, but a solid, fairly large win, nonetheless.

Ya, Virginia - I'm going to have to think about it as well.

[Flying Dog]

Obama does very well in NOVA, while Hillary wins the areas that are more rural.  Basically, it looks a lot like 2004, except Hillary wins where Bush did, and Obama wins where Kerry did.

Obama wins then, no?

Bush WON Virginia in 2004...so no. But I think Obama has a big chance here....I mean hes released enough ads to make his name be heard across the state. Richmond is an Obama stronghold, alot of universities [Ron Paul will prob do kinda well here too] and a high black population.

Well, I assumed that there are way more democrats in Richmond and NOVA than in the area's that Bush won.

[exopolitician]

Obama does very well in NOVA, while Hillary wins the areas that are more rural.  Basically, it looks a lot like 2004, except Hillary wins where Bush did, and Obama wins where Kerry did.

Obama wins then, no?

Bush WON Virginia in 2004...so no. But I think Obama has a big chance here....I mean hes released enough ads to make his name be heard across the state. Richmond is an Obama stronghold, alot of universities [Ron Paul will prob do kinda well here too] and a high black population.

Well, I assumed that there are way more democrats in Richmond and NOVA than in the area's that Bush won.

I think Bush won Richmond and the counties surrounding as well. Id have to look at the 2004 map.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He lost Richmond (of course), but won its suburbs.

[exopolitician]

Interesting read:

http://tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=280357a1-02a8-4168-b000-ad83d7f2475c

read it gogogogo!

[WalterMitty]

win big with rural whites in southwest and west central va.  hope for a big turnout in the coalfields.

win big with suburban women.

may not be enough to win, but she can be very competitive.

[exopolitician]

win big with rural whites in southwest and west central va.  hope for a big turnout in the coalfields.

win big with suburban women.

may not be enough to win, but she can be very competitive.

Rural whites in the southwest and west central VA favored Edwards in 2004, dunno if that would have changed in the last eight years. Obama has been doing better with Edwards supporters, but I dunno. Virginia might be a nailbiter.

[WalterMitty]

im looking at the 2001 governor's race map for virginia.

i know im comparing apples and oranges, but i think hillary could win all of those warner counties (excluding the ones in southeast va and montgomery and albermarle counties)

[exopolitician]

im looking at the 2001 governor's race map for virginia.

i know im comparing apples and oranges, but i think hillary could win all of those warner counties (excluding the ones in southeast va and montgomery and albermarle counties)

They are both going to campaign hard here, they will both be in Richmond saturday for that dinner [figures I wont be here]. Theres an article I read that Clinton can benefit from counties in the north [where she visited Arlington today] and Obama may benefit from cities around Williamsburg and Charlottesville. Sadly ive only been here a couple months so I dont know much about statewide demographics.

Plus, Im sure Kaine [a popular Governor] will be campaigning with Obama feverishly. Hes got alot riding on this in his political future being one of the first to Endorse him and all. Warner hasnt endorsed yet though, so with him it could go either way.

[WalterMitty]

hillary also needs to hit this guy.  who cares if keith olbermann whines about it?  hit him and keep hitting.  ive noticed obama isnt good at fighting back.  he has a glass jaw.  he expects the media to always bail him out with...'how unfair of her....'

[exopolitician]

hillary also needs to hit this guy.  who cares if keith olbermann whines about it?  hit him and keep hitting.  ive noticed obama isnt good at fighting back.  he has a glass jaw.  he expects the media to always bail him out with...'how unfair of her....'

Negative campaigning is what cost Hillary [along with Bill being the nutcase that he is]. I think its funny that when the media seems to mention Obama more than Hillary [as she is alot of news networks media princess] her campaign and alot of her supporters whine like crazy.