Idea for running elections

[afleitch]

I like that idea. One question though. Would it work (with GM guidance) in 'landslide' scenarios, i.e if the opposition unseats the government and incumbents in style.

[afleitch]

As long as each party can win somewhere at this stage then i'm happy

[afleitch]

Good point.

I envisage us as being a nation that's been through alot; slipped into dictatorship in the 1930's-50's and only clawed out because of modern pressures and the death of an aging . A bit like Spain and Portugal but 30 years too late.

Using that as a model gives us a good grounding; an authoritarian, statist (not socialist) culturally conservative government, that has probably had a slow death. It gives us a degree of small parties, some new some old but oppressed formed into left and right blocs.

If we view the nation as being a nation of 'opposites' may I suggest the following

left v right
liberal v conservative (secondary to above)
anti-clerical v clerical (not as important now, mostly historic)
nationalisation v privatisation (state controlled economy at present - where to now?)
centralised state v devolved state
internationalist v isolationist (we've been isolationist for decades, very few nations doing business, self reliant etc)
European v American (to whom do we look re trade, alliance etc - linked with above)

So for example the PRD would be - right, liberal, anti-clerical, pro-privatisation, pro devolution, internationalist and European.

[afleitch]

I think we need to be more flexable. While I can see the need to generate a political landscape I think we are going about it the wrong way. Way need to establish demographics and voting behaviour first. Where do the professionals live? How do they vote on the issue? Which party/bloc appeals to them etc. This probably isn't as time consuming as it looks (as we already know how most people vote Europe wide anyway) and we already have some information to go on. It would be worth doing on a province by province basis.

This means that should a party collapse and another rise then we know roughly what the effects of that would be. It also helps us track the effects of the left and right bloc drifting too far to the wings or to the centre.

[afleitch]

I think we need to be more flexable. While I can see the need to generate a political landscape I think we are going about it the wrong way. Way need to establish demographics and voting behaviour first. Where do the professionals live? How do they vote on the issue? Which party/bloc appeals to them etc. This probably isn't as time consuming as it looks (as we already know how most people vote Europe wide anyway) and we already have some information to go on. It would be worth doing on a province by province basis.

This means that should a party collapse and another rise then we know roughly what the effects of that would be. It also helps us track the effects of the left and right bloc drifting too far to the wings or to the centre.

Actually it would probably take less time to work out than trying to work out party support patterns without that basic foundation. Good idea.

I'm working on a linguistic map based on your map and the descriptions we have. I've tried to keep things realistic and I'll post it later for inspection. It has the 'Englishers' hugging the coast etc

[afleitch]

Things are pretty uniform, but there are a few Portuguse minority outposts etc. Most areas are strongly one or the other the further east you go.

PS - It's more of a linguistic rather than ethnic map. It's first language (ie spoke at home)

[afleitch]

9. Arcadia
Ralliement créditiste d'Antillia does well in the rural Francophone areas, competing with the Conservative Party.  A definite mixture of parties in the urban areas.
[/quote]

I would disagree here. Having a 'Francophone wing' doesn't make you a catch all party that can compete in Arcadia. The same is true of all non-Francophone parties. Never underestimate voters voting agaionst their economic self interest in favour of linguistic or ethnic self identification. PRD for example is also economically liberal ; it has the most right of centre economic policy (following the rule of thumb in western Europe that if conservative parties are economically centrist, the liberal party are further to the right) As such it is a party of urban bureaucrats, the middle class, civil servants (and thus strong in Charlesville) but also of landowning famers.

If I was being completely honest, I don't see the Social Credit Party performing well outside a few historic regions anyway on account of the existance of both SDP and Labour (who would do well in mopping up the economic left vote). It would also fair poorly in urban areas with a high cultural mix and a younger electorate. A party like Social Credit would only perform well outside the blocs as a protest vote or inside the right bloc as social conservatism seems to be fairly unique trait in the SCP.

[afleitch]

As for your dismissive comment about the RCA, I'd like to point out that the historical Social Credit Party of Canada on which I have to some had a similar Anglophone/Francophone wing structure, even splitting for a time which led to their eventual collapse, and that at the Federal level the Quebecers enjoyed more success.

I'm not being dismissive. I just think people are in danger of being carried away when it comes to who can win what. Parties like Social Credit, PRD, Social Liberal etc will really be picking up the scraps (hence the need for blocs - for survival) I don't see PRD under a FPTP system winning outside suburban Arcadia for example. As for Social Credit, yes I don't see such an ideology already in terminal decline worldwide breaking 10% nationwide. If we are playing this in 1991 with increasing social liberalism throughout the 90's, Social Credit support is likely to decline and the average SC voter age. As I said that's not dismissive. It's just being honest.

The big parties will be either PC, ACP and Labour, SDP. So goes the way of most political systems in western Europe. But we will need them as they will need us to reach the magic 50% mark

As for the map, it can be misleading unless it's read the way Al said; these are not equal divisions. I'm creating a map based on that for say 5000 per seat, just because it works as a better visual. For example that large Labour red area rural area in the north west contains only around 10000 people but the small Social Liberal held division would hold twice as much (bear in mind that in the province descriptions, cities often hold over half of the provincial population)

[afleitch]

Wait, I thought Antillia used a PR system, either parallel or MMP, rather than FPTP. I might be mistaken but I thought that was what was agreed upon.

Oh it does IIRC. I was pointing out that Als map does not, nor did it attempt to, divide the country into areas of equal population and that should a FPTP map be drawn it would look radically different due to a large rural-urban split.

[afleitch]

In North America, India, and Africa, I'd argue that the period of the 1990's was by and large a period of increasing social conservatism.

In the USA possibly (that is actually debatable but it's one that's been going on for years) I don't see us emulating India or Africa. We don't have that sort of economic development or society. We have a broadly European culture and history.

All I'm saying is that as we have the benefit of 'foresite' in this game, a party like Social Credit is going to have to adapt. As too are other parties, like Labour and SDP to the advent of the Clinton-Blair Third Way school. My point about an 'aging' SC voter is an example. Is a young 20 something left of centre urbanite going to vote for the SC? No, not if he is increasingly socially liberal. The SDP/Labour will satisfy his left of centre economic viewpoint. In 1991, a party like Social Credit is likely to throw about Huckabee-esque statements about the threat of AIDS etc just as the PRD is going to try and privatise everything that moves.

You can see how both of those messages would eventually grow stale

It's honestly nothing personal, it's just an aside about the future viability of a party like Social Credit within context.