The Delegate Fight: Obama Clinches!

[gmo]

Good stuff.

Not sure if you are just picking the totals from somewhere, but if you are computing them are you able to see where there are narrowly won delegates or maybe just a count of them?  May be only of academic interest but I think it would be neat to see how many each candidate won just barely.

[gmo]

Interestingly, Obama's "leaked" memo once again (drastically) underestimated his perfomance.

Assuming those future contests are projections, they are expecting close finishes in OH/TX/PA.  I believe those may be overestimating his performance there.  WI & IN as solid wins look optimistic also.

But they are projecting almost exactly a wash from this point forward, and that sure sounds reasonable.

[gmo]

I saw that Politico has a running superdelegates count: http://www.politico.com/superdelegates/

Even when you throw in MI & FL into that mix, he's only down by 8.

That may be the magic number, or at least some variation of it.  If Obama can lead in pledged delegates even with MI & FL in the count, that will be some heft.  If he can somehow after Mar4 lead the count including pledged, decided superdelegates, plus MI & FL, that may be it.

[gmo]

At best for her, I can see 53% of the remaining delegates, and that's assuming 10-12 point margins in the big states without Idaho and Kansas-style blowouts in some of Obama's strong states.

That might though still be enough for her.  Looking ahead I think OH/TX/PA push the balance of states from somewhat unfavorable to her to somewhat favorable.

More than just being able to hang on, Obama needs to have a more bullet-proof lead - like "even if MI & FL delegates are counted" and/or "even if Clinton's advantage in superdelegates is counted".  That could be the sort of thing to compel the fence-sitting superdelegates his way.