The Delegate Fight: Obama Clinches!

[Flying Dog]

So Obama has taken the lead w/ supers even factored in, correct?

[Flying Dog]

Aren't there still some delegates that haven't been factored in still from Colorado and another state?

[Flying Dog]

Interestingly, Obama's "leaked" memo once again (drastically) underestimated his perfomance.

Assuming those future contests are projections, they are expecting close finishes in OH/TX/PA.  I believe those may be overestimating his performance there.  WI & IN as solid wins look optimistic also.

But they are projecting almost exactly a wash from this point forward, and that sure sounds reasonable.

Hey, If the trend keeps on continuing and they out-preform their predictions then yah for him.

[Flying Dog]

CA: Hillary's final margin of victory: 8.9%. The final delegates will be 203 for Clinton to 167 for Obama.

[Flying Dog]

Without Michigan and FLorida included Clinton probably needs about 60% of the remaining super delegates. Not impossible, imo.

Is that the right way to look at it though?  IMHO, the question isn't what fraction of the supers she needs, as much as it is "What does she need to do in the remaining primaries in order to win those supers?"  Because I just can't see the majority of supers supporting her if she loses both the pledged delegate count and the popular vote.  It's not going to happen.

But if she wins the popular vote, most of the delegates toward the end of race and polls show her having more national support than Obama, all of which are definite possibilities, I don't think it will be that hard. I think it's actually pretty likely that she wins the overall popular vote and I think that pretty much negates the "most pledged delegates" argument.

Definition of wishful thinking.

[Flying Dog]

58-40 65% in.

[Flying Dog]

Thanks for the explanation.

I really think this whole method is just insane. The whole thing is like a bunch of different levels of electoral college. It's 2008. I think we should either go by the popular vote or make the various levels of representation automatic after the actual initial voting.

The thing is that some caucus states don't have concrete evaluations on who turned out for who. Just delegate allocations.