The Delegate Fight: Obama Clinches!

[Tender Branson]

Updated Delegate Estimate:

Base: RCP

Clinton: 1.112 Total Delegates so far (incl. 211 SD) => 901 Pledged Delegates
Obama: 1.096 Total Delegates so far (incl. 137 SD) => 959 Pledged Delegates

Future States Obama will win incl. their number of pledged delegates:

Hawaii (20), Oregon (52), Montana (16), Wyoming (12), South Dakota (15), Wisconsin (74), Mississippi (33), Indiana (72), North Carolina (115), Virginia (83), DC (15), Maryland (70), Maine (24) and Vermont (15).

Total Pledged Delegates: 616 - Obama estimated to receive 55% and Clinton 45% = 339/277

Future States Clinton will win incl. their number of pledged delegates:

Texas (193), Kentucky (51), Ohio (141), West Virginia (28), Pennsylvania (158), Rhode Island (21), Guam (4) and Puerto Rico (55).

Total Pledged Delegates: 651 - Clinton estimated to receive 55% and Obama 45% = 358/293

So from now on, Clinton will receive 635 delegates, Obama 632.

New total among pledged:

Obama: 959 + 632 = 1.591
Clinton: 901 + 635 = 1.536

Super-Delegates-Estimate (796):

Clinton: 448
Obama: 348

Total Delegates as of June 7, 2008:

Clinton: 1.536 + 448 = 1.984
Obama: 1.591 + 348 = 1.939

[Tender Branson]

RCP base as of Sunday at noon

Clinton  1121  Super Delegates 211  Pledge Delegates  910
Obama 1118  Super Delegates 137  Pledge Delegates   981

Clinton +3 overall due to +74 lead in Super delegates

Obama +71 in Pledge delegates

He is starting to really surge

According to CBS, Obama just trails by 2 delegates anymore and 20 are still left to be allocated in Washington and 30 in Colorado ...

http://election.cbsnews.com/campaign2008/d_delegateScorecard.shtml

[Tender Branson]

Delegate Estimate until March 4:

Now (Real Clear Politics)

Obama: 1.301 (1.133 Pledged+168 Super)
Clinton: 1.235 (996+239)

Wisconsin (74): Obama 41 - Clinton 33
Hawaii (20): Obama 12 - Clinton 8
Democrats Abroad (7): Obama 5 - Clinton 2

Texas (193): Obama 87 - Clinton 106
Ohio (141): Obama 63 - Clinton 78
Rhode Island (21): Obama 9 - Clinton 12
Vermont (15): Obama 9 - Clinton 6

Total Obama until March 4: 226
Total Clinton until March 4: 245

Total Delegates - March 4:

Obama: 1.527 (1.359+168)
Clinton: 1.480 (1.241+239)

[Tender Branson]

There are 615 pledged delegates left now (928 if MI & FL re-vote).

Obama currently leads Clinton 1.366 to 1.222 among pledged delegates (RCP).

If Clinton wins 55% of the 615 outstanding delegates, its:

Obama: 1.643
Clinton: 1.560

With FL & MI included, its:

Obama: 1.784
Clinton: 1.732

Clinton would have to win 58% of all remaining pledged delegates to reach parity with Obama if FL and MI are indeed holding a re-vote.

[Tender Branson]

Which candidate will the remaining 21 uncommitted members of the US Senate back ?

Barbara Boxer - CA (won by Clinton)
Ken Salazar - CO (won by Obama)
Joe Biden - DE (won by Obama)
Tom Carper - DE (won by Obama)
Daniel Akaka - HI (won by Obama)
Tom Harkin - IA (won by Obama)
Mary Landrieu - LA (won by Obama)
Ben Cardin - MD (won by Obama)
Carl Levin - MI ("won" by Clinton)
Amy Klobuchar - MN (won by Obama)
Max Baucus - MT (TBD)
Jon Tester - MT (TBD)
Harry Reid - NV (state won by Clinton)
Frank Lautenberg - NJ (won by Clinton)
Jeff Bingaman - NM (won by Clinton)
Sherrod Brown - OH (won by Clinton)
Ron Wyden - OR (TBD)
Jack Reed - RI (won by Clinton)
Jim Webb - VA (won by Obama)
Robert Byrd - WV (TBD)
Herb Kohl - WI (won by Obama)

.....

So far for Obama (13):

Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.)
Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.)
Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.)
Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.)
Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.)
Sen. Tim Johnson (D-S.D.)
Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.)
Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.)
Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.)
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.)
Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.)
Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.)
Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wisc.)

So far for Clinton (13):

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.)
Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.)
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.)
Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii)
Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.)
Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.)
Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.)
Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.)
Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.)
Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.)
Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.)
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich)
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.)

[Tender Branson]

Feingold has already endorsed Obama.

Changed

[Tender Branson]

Isn't Landrieu for Clinton?

Source ?

I thought Evan Bayh was too.

Yes, he endorsed Clinton. He is included in the Clinton column.

[Tender Branson]

According to Democrats Abroad France, Obama has won 13 out of 22 delegates, Clinton 7 and 2 are still uncommitted (?).

[Tender Branson]

Democrats Abroad Results were released today:

22 delegates (Each overseas delegate to the convention gets half a vote)

Obama: 6.5 votes (13 delegates)

Clinton: 3.5 votes (7 delegates)

2 superdelegates are still undecided.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/21/dems-abroad-slate-ready-for-denver/