The Delegate Fight: Obama Clinches!

[gmo]

Interestingly, Obama's "leaked" memo once again (drastically) underestimated his perfomance.

Assuming those future contests are projections, they are expecting close finishes in OH/TX/PA.  I believe those may be overestimating his performance there.  WI & IN as solid wins look optimistic also.

But they are projecting almost exactly a wash from this point forward, and that sure sounds reasonable.

[Flying Dog]

Interestingly, Obama's "leaked" memo once again (drastically) underestimated his perfomance.

Assuming those future contests are projections, they are expecting close finishes in OH/TX/PA.  I believe those may be overestimating his performance there.  WI & IN as solid wins look optimistic also.

But they are projecting almost exactly a wash from this point forward, and that sure sounds reasonable.

Hey, If the trend keeps on continuing and they out-preform their predictions then yah for him.

[Lief 🗽]

The Washington state Democratic chair estimates the following delegate breakdown:
52 Obama
26 Hillary

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ha, identically proportional to Minnesota!

[Smash255]

The Washington state Democratic chair estimates the following delegate breakdown:
52 Obama
26 Hillary

Guess I was wrong in thinking that the margin would be similar to the breakdown we have seen already in the state.  Anyway if that is true and the info on Obama's website after Super Tuesday was right and other sources since it would put Obama at a 1030-947 advantage.

[Erc]

Fixed Washington (I had given 9 too many delegates to the state, so Obama's lead drops by 3), and modified the Republican count (Romney loses his 26 delegates in Michigan by dropping out of the race).

[Erc]

Added preliminary results from the Potomac Primary.

In Virginia, Obama wins all but one CD (CD 9, the far western portion of the state, where he was crushed).  This nets him 54 delegates to Clinton's 29.  The totals could change slightly as more results come in.

In DC, we're still waiting on ward-by-ward breakdown, but unless Obama was under 70% in Wards 1-4 (or Clinton didn't meet viability in Wards 5-8), it looks like 12 Obama - 3 Clinton.

In Maryland, these are very partial results, so it'll be a while before we have a definite delegate result.  Best guess so far is Obama 45 - Clinton 25.

The last Democrats Abroad polling station closed at 11 PM (in Calgary).  We probably won't have definite results (apart from a few sporadic countries) for a while, though.  (If I'm mistaken, I'd be appreciated if I could be directed to results).


Net results of today's primaries:
Obama increases his delegate position immensely.

Amongst pledged delegates, he's up by 134.
Amongst all delegates, he's up by 59.
Even when you throw in MI & FL into that mix, he's only down by 8.

Not looking good for Clinton...every delegate she loses now is another superdelegate she'll have to fight for.

(As usual, my counts of superdelegates only include those from states which have already voted--which I feel is more representative of how the final picture may look.  [Although, at this point, that only excludes 30% of the superdelegates].  As a result, other numbers you see may be more friendly to Clinton amongst all delegates.  Combine that with the usual slowness to assign delegates in caucus states [where Obama does well], and that explains why delegate counts in the news media may not agree with mine).

[Mr. Morden]

According to Wikipedia, there are 1075 pledged delegates in the remaining primaries.  If Clinton is down by 134 pledged delegates, she needs to win more than 56% of the remaining pledged delegates in order to catch up to Obama in pledged delegates (unless she can get the FL/MI delegates restored).  That seems like a *really* tough hill for her to climb, given the PR system for allocating delegates.  Basically, her average margin of victory in all the remaining primaries has to be comparable to her margin of victory in California.

[gmo]

I saw that Politico has a running superdelegates count: http://www.politico.com/superdelegates/

Even when you throw in MI & FL into that mix, he's only down by 8.

That may be the magic number, or at least some variation of it.  If Obama can lead in pledged delegates even with MI & FL in the count, that will be some heft.  If he can somehow after Mar4 lead the count including pledged, decided superdelegates, plus MI & FL, that may be it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This person has the same 134 margin for delegates, although they have fewer allocated.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/13/02536/6000/923/455720

[Verily]

According to Wikipedia, there are 1075 pledged delegates in the remaining primaries.  If Clinton is down by 134 pledged delegates, she needs to win more than 56% of the remaining pledged delegates in order to catch up to Obama in pledged delegates (unless she can get the FL/MI delegates restored).  That seems like a *really* tough hill for her to climb, given the PR system for allocating delegates.  Basically, her average margin of victory in all the remaining primaries has to be comparable to her margin of victory in California.

That's a very problematic number for her. I can see 56% in Texas and Ohio and Pennsylvania, but she's going to get routed in some upcoming states; I think there are few who would argue that Mississippi, Vermont, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota, Hawaii, North Carolina and Wyoming are within reach, and some of those will be blowouts. Significant victories in West Virginia and Kentucky won't cut it to rebound against those.

At best for her, I can see 53% of the remaining delegates, and that's assuming 10-12 point margins in the big states without Idaho and Kansas-style blowouts in some of Obama's strong states.

[gmo]

At best for her, I can see 53% of the remaining delegates, and that's assuming 10-12 point margins in the big states without Idaho and Kansas-style blowouts in some of Obama's strong states.

That might though still be enough for her.  Looking ahead I think OH/TX/PA push the balance of states from somewhat unfavorable to her to somewhat favorable.

More than just being able to hang on, Obama needs to have a more bullet-proof lead - like "even if MI & FL delegates are counted" and/or "even if Clinton's advantage in superdelegates is counted".  That could be the sort of thing to compel the fence-sitting superdelegates his way.

[Mr. Morden]

If Clinton wins 53% of the remaining delegates, then I guess that would cut Obama's pledged delegate lead about in half, which means that even if the FL/MI delegates are reinstated, that just brings Clinton and Obama roughly into parity in pledged delegates (assuming that the uncommitted delegates in MI break heavily for Obama).

[Verily]

If Clinton wins 53% of the remaining delegates, then I guess that would cut Obama's pledged delegate lead about in half, which means that even if the FL/MI delegates are reinstated, that just brings Clinton and Obama roughly into parity in pledged delegates (assuming that the uncommitted delegates in MI break heavily for Obama).

That means the best case for Clinton is basically being even in pledged delegates come the Convention. And there's no way MI and FL are being seated as is anyway. The DNC will end up shelling out the money for caucuses; that's really what the resistance to the plan from the state parties is about.

[Erc]

Thanks to the mods for the sticky.


Comparisions of superdelegate counts:

What I use (DemConWatch):
Clinton: 180
Obama: 105
[Clinton +75]

Politico (mainly based on DemConWatch, but has a few extra sources) [thanks for referring me to this, gmo]
Clinton: 184
Obama: 110
[Clinton +74]

CNN (no sources given, they poll some of the superdelegates themselves)
Clinton: 184
Obama: 123
[Clinton +61]

[Erc]

Final VA results by CD are in, Obama wins delegates 54-29.

Obama is about 170 votes [0.1%] short of winning a fifth delegate in CD 8, so it's possible that result might change...but all precincts in the district are reporting, so it seems unlikely at this point.

[Erc]

Updated the Superdelegate Count.
Obama's now only down 2 in all delegates when MI & FL are included.

Upcoming Contest Details:

February 19:

Wisconsin:
Open Primary
92 Delegates
--48 by CD
--26 At-Large
--18 Unpledged

District Delegates
5 for CDs: 5, 6
6 for CDs: 1, 3, 4, 7, 8
8 for CDs: 2

At-Large Delegates:
16 At-Large
10 Pledged PLEO

Unpledged Delegates:
8 DNC Members (1 Clinton, 1 Obama)
5 Representatives (1 Clinton, 2 Obama)
2 Senators
1 Governor (1 Obama)
2 'Add-Ons' (selected by the Administrative Committee of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, either in early June or mid-August)

Hawaii:
Closed 'Caucus' (Firehouse Primary)
29 Delegates
--13 by District
--7 At-Large
--9 Unpledged

Note that, although this is a caucus, the delegates are to be assigned directly based on the results of the caucus--this is more like MN than IA.

District Delegates:
CD 1: 6 delegates

At-Large Delegates:
4 At-Large
3 Pledged PLEO

Unpledged Delegates:
4 DNC Members (1 Clinton)
2 Representatives (1 Obama)
2 Senators (1 Clinton)
1 Add-On (selected by the State Party Committee, May 25)


Democrats Abroad will be reporting their final numbers on February 21.

[american woman]

Nice list you have going here.  California should be:

   Clinton - 204
   Obama - 166

This is per my own calculations based on California returns at:
http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/dcd/all.htm

Also, Green Papers came up with the same numbers as of today (02/15):
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/CA-D.phtml

[american woman]

Also, for Illinois I have:

Clinton - 49
Obama - 104

This is based on:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2008/by_cd/IL_Page_0205_VD.html

A candidate must have at least 15% in a congressional district to qualify for delegates from that district. There are 2 CDs in Illinois where Senator Clinton only reached 12 or 13%. Most reporting organizations are missing this (including, oddly enough, the Obama campaign).

[Erc]

Thanks, american woman.  My counts are based on the breakdowns as of Feb. 6th or so (when I did the math), so if additional votes have come in here or there, that may change my results.

I'll also give another check-through of the other states to make sure that isn't the case elsewhere.

[Erc]

Nice list you have going here.  California should be:

   Clinton - 204
   Obama - 166

This is per my own calculations based on California returns at:
http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/dcd/all.htm

Also, Green Papers came up with the same numbers as of today (02/15):
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/CA-D.phtml

Obama gained slightly statewide and in a few key CDs in the last portion of counting, which gave him an additional delegate in CDs 16 & 51, and one additional delegate statewide.  (In CD 16, he got that second delegate by a margin of about 22 votes).

So Obama gains three delegates (and thus widens his lead over Clinton by 6 delegates) based on late returns in CA.

[Erc]

Also, for Illinois I have:

Clinton - 49
Obama - 104

This is based on:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2008/by_cd/IL_Page_0205_VD.html

A candidate must have at least 15% in a congressional district to qualify for delegates from that district. There are 2 CDs in Illinois where Senator Clinton only reached 12 or 13%. Most reporting organizations are missing this (including, oddly enough, the Obama campaign).

Late returns gave a boost to Obama in CD 1, pushing Clinton under viability (accounting for one of those two delegates).  A couple of the downstate districts gave Obama two more delegates, to make it 104-49, as you said.

[Erc]

The corrections to CA & IL put Obama in the lead for the first time amongst all delegates (including MI & FL), if one assumes that MI's Uncommitted slate is entirely for Obama.  However, there's no guarantee of this whatsoever.  Obama does not get to review the Uncommitted slate (they're not his, after all), so there could be many Clinton supporters under the "Uncommitted" label.  The uncommitted district delegates are chosen at District Conventions on March 29, while the At-Large delegates are selected by the State Party Central Committee on May 17.

As a result, until we know how those Uncommitted delegates are going to vote, I'm going to put Michigan's Uncommited delegates in with the unpledged PLEOs (which is fair enough, since the Uncommitted delegation could easily split down the middle [or even split for Clinton, depending on who shows up at the District Conventions / who controls the State Party Central Committee]).

As a result, under the new count, Clinton still has a 45-delegate lead when MI & FL are included.

[Tender Branson]

Delegate Estimate until March 4:

Now (Real Clear Politics)

Obama: 1.301 (1.133 Pledged+168 Super)
Clinton: 1.235 (996+239)

Wisconsin (74): Obama 41 - Clinton 33
Hawaii (20): Obama 12 - Clinton 8
Democrats Abroad (7): Obama 5 - Clinton 2

Texas (193): Obama 87 - Clinton 106
Ohio (141): Obama 63 - Clinton 78
Rhode Island (21): Obama 9 - Clinton 12
Vermont (15): Obama 9 - Clinton 6

Total Obama until March 4: 226
Total Clinton until March 4: 245

Total Delegates - March 4:

Obama: 1.527 (1.359+168)
Clinton: 1.480 (1.241+239)

[Person Man]

Is Real Clear Politics a conservative site in practice?

...and I do imagine that NC and MS will combine to create a gap that Clinton's advantages in PA will not be able to overcome.

I see Obama with a 120 pledged delegate advantage coming into May and at least 60 or 70 at the end of the race.