The Delegate Fight: Obama Clinches!

[Erc]

Delegate Slots that Michiganders for Obama [MFO] candidates lost:

(Recall that the Teamsters [who have at least two delegates] have endorsed Obama).

CD 1:  Dick West (Cheboygan Co. Party Chair) lost to Miles Baker.  Miles Baker, a member of Students 4 Obama, is a clear Obama supporter.

CD 2: Melissa Post and Bill Traynor narrowly lost to more establishment candidates, Rillastine Wilkins (fmr. Muskegon Mayor), and Joe Zainea (2nd District Chair).  Both support Obama.

CD 3: MFO did not appear to endorse a male candidate.  Armand Robinson won the seat.  According to The Grand Rapids Press, he is an Obama supporter, and he can be seen sporting a prominently-placed Obama pin in this (Warning: LARGE) picture

CD 7:  No delegates endorsed, though Obama supporters won, according to the Detroit News.

CD 8:  Pauline Johnson-West and James Gill lost to Irene Cahill and Griffin Rivers.  Rivers is chairman of the Ingham Co. Party.  Cahill is an active Teamsters member.  According to the AP, both support Obama.  Rivers wore a "No Drama With Obama" shirt, and saying "I think he'll be a tremendous asset in building the Democratic Party back to the status it once was...the groundswell is there."
There was apparently some 'grumbling' amongst the MFO folks that they might be closet Hillary supporters, however.

CD 9:
Denise Littlejohn lost the second female slot by a narrow margin to Catherine Martin, a UAW member.  Martin is remaining uncommitted as the UAW has not endorsed a candidate.
Bill Maxey lost the male slot to State Legislator Aldo Vagnozzi, who had endorsed Obama well before the January primary.

CD 10:
No male candidate was endorsed, and we don't know who won that slot.

CD 11:
No female candidate was endorsed, and Marion Novak (a Teamsters member and Obama supporter) won the slot.

CD 12:
Solon Phillips, Indira Shelton-Pierce, and Thomasina Lentz all lost to union candidates---Rory Gamble, Jennifer Miller, and Nancy Quarles.  All three are uncommitted---Quarles appears to be an ex-Edwards supporter.  (It's good to see Edwards get some representation, I suppose, as many Uncommitted voters were voting for Edwards).

CD 13:
Robert Mitchell lost to a union candidate.  No female candidates were endorsed, but the media seems to report that a union slate won here.

CD 14:
Edna Bell, Jeanene Bryant, Rick Blocker, and Raymond Solomon (and alternate Edna Moore) all lost to union candidates.

In CDs 4, 5, 6, and 15, the MFO slate swept.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Sounds like it was just a show of strength from the UAW. I doubt they'll endorse Hillary (if they were going to, they would've done so long ago.) and probably were just planning on sitting it out and endorse the eventual winner, which means likely Obama, but whatever. I doubt the slate will even be seated until there's a presumptive winner.

[Erc]

Sounds like it was just a show of strength from the UAW. I doubt they'll endorse Hillary (if they were going to, they would've done so long ago.) and probably were just planning on sitting it out and endorse the eventual winner, which means likely Obama, but whatever. I doubt the slate will even be seated until there's a presumptive winner.

Can't disagree with that analysis.

[Erc]

Doesn't look like we'll get any significant results out of the Washington County Conventions, but nobody was expecting much.  Certain counties (like Benton) aren't even having theirs until next Saturday.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I still haven't heard anything out of Arizona. Odd.

[Erc]

I still haven't heard anything out of Arizona. Odd.

There's really not that much to report (apart from the add-on) out of there, so it's not too surprising.  We'll find out about the add-on eventually.

[Erc]

Reports indicate that all three delegates in MI-12 have endorsed Obama.  As these are very sketchy reports, I'll keep them as Uncommitted for now.

[Tender Branson]

Democrats Abroad Results were released today:

22 delegates (Each overseas delegate to the convention gets half a vote)

Obama: 6.5 votes (13 delegates)

Clinton: 3.5 votes (7 delegates)

2 superdelegates are still undecided.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/21/dems-abroad-slate-ready-for-denver/

[Erc]

Pennsylvania Primary

Closed Primary
187 Delegates
--103 by CD
--55 At-Large
--29 Unpledged

Voting will take place from 7 AM to 8 PM EDT.  This is a closed primary, so only registered Democrats can vote (though there are anecdotal reports of significant registration, even of Republicans, in the last few months).

Bonus delegates:  
For going so late in the season, Pennsylvania has received a 5% bonus in delegates, giving them 5 more district delegates and 2 more at-large delegates (these are incorporated into the totals below).

CD delegates:
3 for CDs: 9
4 for CDs: 5, 10, 16, 17, 19
5 for CDs: 3, 4, 11, 12, 15, 18
6 for CDs: 6
7 for CDs: 1, 7, 8, 13, 14
9 for CDs: 2

At-Large delegates:
35 At-Large
20 Pledged PLEOs

Unpledged Delegates: (15 Clinton - 5 Obama - 9 Uncommitted)
13 DNC members
11 Representatives
1 Senator
1 Governor
3 'Add-Ons' (selected June 7 by the State Democratic Committee)

(Note that Ed Rendell is both Governor and a former DNC chair---this does not mean, however, that he gets two votes at the convention).

[Erc]

Democrats Abroad Results were released today:

22 delegates (Each overseas delegate to the convention gets half a vote)

Obama: 6.5 votes (13 delegates)

Clinton: 3.5 votes (7 delegates)

2 superdelegates are still undecided.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/21/dems-abroad-slate-ready-for-denver/

So, no surprise changes at the Vancouver Convention.

[Erc]

Just for a little update on the whole Idaho situation:

The Idaho Democratic Party has posted a list of all delegates (along with addresses and telephone numbers, think you might be a little too open guys?) and candidate supported here: http://www.idaho-democrats.org/ht/a/GetDocumentAction/i/1165191
It appears Hillary actually did narrowly reach viability despite failing in Ada County, largely due to rounding (for example in a small county with 3 delegates where she gets a little under 20% she gets a delegate, thus 33.33% of the total) and overrepresentation of the rural counties. However it's very close. Out of 380 delegates, she has 58, thus only 2 away from losing viability. If 2 switch/don't show up, she will fail viability.

The convention is in June and by then there might be an overwhelming sentiment the race is over and it's time for Hillary to concede, thus influencing switchers, also if the state convention is in Boise that's a hell of a drive for the delegates from the outer rural areas, many might not bother showing, it's possible you might have a small county with about 20 Hillary supporters, no one really wanting to be a delegate but one being picked just because they need someone, and then that person doesn't bother. I wouldn't even rule out the possibility of the Obama campaign implanting a few "Trojan horses". So for now, Hillary has viability, but it's far from guaranteed.

That applies only to her one at large delegate too. The two allocated by district are directly tied to the votes cast in each district. So she has at least two delegates no matter what, and that third is up in the air.

Upon looking it up, the convention is in Boise. That's as far as a 7 hour drive from places in northern Idaho.

Looking over what they have vs. my projections from February, the differences are:

CD 1:
I messed up in Valley County, and thought Clinton had achieved viability--in fact, she was one vote shy of it.  So, a swing of one delegate to Obama from Clinton.

The pdf has no results available for Lewis County.  Clinton won Lewis County, so she should have one delegate out of here.

Clinton still meets viability, with 15.8% of delegates.

CD 2:

The pdf has no results for Lincoln County, which Obama won---so he should have an additional delegate there.

In Blaine County, my results (and, mind you, the official caucus results on the ID Dem website, as well) had Clinton failing to meet viability by 2 votes, but she apparently won 2 delegates here.

In Power County, my results had her getting 21.8% of the two-way vote, not enough to win one of this county's two delegates.  However, she apparently did win one.  (No, there isn't a rule stating that you have to get a delegate if you made viability, as in Iowa---compare Fremont County, where she won 21.3% of the vote and did not get one of Fremont's two delegates).


If we trust their results for Blaine & Power Counties, and give the one delegate from Lincoln County to Obama, the final result for CD 2 is:

Obama 158
Clinton 28

Clinton has viability by 1 delegate, having 15.05% of delegates.  If I were Obama, I'd challenge the result in Power County---there's no way Clinton should have a delegate there.

In any event, more likely than not, one of the Clinton delegates won't show up and she'll fail to meet viability in CD 2.

If two Clinton delegates fail to show up, she loses viability statewide.



Although I'm extremely skeptical about the Power & Blaine County results, I can't go against a physical list of delegates.  Clinton regains viability in CD 2 and statewide, gaining two delegates from Obama.

New Result: 15 - 3 Obama.

[Erc]

Upon a closer inspection of the Idaho Delegate Selection Plan:

There is a period of recaucusing in Idaho, as in Iowa---voters supporting candidates that failed to meet viability may recaucus.  In Blaine County, Clinton was 2 votes short of viability, but there were 7 Edwards supporters and 28 'Uncommitted' supporters---if more than 15% of these went for Clinton upon recaucusing, she may have been able to gain viability.

"The allocation of National Delegates shall be determined by totaling the votes of all presidential preferences (and uncommitted status, if applicable) that are at or above the 15 percent threshold following the final recaucus for each county, and allocating the available delegates proportionately among them."


Power County is still inexplicable---there were 0 Edwards & 2 Uncommitted supporters.  Even if both of them recaucused to Clinton, she still shouldn't have gotten a delegate.


If we accept the Blaine result, Clinton should have statewide viability.  Only through shenanigans in Power County does she get viability in CD 2.

[Erc]

And, upon even closer reading, all of the discussion about viability is a bit moot, perhaps?

"Idaho is a caucus/convention state. Accordingly, delegate and alternate positions shall be allocated so as to fairly reflect the expressed presidential preference or uncommitted status of the caucus participants in each district. Therefore, the national convention delegates elected at the district level shall be allocated in proportion to the percentage of the caucus vote won in that district by each preference, except that preferences falling below a 15% threshold shall not be awarded any delegates or alternates.  Percentages shall be determined at the County caucus level. (Rule 12.B.)  See Section III.A.2 and 3 for further details."

Even if Clinton doesn't have 15% of the delegates in Boise, she still broke 15% of the popular vote in each district & statewide, so I believe that entitles her to three delegates anyway, if I'm reading this correctly.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I read it as that's the case for the congressional districts but not the state convention. So she's guaranteed her 2 delegates from the districts, but not her state one if too many of her delegates don't  show up/switch.

[Erc]

I read it as that's the case for the congressional districts but not the state convention. So she's guaranteed her 2 delegates from the districts, but not her state one if too many of her delegates don't  show up/switch.

You're right.

"a. At-large delegate and alternate positions shall be allocated among presidential preferences according to...the division of preferences among convention participants...
b. Preferences which have not attained a 15% threshold on a state-wide basis shall not be entitled to any at-large delegates."

But, as it stands right now, given that Clinton met viability in Blaine after recaucusing, she should have viability statewide.  Of course, if three Clinton delegates fail to show up, she loses viability (or, if Obama challenges the Power County results [which appears unlikely as there's only a 10-day window to do so which has probably already passed], she loses statewide viability if one person fails to show up).

So, barring no-shows or defections (which can't be counted on), Clinton should pick up 3 delegates here.

[Erc]

Updated with (very) tentative PA results.

Obama's lead drops by 24, but much of that is due to the introduction of PA's superdelegates into the official count.

[Erc]

The next event of note are the Iowa Congressional District Conventions, to be held this Saturday, April 26.

Iowa, the first state in the Union to vote this year, will finally choose the first of its delegates to Denver this Saturday.

The main question to be answered at these conventions is "What happens to Edwards' support?"  He did place second statewide in January, though much of his support eroded (almost exclusively to Obama) at last month's County Conventions.  Right now, he still has enough support to retain 6 delegates (3 At-Large and 3 CD), but can he hold onto them? Or, will Clinton and/or Obama supporters vote for Edwards tactically to ensure he meets viability and depriving the other candidate of delegates---making Edwards' support increase?

My original discussion on these conventions can be found here and here, earlier in this thread.

In more recent news....it appears that Clinton has learned her lesson from the embarassing County Conventions (where Edwards lost more than half of his support, all to Obama---even causing a loss of one Clinton delegate in CD 5), and is making a serious play for Edwards supporters.

Source

There are five conventions throughout the state, in Dubuque, Mount Vernon, West Des Moines, Boone, and Council Bluffs.  Registration begins at 8 AM, and the Conventions themselves begin at 9 AM Central.

[True Democrat]

Would an Edwards endorsement for either side do anything?

Someone said Elizabeth Edwards is campaigning with Clinton, and even that could swing Edwards delegates a bit.

[Smash255]

I will look at it again when I get home from work and have more time, but I believe the delegate split is 83-75 for Clinton (if she holds onto the small lead in PA-7)

[Verily]

I will look at it again when I get home from work and have more time, but I believe the delegate split is 83-75 for Clinton (if she holds onto the small lead in PA-7)

It's 84-74 if she wins PA-7; 83-75 if she loses it.

[Smash255]

I will look at it again when I get home from work and have more time, but I believe the delegate split is 83-75 for Clinton (if she holds onto the small lead in PA-7)

It's 84-74 if she wins PA-7; 83-75 if she loses it.

Depending on the source the numbers seem to change, Philly.com has PA-1 5-2 and Pa-2 7-2, meanwhile green papers has them 4-3 & 6-3.  Philly.com has much larger vote totals in those districts that green papers, meanwhile in PA-12 Philly.com has it 4-1, and Greenpapers has it 3-2 with higher vote totals on green papers. 

[Verily]

I will look at it again when I get home from work and have more time, but I believe the delegate split is 83-75 for Clinton (if she holds onto the small lead in PA-7)

It's 84-74 if she wins PA-7; 83-75 if she loses it.

Depending on the source the numbers seem to change, Philly.com has PA-1 5-2 and Pa-2 7-2, meanwhile green papers has them 4-3 & 6-3.  Philly.com has much larger vote totals in those districts that green papers, meanwhile in PA-12 Philly.com has it 4-1, and Greenpapers has it 3-2 with higher vote totals on green papers. 

5-2, 7-2 and 4-1 are the results from those districts.

[Smash255]

I will look at it again when I get home from work and have more time, but I believe the delegate split is 83-75 for Clinton (if she holds onto the small lead in PA-7)

It's 84-74 if she wins PA-7; 83-75 if she loses it.

Depending on the source the numbers seem to change, Philly.com has PA-1 5-2 and Pa-2 7-2, meanwhile green papers has them 4-3 & 6-3.  Philly.com has much larger vote totals in those districts that green papers, meanwhile in PA-12 Philly.com has it 4-1, and Greenpapers has it 3-2 with higher vote totals on green papers. 

5-2, 7-2 and 4-1 are the results from those districts.

Thats what I thought.   Philly.com seems to be more accurate than green papers, PA-10 is another district with stark differences.  PA-10 is another district with large differences between the two (in the vote total)   Philly.com has seemed to be more accurate so far, so if they are right that might be one to look at.   As of now according to Philly.com she has a 3-1 lead in the district, but barley has that.  She has 62.69% of the vote with 20% of the precincts remaining, if she dips below 62.5%, its 2-2.

[Verily]

I had 64.5% with 30% remaining, so I don't know. I thought it was unlikely that Clinton would fall below 62.5% then, but if she's that close with 20% remaining, it all depends on what's not reporting. So Clinton could theoretically end up with only 6 net delegates from PA if she falls below the threshold in PA-10 and Obama ends up winning PA-7.

[Smash255]

I had 64.5% with 30% remaining, so I don't know. I thought it was unlikely that Clinton would fall below 62.5% then, but if she's that close with 20% remaining, it all depends on what's not reporting. So Clinton could theoretically end up with only 6 net delegates from PA if she falls below the threshold in PA-10 and Obama ends up winning PA-7.

Well PA-10 just updated again and Clinton is up to 66% with 93% in, so its pretty much going to stay at 3-1.   Pa-7 is still up in the air though.